Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Forecast of consumer spending on full-service restaurants and pubs/bars, IoI, 2015-20
- Market factors
- Foodservice prices continue to increase in 2020
- Consumer sentiment struggles
- Foodservice pivots towards takeaway and this could continue beyond lockdown
- Impact of COVID-19 on restaurants and pub catering
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- Figure 2: Indexed consumer spending on full-service restaurants and pubs/bars (includes spending on food and beverages), IoI, 2015-25
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- Figure 3: Expected impact of COVID-19 on restaurants and pubs, short, medium and long term, 16th July 2020
- Who’s innovating?
- The consumer
- Restaurants preferred over pubs
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- Figure 4: Types of restaurants and pubs that consumers have dined in in the last three months, NI and RoI, April 2020
- RoI consumers more likely to have dinner in pubs
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- Figure 5: Occasions consumers have dined in a restaurant or pub/bar in the last three months, NI and RoI, April 2020
- Alcohol a favourite in pubs and restaurants
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- Figure 6: Types of drinks drunk at a restaurant or pub/bar in the last three months, NI and RoI, April 2020
- Quality is the biggest driver when deciding where to eat
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- Figure 7: Factors consumers prioritise when choosing a pub or restaurant to dine in, NI and RoI, April 2020
- The service is important to consumers
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- Figure 8: Agreement with statements related to the dining out experience, NI and RoI, April 2020
- Precautions should be made for COVID-19
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- Figure 9: Agreement with statements related to the dining out experience, NI and RoI, April 2020
- What we think
Impact of COVID-19 on Restaurants and Pub Catering
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- Short-, medium- and long-term impact on the industry
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- Figure 10: Expected impact of COVID-19 on restaurants and pubs, short, medium and long term, 16th July 2020
- Opportunities and Threats
- Lockdown prompts premium foodservice providers to go online
- Restaurants and pubs have been altered significantly and it comes at a cost
- Clear communication and signage vital to ease consumers’ worries
- Long and difficult recovery ahead
- Impact on the restaurant and pub catering market
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- Figure 11: Index of consumer spending on full-service restaurants and pubs/bars (includes spending on food and beverages), IoI, 2015-25
- How the crisis will affect pubs and restaurants’ key consumer segments
- Consumers look forward to dining out
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- Figure 12: How consumers expect spending on ‘dining out’ to change in the next month, IoI, 7 July 2020
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- Figure 13: Consumer comfort levels with going to a restaurant/bar, indoors vs outdoors, IoI, 8 July 2020
- Figure 14: Consumers who are comfortable with going to a restaurant/bar, indoors vs outdoors, by age, IoI, 8 July 2020
- Providing safety and ‘a good time’ will be key for restaurants and pubs
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- Figure 15: Agreement with the statement ‘Pubs/bars/restaurants should take special precautions due to the coronavirus outbreak to ensure all cutlery/glassware is sterilised’, by age, NI and RoI, April 2020
- Deliveries will remain vital even when restaurants reopen
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- Figure 16: Consumers who expect to spend more on home delivery and takeaway food in the next month, IoI, by age, 8 July 2020
- How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the restaurant and pub sector
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- Figure 17: Estimated value of the Irish foodservice market (at consumer prices), NI and RoI, 2008-13
- Marketing Mix
- COVID-19: Market context
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- COVID-19 sees pubs and restaurants making drastic changes
- Restaurants and pubs set for a tough year financially
- Foodservice prices continue to increase in 2020
- Consumer sentiment takes a hit
- Foodservices boost takeaway offerings
Market Size and Forecast
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- Spending in full-service restaurants forecast to drop by a third in 2020
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- Figure 18: Forecast of consumer spending on full-service restaurants, IoI, NI and RoI, 2015-25
- Forecast looks brighter for restaurants
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- Figure 19: Indexed consumer spending on full-service restaurants, NI and RoI, 2015-25
- Pubs forecast to see a 42% cut in spending in 2020
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- Figure 20: Forecast of consumer spending on pubs and bars, IoI, NI and RoI, 2015-25
- Forecast shows Irish pubs are in for a tough couple of years
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- Figure 21: Indexed consumer spending on pubs, NI and RoI, 2015-25
Market Drivers
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- Foodservice prices on the rise
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- Figure 22: Price index for restaurant and cafés, UK (including NI), April 2018-April 2020
- Figure 23: Price index for restaurant and cafés, RoI, April 2018-April 2020
- Consumers more likely to be ‘worse off’ financially
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- Figure 24: Financial health of Irish consumers, NI and RoI, March 2019 and April 2020
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- Figure 25: How financial situations have changed since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, IoI, 25 May 2020
- Takeaway becomes vital for restaurants
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- Figure 26: Netted frequency consumers buy takeaway and/or home delivery food, NI and RoI, September 2019
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- Figure 27: Consumers who have bought takeaway food (eg Deliveroo, Just Eat) in the last three months, by age, NI and RoI, November 2019
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- Figure 28: Agreement with the statement ‘More restaurants should offer take-out/ delivery options during the coronavirus/COVID-19 outbreak’, NI and RoI, April 2020
Companies and Innovations – What You Need to Know
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- COVID-19 prompts businesses to rethink outdoor space
- Pubs look to minimise risk when reopening
- Pubs-on-wheels emerge in NI
Who’s Innovating?
