Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Fragrances loses its lustre before COVID-19
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- Figure 1: UK central forecast value sales of fragrances and body sprays (prepared 17 July 2020), 2015-25
- The impact of COVID-19 on fragrances
- COVID-19 accelerates the decline
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- Figure 2: Expected impact of COVID-19 on fragrances in the short, medium and long term, 17 July 2020
- COVID-will drive conscious consumerism
- Growth in self-care can create new usage occasions
- Companies and brands
- NPD growth not enough to boost sales
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- Figure 3: New product launches in the fragrance and body-spray category, by launch type, January 2017-June 2020
- The consumer
- Usage dips as repertoires decline
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- Figure 4: Types of fragrance formats used, June 2019 and June 2020
- Unisex fragrances have niche appeal
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- Figure 5: Types of fragrance scents used, June 2020
- COVID-19 drives down fragrance usage
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- Figure 6: Change in frequency of fragrance usage since the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, June 2020
- Value for money is the priority
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- Figure 7: Fragrance purchase drivers, June 2020
- Consumers are torn between masstige and prestige
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- Figure 8: Average spend on fragrances, June 2020
- Eco-ethical concerns offer premiumisation opportunities
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- Figure 9: Factors that would encourage higher value purchases, June 2020
- In-store trial remains influential
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- Figure 10: Fragrance purchase journey, June 2020
- Fragrance recommendations need to evolve
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- Figure 11: Interest in fragrance innovations, June 2020
- Demand for affordable fine fragrances is strong
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- Figure 12: Fragrance usage and purchase behaviours, June 2020
- What we think
The Impact of COVID-19 on Fragrances
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- The market
- Significant disruptions in 2020
- Brand preferences will shift
- The online channel gains prominence
- Companies and brands
- Christmas gifting needs a new approach in 2020
- Brands innovate for changing consumer demands
- Marketing strategies evolve in response to disruption
- Discounting will erode brand perceptions
- Brands can get creative on social media
- The consumer
- Spending power has been impacted
- Social distancing subdues fragrance usage
- Masstige fragrances will gain prominence
- The ‘doing more with less’ mindset will shape purchase decisions
- Offer affordable alternatives to fine fragrances
Issues and Insights
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- Respond to price sensitivity with value-driven propositions
- The facts
- The implications
- Reimagine the online experience for the post-COVID-19 era
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- COVID-19 accelerates value sales decline
- A hit to disposable incomes will create challenges
- Unisex growth boosted by innovation
- Channel disruption in 2020 will have a lasting impact
- Masstige disruption expected to accelerate
- Pressure mounting on brands to embrace sustainability
Market Size and Forecast
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- Significant disruption in the short term
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- Figure 13: Expected impact of COVID-19 on fragrances in the short, medium and long term, 17 July 2020
- Short term
- Medium term
- Long term
- Sales were in decline before COVID-19
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- Figure 14: UK value sales of fragrances and body sprays (prepared 17 July 2020), 2015-25
- A slow recovery expected
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- Figure 15: UK central forecast value sales of fragrances and body sprays (prepared 17 July 2020), 2015-25
- A recession will drive masstige popularity
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- Figure 16: UK value sales of fragrances and body sprays, 2007-17
Market Segmentation
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- Unisex fragrances continue to outperform
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- Figure 17: UK retail value sales of fragrances, by sector, 2018-20 (est)
- Innovation needed to boost demand for body sprays
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- Figure 18: UK retail value sales of body sprays, by sector, 2018-20
Channels to Market
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- Online-only and discount retailers gain ground in fragrances
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- Figure 19: UK retail value sales of fragrances only, by outlet type, 2019-20
- Health and beauty specialists suffer from COVID-19 disruption
- Grocers see their share of body spray sales fluctuate
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- Figure 20: UK retail value sales of body sprays only, by outlet type, 2019-20
Market Drivers
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- COVID-19 hits consumer confidence
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- Figure 21: Mintel’s financial confidence index, January 2015-June 2020
- Consumer spending power will be impacted
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- Figure 22: Real wage growth – average weekly earnings vs inflation, June 2018-May 2020
- Online growth driven by savvy shopping habits
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- Figure 23: Channels used to purchase fragrances in the last 12 months, by gender, June 2020
- Store experience influences prestige shoppers
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- Figure 24: Sources of information when buying prestige BPC products, October 2019
- Consumers want more for their money
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- Figure 25: BPC purchase behaviours, October 2019
- A reliance on gifting
- Young consumers drive demand for natural fragrances
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- Figure 26: Types of fragrances typically purchased, by age and gender, April 2020
