Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
- A tale of two “dairies”
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales of dairy products, 2017-
Impact of COVID-19 on Dairy
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- Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on dairy, July 2020
- Opportunities and Challenges
- Re-emergence
- Staying close to home may mean sticking with flavor favorites…
- Repertoires at risk for recessional scaling back
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- Figure 3: Repertoire of types of dairy consumed, by age group, April 2020
- Reinforce the healthy, indulgent virtues of dairy and non-dairy alternatives
- Recovery
- Targeted flavor innovation can help consumers manage a recession
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- Figure 4: Consumer spending on food at home, monthly, 2006-10
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Market Landscape – What You Need to Know
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- Flavor innovation should be targeted at adventurous consumers
- Health should be highlighted but taste is still priority
- Cross-variety flavor movement can create new experiences
State of the Market
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- Dairy alternatives are shaking up the super-category
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- Figure 5: Total US retail sales of dairy products, 2017-19
- Top varieties reach consumers through versatility
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- Figure 6: Dairy varieties, April 2020
- Adventurous consumers should be targeted through less mainstream categories
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- Figure 7: Dairy varieties by new flavor trial, April 2020
- Sweet dairy flavors lean into the indulgent side
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- Figure 8: TURF analysis – go-to flavors - sweet, April 2020
- Savory dairy flavor go-tos are traditional
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- Figure 9: TURF analysis – go-to flavors – savory, April 2020
Market Perspective
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- Consumers are balancing taste with nutrition
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- Figure 10: Dairy attitudes, April 2020
- Dairy products’ answer to consumer health priorities
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- Figure 11: Health benefits priorities, December 2019
Market Factors
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- Recession may disrupt product choice, repertoire
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- Figure 12: Repertoire of types of dairy consumed, April 2020
- COVID cautious shoppers may stick with favorites
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- Figure 13: Coronavirus behaviors, April-July 2020
- The role for health and wellbeing is a natural fit for dairy
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- Figure 14: COVID-19-related changes in priorities, higher priority, July, 2020
- Young consumers are adopting dairy alternatives as product offerings increase
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- Figure 15: Dairy alternatives – household usage, March 2020
- Foodservice flavors stay in the realm of the familiar
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- Figure 16: Dairy flavors on US menus Q4 2016-19
- Top flavors can shift across varieties to create a new experience
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- Figure 17: Savory flavors, by dairy varieties, April 2020
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- Figure 18: Sweet flavors, by dairy varieties, April 2020
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Super sweet and simple flavors have resonated
- Brands continue to added health benefits in upcoming innovation
- Future flavor is still based in the familiar
Product Development – Now – Current Flavor Trends
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- Brands play up the fun side of dessert-inspired flavors
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- Figure 19: Purchase intent of dessert-flavored dairy products, August 2020
- Figure 20: Perception of dessert-flavored dairy products, August 2020
- Coconut trends among traditional and alternative products
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- Figure 21: Experience and future interest in coconut flavor by age group, April 2020
- Brands keep it sweet and simple
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- Figure 22: Interest in maple as a dairy flavor, by generation, April 2020
- Reinventing cottage cheese through unexpected flavor innovation
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- Figure 23: Current savory flavor consumption, by generation, April 2020
Product Development – Near – What to Watch For
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- Anti-inflammatory, turmeric gaining steam with all ages
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- Figure 24: Interest in turmeric as a dairy flavor, by generation April 2020
- Protein + antioxidants bring collagen mainstream
- Herbal and vegetable flavors hold familiarity and future interest
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- Figure 25: Trial and interest in herbal and vegetable dairy flavors, April 2020
Product Development – Next – What’s in the Pipeline
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- Superfood spectrum offers opportunity for both mainstream and emerging brands
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- Figure 26: Interest and experience with dairy flavors, April 2020
- Warm, spiced flavors build on a current go-to
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- Figure 27: Future interest in cardamom as a dairy flavor, April 2020
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Consumers are hesitant in the dairy category
- Women over 35 years old are most active in the dairy aisle
- Younger consumers seek flavor, yet require more engagement with traditional dairy
Flavor Exploration with Dairy
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- Most dairy consumers aren’t active flavor seekers
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- Figure 28: New flavor trial, April 2020
- Age and income are factors for flavor exploration
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- Figure 29: New flavor trial, by age and income, April 2020
Dairy Varieties Consumed
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- Stand-alone varieties are fit for flavor
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- Figure 30: Dairy varieties, April 2020
- Consumers over 35 are most active in the dairy aisle
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- Figure 31: Repertoire of types of dairy consumed, by age group, April 2020
- Dairy consumption patterns strongest among women
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- Figure 32: Varieties, by gender, April 2020
Dairy Flavor Attitudes
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- Consumers are split on exploring new dairy flavors
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- Figure 33: Dairy attitudes, April 2020
- Protein aligns the ages
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- Figure 34: Dairy attitudes, by generation, April 2020
- Dessert inspired flavors channel indulgence for female consumers
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- Figure 35: Dairy attitudes, by gender, April 2020
Now – Primary Dairy Flavors
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- Super sweet flavors rise to the top of the go-to list
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- Figure 36: Current sweet dairy flavors, April 2020
- Top savory favors are niche, and sometimes just plain and simple
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- Figure 37: Current savory dairy flavors, April 2020
- Highly engaged consumers lead flavor consumption
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- Figure 38: Savory dairy flavor consumption, by repertoire of varieties, April 2020
- Figure 39: Sweet dairy flavor consumption, by repertoire of varieties, April 2020
Next – Dairy Flavor Experience and Interest
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- The Sweet side
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- Figure 40: Correspondence analysis – symmetrical map – flavor innovation – sweet, April 2020
- Fruit and function can balance something known, something new
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- Figure 41: Interest and experience with sweet dairy flavors, April 2020
- Asian and Hispanic consumers most interested in emerging flavors
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- Figure 42: Interest in sweet dairy flavors, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2020
- The savory side
- Consumers’ interest in savory dairy flavors
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- Figure 43: Correspondence analysis – symmetrical map – flavor innovation – savory, April 2020
- Consumer awareness of savory flavors high, trial low
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- Figure 44: Interest and experience with savory dairy flavors, April 2020
- Gen Z, Millennials express interest in flavor innovation
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- Figure 45: Interest in emerging flavors, by generation, April 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
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