Table of Contents
The Impact of COVID-19 on Consumers
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- Food dollars shift from foodservice to grocery retail
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- Figure 2: Changes in spending habits due to coronavirus, April-June 2020
- Shoppers shift from spontaneity to stocking up
- Grocers work to meet demand, keep shoppers, employees safe
- Supply chain disruptions remain an issue
- More grocery shoppers go online, or try
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- Figure 3: Grocery shopping methods, February 2020
- After a brief dip, ecommerce gains share
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- Figure 4: Total ecommerce share of omni-channel food/drink sales, January-May 2020
- Retailers, delivery services expand capacity
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- Figure 5: Coronavirus lifestyle changes – online shopping, April-June 2020
- Long-term success for ecommerce may hinge on shopper satisfaction during pandemic
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- Figure 6: Reasons for not shopping online for groceries more, by shopping method and online shopping frequency, February 2020
- On a mission: limiting time spent in-store
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- Figure 7: Coronavirus behaviors, April 2020
- Lessons from other regions
- Mintel Global Trend Drivers
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- Figure 8: Mintel Global Trend Drivers
- Wellbeing: Yearning for emotional comfort will give way to focus on physical health
- Experiences: The thrill is gone, at least for now
- Technology: A shift from convenience to safety
- Value: Stocking up will give way to cutting back
- Identity: An opportunity for grocery retailers to go local
The Impact of COVID-19 on the Center Store
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- The state of the market before COVID-19
- Only minimal growth for center store as a whole
- A renaissance in the freezer case
- Stagnating sales in some big shelf-stable categories
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- Figure 9: Total retail sales of center-of-store foods, by segment, at current prices, 2014-19
- Forecast: A return to slower growth after pandemic-driven boost
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- Figure 10: Total retail sales and forecast of center-of-store foods, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
- Short-term changes in the center store
- A focal point for stocking up
- Emphasis on comfort
- Meeting consumer needs
- Medium-term changes in the center store
- Continued focus on safety will limit trip frequency
- A renewed focus on value in a post-COVID-19 recession will bolster the center store
- Meeting consumer needs
- Longer-term changes in the center store
- Maintaining momentum in the freezer case
- Meeting consumer needs
The Impact of COVID-19 on the Perimeter
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- The state of the market before COVID-19
- Steady modest growth for the perimeter amid increased competition
- Grocers place emphasis on prepared foods
- Value-added fresh products appeal to interest in convenience and health
- Opportunity to make local a point of difference
- Adding convenience to fresh
- Perimeter remains a focal point for shopper engagement and loyalty
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- Figure 11: Attitudes toward the perimeter – any agree, June 2019
- Forecast: Overall perimeter sales to remain elevated into 2021
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of perimeter-of-store foods, at current prices, 2014-24
- Forecast: Wide variance across perimeter departments
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- Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of perimeter-of-store foods, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
- Short-term changes in the perimeter
- Pandemic brings volatility to perimeter departments
- Meeting consumer needs
- Medium-term changes in the perimeter
- Significant supply chain challenges trigger shortages and price increases
- Meeting consumer needs
- Longer-term changes in the perimeter
- Health will remain a key draw, but return to experiential shopping may lag
- Meeting consumer needs
The Impact of COVID-19 on Private Label
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- The state of the market before COVID-19
- Store brands strengthen their position in an increasingly competitive market
- Private label purchase trending upward before pandemic
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- Figure 14: Store brand purchase behavior, by age, November 2019
- An increasingly positive view of store brands positions them for further growth
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- Figure 15: Consumer opinions of store brands versus name brands, any agree, November 2019
- Forecast: Private label growth to accelerate in recession
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- Figure 16: Private label share and forecast of total multi-outlet food and drink sales, at current prices, 2014-24
- Short-term changes for private label
- Brand loyalty takes a back seat, creating opening for store brands
- Meeting consumer needs
- Medium-term changes for private label
- The need to economize will continue to drive private label growth
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- Figure 17: Unemployment and underemployment, January 2007-May 2020
- Lessons from the previous recession: food at home held steady, private label gained
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- Figure 18: Consumer spending on food at home, monthly, 2006-10
- Figure 19: Consumer spending on food away from home, monthly, 2006-10
- Meeting consumer needs
- Longer-term changes for private label
- Beyond price, a strategic platform for retailers
- Meeting consumer needs
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 20: Total retail sales of center-of-store foods, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 21: Total US retail sales and forecast of perimeter-of-store foods, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
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