- Green penetration lags behind
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- Figure 27: Purchase of eco-friendly and regular BPC products, by category, November 2019
- Population trends will influence demand
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- Figure 28: Projected trends in the age structure of the population, 2018-28
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Mixed results from the leading players
- Increased NPD driven by unisex launches
- Wellbeing launches gain traction in 2020
- Fragrance advertising is highly competitive
- Marketing efforts pivot amidst COVID-19 disruption
- Disruptive brands continue to have a niche following
Market Share
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- L’Oréal and Chanel outperform in fragrances
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- Figure 29: Manufacturer shares in fragrances, top four and other, 2018 and 2019
- So…? continues its winning streak in body sprays
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- Figure 30: Brand shares in body sprays, years ending May 2019 and 2020
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- NPD remains robust
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- Figure 31: New product launches in the fragrance and body-spray category, by launch type, January 2017-June 2020
- Elevate fragrances through collaborations
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- Figure 32: Examples of fragrance product launches carrying collaborative claims, 2019-20
- Sustainable ingredient sourcing is a priority
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- Figure 33: Examples of fragrance product launches carrying eco/ethical claims, 2020
- Packaging innovation needed to drive eco engagement
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- Figure 34: Fastest growing and declining claims in the fragrance and body spray category, 2018-19
- Aromatherapy fragrances align with the growth in the wellbeing trend
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- Figure 35: Top 5 claims in the fragrance and body spray category (based on 2020), January 2017-June 2020
- Retro scents evoke nostalgic sentiments
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- Figure 36: Examples of fragrance product launches carrying aromatherapy claims, 2020
- Limited edition fragrances gain momentum
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- Figure 37: Examples of fragrance product launches carrying limited edition claims, 2020
- Women’s fragrances regain ground in 2020
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- Figure 38: New product launches in the fragrance and body spray category, by sub-category, January 2017-June 2020
- COVID-19 presents brand extension opportunities
- LVMH dominates fragrance NPD
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- Figure 39: New product launches in the fragrance and body spray category, by ultimate company, 2019
- Unilever and So…? compete for body spray sales
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- Figure 40: Examples of new product launches in the body spray segment, 2019
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Advertisers up the ante later in the year
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- Figure 41: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on fragrances, January 2017-May 2020
- Fragrance brands respond to changing consumer sentiment
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- Figure 42: Penhaligon’s Homepage, July 2020
- TV advertising dominates expenditure
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- Figure 43: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on fragrances, by media type, January 2017-May 2020
- Online engagement has become more important
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- Figure 44: Jo Loves Instagram, April 2020
- L’Oréal Luxe continues to lead spending
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- Figure 45: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on fragrances, 2019
- Men’s fragrance advertising lags behind
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- Figure 46: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on fragrances, by product type, Jan 2017-May 2020
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 47: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, July 2020
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 48: Key metrics for selected brands, July 2020
- Brand attitudes: Molton Brown benefits from strong brand awareness
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- Figure 49: Attitudes, by brand, July 2020
- Brand personality: Floral Street and NEOM are seen as ethical
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- Figure 50: Brand personality – macro image, July 2020
- Influencer and celebrity brands lead on glamour
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- Figure 51: Brand personality – micro image, July 2020
- Brand analysis
- Molton Brown in a strong position to make gains in fragrance
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- Figure 52: User profile of Molton Brown, July 2020
- Ariana Grande Fragrances youthful image sets it apart
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- Figure 53: User profile of Ariana Grande Fragrances, July 2020
- KAYALI benefits from its sister brand’s strength
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- Figure 54: User profile of KAYALI, July 2020
- NEOM is innovative and efficacious, but wellbeing claims may be lost
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- Figure 55: User profile of NEOM, July 2020
- Floral Street battles with limited brand awareness
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- Figure 56: User profile of Floral Street, July 2020
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Fragrances see a reduction in spend
- Consumers reduce their fragrance repertoire
- Encouraging more frequent usage will be challenging
- Mood enhancing claims and limited editions add value
- Fragrance discovery is reliant on physical stores
- Consumers want personalised recommendations
- Affordable formats set to gain popularity
The Impact of COVID-19 on Beauty Consumers
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- Consumers cut back on overall BPC spend
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- Figure 57: Change in BPC spending since the start of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, by age, 18-30 June 2020
