Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Rail, bus, tube & tram journeys totalled 7.9 billion in 2019/20
- Bus travel is in long-term decline while train travel continues to expand
- Light rail reached record levels prior to COVID disruption
- An estimated £2 billion spend on taxis in ‘normal’ times
- All public transport segments will see biggest ever recorded drop in 2020/21
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- Figure 1: Passenger journeys on public transport* in Great Britain, volume forecast as of 2 July 2020, 2014/15-2024/25**
- Figure 2: Passenger journeys on public transport* in Great Britain, value forecast as of 2 July 2020, 2014/15-2024/25**
- Impact of COVID-19 on public transport
- Passenger numbers are expected to rise gradually but to remain well short of normal levels until COVID is no longer a threat
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- Figure 3: Expected impact of COVID-19 on public transport, short, medium and long term, 2 July 2020
- Companies and brands
- Financial crisis looming for operators
- Go-Ahead & Keolis joint venture accounts for largest passenger share
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- Figure 4: Rail operating companies in Great Britain, estimated market share of total passenger journeys, 2019/20
- Stagecoach & FirstGroup are the bus market leaders outside London
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- Figure 5: Bus operators, estimated UK regional (excl. London) market share of total services, June 2020
- Go-Ahead, ComfortDelGro and Arriva lead the bus market in London
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- Figure 6: Bus operators, estimated London market share of total services, June 2020
- Crowd avoidance apps and on-demand buses
- The consumer
- Major transport challenge made even harder by COVID-19
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- Figure 7: Domestic transport usage, total usage and regular usage, by mode, May 2020
- Public transport needs to raise perception of convenience to compete with cars
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- Figure 8: Priorities when choosing mode of transport, May 2020
- Overcrowding will remain a key issue for consumers after COVID-19
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- Figure 9: Preferred improvements on public transport, May 2020
- Most consumers are reluctant to return to public transport
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- Figure 10: Impact of COVID-19 on future usage of public transport, May 2020
- Over half of those put off public transport are likely to drive more…
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- Figure 11: Likely behaviours of those put off using public transport in future, May 2020
- …but active travel and micro-mobility modes will be boosted by COVID-19
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- Figure 12: Interest in switching from car to active travel modes and e-bike/e-scooter, May 2020
- Public transport is perceived as less relaxing than car travel and anti-social behaviour is also a barrier
- Providing emissions data could nudge people into greener transport choices
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- Figure 13: Attitudes towards public transport, May 2020
- What we think
The Impact of COVID-19 on Public Transport
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- The market
- Car usage is approaching normal levels but public transport usage remains well down
- 2020/21 volumes are expected to be 70% down on the previous year
- The consumer
- Two thirds of public transport users will be put off
- Over a third may travel less in future
- Crowding will become even more of an issue in future
- Companies and brands
- Mobile apps for safer travel
- Financial crisis for sector
- COVID-19: Market context
Issues and Insights
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- Letting the train takes the stresses and strain
- The facts
- The implications
- Travelling in style
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Public transport will see the biggest passenger fall ever recorded in 2020/21
- Train, bus, tube & tram passengers totalled 7.9 billion in 2019/20
- Bus journeys have declined while rail travel has soared over the past 15 years
- 1.4 billion annual tube journeys prior to COVID-19
- Light/rail tram reached record levels prior to COVID-19
- Coach travel worth £500 million and taxi market worth £2 billion
- Demand will bounce back but operators face financial crisis
- Changing work/life habits, decarbonisation and urban micro-mobility will be key drivers of change
Market Size, Segmentation and Forecast
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- Short-, medium- and long-term impact on the industry
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- Figure 14: Expected impact of COVID-19 on public transport, short, medium and long term, 2 July 2020
- Short term
- Medium term
- Long term
- Annual passenger journeys were stable at 8.2 million before COVID-19
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- Figure 15: Number of passenger journeys on public transport* and passenger revenue in Great Britain, 2014/15-2019/20**
- Buses in decline but still account for over half of journeys
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- Figure 16: Number of passenger journeys on public transport in Great Britain, by segment, 2014/15-2019/20*
- Rail accounts for 61% of public transport revenues
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- Figure 17: Passenger revenue on public transport in Great Britain, by segment, 2014/15-2019/20*
- Impact of COVID-19 on public transport
- Public transport usage remains low as lockdown is eased in early July 2020
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- Figure 18: Percentage of ‘normal’ traffic usage*, 9 March 2020-22 June 2020
- All public transport segments will see biggest ever recorded drop in 2020/21
- The health risks are the major threat to public transport not the recession
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- Figure 19: Number of passenger journeys on public transport* and passenger revenue in Great Britain, 2014/15-2024/25**
- Post-COVID-19 working patterns will affect travel but long-term environmental needs should boost public transport
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- Figure 20: Passenger journeys on public transport* in Great Britain, volume forecast as of 2 July 2020, 2014/15-2024/25**
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- Figure 21: Passenger journeys on public transport* in Great Britain, value forecast as of 2 July 2020, 2014/15-2024/25**
- Other public transport segments
- Domestic air travel
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- Figure 22: Volume of UK domestic flights, 2015-19