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- Restaurants utilise outdoor space
- Ordering apps curb unnecessary contact
- Dining screens find a market
- Bringing the pub to you
- Restaurant meal kits bridge the gap
- Social distancing clubbing emerges
- Alcohol-free pubs become more mainstream
Companies and Brands
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- Restaurants
- Boojum
- Key facts
- Menu portfolio
- Recent developments
- Deanes Restaurant Group
- Key facts
- Menu portfolio
- Recent developments
- Eddie Rocket’s
- Key facts
- Menu portfolio
- Recent developments
- PizzaExpress/Milano
- Key facts
- Menu portfolio
- Recent developments
- The Restaurant Group
- Key facts
- Menu portfolio
- Recent developments
- Pubs
- Beannchor Group
- Key facts
- Menu portfolio
- Recent developments
- Louis Fitzgerald Group
- Key facts
- Menu portfolio
- Recent developments
- Mercantile Group
- Key facts
- Menu portfolio
- Recent developments
- Wine Inns Ltd
- Key facts
- Menu portfolio
- The Smith Pub Group
- Key facts
- Menu portfolio
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Restaurants preferred over pubs
- RoI consumers more likely to have dinner in pubs
- Alcoholic beverages a mealtime favourite
- Quality is the biggest driver when deciding where to eat
- Quality service important but consumers also want a memorable experience
Types of Restaurants and Pubs Visited
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- Restaurants prove more popular for dining compared to pubs
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- Figure 29: Dining in restaurants vs pubs, by age, NI and RoI, April 2020
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- Figure 30: Agreement with statements related to beer, by gender, NI and RoI, March 2019
- Italian tops Irish restaurants
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- Figure 31: Types of restaurants and pubs that consumers have dined in in the last three months, NI and RoI, April 2020
- Italian restaurants hold strong appeal
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- Figure 32: Top three restaurants consumers have dined in in the last three months, NI and RoI, Aril 2020
- Coffee shops used more by younger consumers
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- Figure 33: Consumers who have eaten at a coffee shop/café in the last three months, by gender and age, NI and RoI, April 2020
Occasions for Dining Out in Restaurants and Pubs
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- Dinner proves to be top occasion to dine out
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- Figure 34: Occasions consumers have dined in a restaurant or pub/bar in the last three months, NI and RoI, April 2020
- NI consumers prefer restaurants for dinner
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- Figure 35: Occasions consumers have dined in a restaurant or pub/bar in the last three months, NI, April 2020
- RoI consumers prefer the pub for dinner
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- Figure 36: Occasions consumers have dined in a restaurant or pub/bar in the last three months, RoI, April 2020
Drinking Habits in Restaurants vs Pubs
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- Alcohol most likely to be drunk in a pub or restaurant
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- Figure 37: Types of drinks drunk at a restaurant or pub/bar in the last three months, NI and RoI, April 2020
- Younger consumers significantly less likely to drink in restaurants
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- Figure 38: Consumers who have drunk an alcoholic drink (eg beer, wine) when dining in a restaurant in the last three months, by gender and age, NI and RoI, April 2020
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- Figure 39: Consumers who have drunk a fizzy drink when dining in a restaurant in the last three months, by age, NI and RoI, April 2020
- Men more likely to drink in the pub
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- Figure 40: Consumers who have drunk an alcoholic drink (eg beer, wine) when dining in a pub/bar in the last three months, by gender, NI and RoI, April 2020
Important Factors for Dining Selection
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- Quality is king but price is still important
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- Figure 41: Factors consumers prioritise when choosing a pub or restaurant to dine in, NI and RoI, April 2020
- Convenience proves to be a key driver for rural consumers
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- Figure 42: Consumers who prioritise how convenient the location is when choosing a pub or restaurant to dine in, by residence, NI and RoI, April 2020
- Price more important to lower-income households
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- Figure 43: Consumers who prioritise the price of food when choosing a pub or restaurant to dine in, by social class, NI and RoI, April 2020
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- Figure 44: Consumers who prioritise the price of food when choosing a pub or restaurant to dine in, by how they think their financial situation will improve in the next 12 months, NI and RoI, April 2020
- Quality more important to older consumers
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- Figure 45: Consumers who prioritise the quality of food when choosing a pub or restaurant to dine in, by age, NI and RoI, April 2020
Dining Out Experience
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- Knowledge is an appealing quality in pubs and restaurants
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- Figure 46: Agreement with statements related to the dining out experience, NI and RoI, April 2020
- Full-time workers interested in happy hour
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- Figure 47: Agreement with the statement ‘Pubs/bars/restaurants should offer more happy hour meal deals’, by working status, NI and RoI, April 2020
- Mature consumers more interested in knowledgeable staff
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- Figure 48: Agreement with the statement ‘Pub/bar/restaurant staff should be able to explain aspects of a dish (eg ingredients, sourcing etc)’, by age, NI and RoI, April 2020
- Younger consumers find themed pubs appealing
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- Figure 49: Agreement with the statement ‘Themed pubs/bars/restaurants appeal to me’, by age, NI and RoI, April 2020
Attitudes towards Restaurants and Pub Catering
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- COVID-19 remains a concern and restaurants must adapt
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- Figure 50: Agreement with statements related to dining in restaurants and pubs, NI and RoI, April 2020
- Food quality considered high in Irish pubs/restaurants
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- Figure 51: Agreement with the statement ‘The quality of food in Irish pubs/bars/restaurants is high’, by age, NI and RoI, April 2020
- Figure 52: Factors worth paying more for, NI and RoI, June 2018
- Sustainability remains a key issue among IoI consumers
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- Figure 53: Agreement with the statements ‘Pubs/bars/restaurants should stop selling food and drink in non-recyclable packaging (eg crisp packets)’ and ‘Pubs/bars/restaurants should do more to tackle food waste’, NI and RoI, April 2020
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Data sources
- Generational cohort definitions
- Abbreviations
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