- Fragrances are hard hit by reduced spend
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- Figure 58: BPC categories that have seen a reduction in spending since the start of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, 18-30 June 2020
- The outbreak has changed consumer priorities
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- Figure 59: Why consumers have reduced BPC spending since the start of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, 18-30 June 2020
- Newness can be used to encourage spending
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- Figure 60: Why consumers have increased BPC spending since the start of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, 18-30 June 2020
- Where consumers shop for beauty is changing
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- Figure 61: Changes to selected shopping behaviours since the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, 9-15 July 2020
- Value for money doesn’t necessarily mean discounts
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- Figure 62: How BPC spending habits will change if consumers face an income squeeze, 18-30 June 2020
- Brands with a conscience will resonate
- Encourage experimentation with added value
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- Figure 63: Neom Instagram, June 2020
Types of Fragrances Used
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- Fragrance usage dips in 2020
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- Figure 64: Types of fragrance formats used, June 2019 and June 2020
- Eco-friendly concerns impact repertoires
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- Figure 65: Repertoire of fragrance formats used, June 2020
- Usage continues to be driven by young consumers
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- Figure 66: Types of fragrance formats used, by age and gender, June 2020
- Young consumers embrace unisex scents
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- Figure 67: Types of fragrance scents used, by age, June 2020
Frequency of Fragrance Usage
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- Once a day usage reigns supreme
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- Figure 68: Frequency of fragrance usage, by age, June 2020
- Older consumers save it for a special occasion
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- Figure 69: Purchase of fragrances for different occasions, by age and gender, June 2010
- Usage frequency impacted by COVID-19
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- Figure 70: Change in frequency of fragrance usage since the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, June 2020
Fragrance Purchasing
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- Price is the priority when buying fragrances
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- Figure 71: Fragrance purchase drivers, June 2020
- Demand for quality drives prestige purchasing
- Fragrance spend is evenly distributed
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- Figure 72: Average spend on fragrances, June 2020
- Young consumers are less willing to spend
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- Figure 73: Fragrance price positioning, by age, June 2020
- Limited editions could boost market value
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- Figure 74: Factors that would encourage higher value purchases, June 2020
- Sustainability can drive premiumisation
Fragrance Discovery
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- Stores remain influential
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- Figure 75: Fragrance purchase journey, June 2020
- Innovation needed at store level to restore trust
- There are also opportunities to offer an elevated experience.
- Avestan reimagines the in-store experience
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- Figure 76: Avestan flagship store in London, 2019
- Connect the online and offline worlds
- Create hype to attract consumers back in store
- Men and women approach fragrance discovery differently
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- Figure 77: Fragrance purchase journey, by gender, June 2020
- Young consumers are embracing online research
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- Figure 78: Fragrance purchase journey, by age, June 2020
- Social media is driving purchasing
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- Figure 79: Fragrance purchase after viewing social media content, June 2020
Interest in Fragrance Innovations
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- Online fragrance recommendations need to evolve
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- Figure 80: Interest in fragrance innovations, June 2020
- Emotive fragrances present opportunities to boost value purchases
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- Figure 81: Willingness to pay more for fragrances that enhance mood, by age and gender, June 2020
- Target men and women with different in-store experiences
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- Figure 82: Interest in fragrance innovations, by gender, June 2020
- Youth experimentation boosts interest in fragrance devices
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- Figure 83: Interest in fragrance innovations, by age, June 2020
Fragrance Usage and Purchase Behaviours
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- An income squeeze will drive demand for greater affordability
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- Figure 84: Fragrance usage and purchase behaviours, June 2020
- Men are driven by brand name
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- Figure 85: Agreement with select fragrance usage and purchase behaviours, by gender, June 2020
- Collaborations appeal to young consumers
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- Figure 86: Agreement with select fragrance usage and purchase behaviours, by age, June 2020
- Fragrance wardrobes popular amongst affluent Millennials
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- Figure 87: Fragrances – CHAID – Tree output, June 2020
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- Figure 88: Fragrances – CHAID – Table output, June 2020
- CHAID-analysis methodology
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
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