- Scheduled coach
- Taxi/PHV
Market Background
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- 10-year transport usage trends
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- Figure 23: Average number of trips, by main travel mode in England, 2008-18
- The future of transport – a tale of two crises
- The carbon impact of transport
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- Figure 24: Average greenhouse gas emissions* (grams) per passenger kilometre travelled, 2019
- Transport Decarbonisation Plan
- Rail investment
- Bus investment
- Government financial support for public transport – COVID-19
- COVID-19 could put planned investment at risk
- Active travel
- Urban mobility
- WFH is here to stay
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Go-Ahead, Keolis, FirstGroup & Abellio have the largest share of rail passengers
- Stagecoach, FirstGroup, Go-Ahead, Arriva & ComfortDelGro are the leading bus operators
- Keolis is the light rail market leader
- Rise in mobile passenger information tools is being accelerated by COVID-19
- Buses on demand, driverless & anti-pollution buses
- Pendolino redesign and new luxury sleeper service
Rail, Bus, Light Rail/Tram & Underground Operators
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- National rail operators
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- Figure 25: Rail operating companies in Great Britain, by passenger volume, 2019/20
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- Figure 26: Rail operating companies in Great Britain, estimated market share of total passenger journeys, 2019/20
- National bus operators
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- Figure 27: Bus operators in Great Britain, June 2020
- Regional bus services – market share
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- Figure 28: Bus operators, estimated UK regional (excl. London) market share of total services, June 2020
- London bus services – market share
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- Figure 29: Bus operators, estimated London market share of total services, June 2020
- Trams & light rail
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- Figure 30: Tram and light rail services in Great Britain, June 2020
- Underground
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- Figure 31: Underground rail services in Great Britain, June 2020
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- COVID-19 & tools to combat overcrowding
- COVID-19 and ticketing
- Demand Responsive Transport
- Driverless buses
- Anti-pollution buses
- Integrated local travel apps
- Rail investment
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- 27% of adults were ‘regular’ public transport users
- Buses were still the most frequently used public transport mode despite decline
- Under-35s were the biggest public transport users
- Lower fares and less crowding are most preferred improvements
- Consumers are reluctant to return to public transport until they feel safe
- Public transport needs to compete better with cars on convenience and relaxation
- Anti-social behaviour is a deterrent for many travellers
Public Transport Usage
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- 63% of consumers were regular car users and 27% were regular public transport users
- Public transport demographics
- COVID-19 boost to cycling
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- Figure 32: Domestic transport usage, mode and frequency, May 2020
- Figure 33: Domestic transport usage, total usage and regular usage, by mode, May 2020
- Rural residents want to see greater availability of public transport
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- Figure 34: Domestic transport usage, regular usage (more than once a week), by location of residence, May 2020
- Travel purposes
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- Figure 35: Purpose of domestic transport usage, May 2020
Public Transport Usage Factors
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- Public transport needs to be seen as the most convenient option
- Four in 10 consumers prioritise the ‘travel experience’
- One in five consumers prioritise environmental factors
- Customer service reputation seen as a low priority
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- Figure 36: Priorities when choosing mode of transport, May 2020
Public Transport – Preferred Improvements
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- Post-COVID fare rises could deter consumers from returning to public transport
- Crowding will become an even more pressing issue
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- Figure 37: Preferred improvements on public transport, May 2020
- Other improvements
Impact of COVID-19 on Public Transport Usage
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- COVID concerns have softened but are still widespread
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- Figure 38: Public levels of concern about COVID-19, March-June 2020
- Two thirds of transport users will be put off returning
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- Figure 39: Impact of COVID-19 on future usage of public transport, May 2020
- Car travel, active travel and no travel are all set to increase
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- Figure 40: Likely behaviours of those put off using public transport in future, May 2020
- Perception of safety and government messaging will be key to a recovery of public transport
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- Figure 41: When people expect to return to public transport, 21 June 2020
Public Transport & Active Travel – Opportunities
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- Potential interest in active travel and urban mobility innovations
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- Figure 42: Interest in switching from car to active travel modes and e-bike/e-scooter, May 2020
- Scope for onboard entertainment and wellness services
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- Figure 43: Interest in accessing onboard services on public transport, May 2020
Attitudes towards Public Transport
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- The ‘convenience’ of the car needs to be challenged
- Public transport needs to be seen as a stress reliever
- Anti-social behaviour is a deterrent
- Train ticketing needs to be simplified
- Food & drink remains a weakness on longer train journeys
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- Figure 44: Attitudes towards public transport, May 2020
- Opportunity for me-time
- Ethical labelling
- Affordable luxury
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
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