Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: UK new car registration market forecast, pre- and post-COVID-19, 2019-24 (thousands)
- Impact of COVID-19 on cars and commercial vehicles
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- Figure 2: Expected impact of COVID-19 on cars and commercial vehicles, short, medium and long-term, 11 June 2020
- Market size and segmentation
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- Figure 3: Number of passenger cars registered and produced, 2010-19 (units)
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- Figure 4: Number of commercial vehicle registered and produced, 2010-19 (number of commercial vehicles)
- Market trends and drivers
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- Figure 5: UK business Investment excluding exceptional transfers, Q4 2015 – Q4 2019 (£ million)
- Companies and brands
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- Figure 6: Newly registered cars by fuel type, % share of market, Great Britain, 2013-20
- What we think
The Impact of COVID-19 on Cars and Commercial Vehicles
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- Short, medium and long-term impact on the industry
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- Figure 7: Expected impact of COVID-19 on cars and commercial vehicles, short, medium and long-term, 11 June 2020
- Short term
- Medium term
- Long term
- Opportunities and threats
- Impact on the cars and commercial vehicles market
- Manufacturing grinds to a halt
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- Figure 8: New UK passenger car registrations, year to 30 April, 2018/19 and 2019/20 (units)
- Registrations to experience a record decline in 2020
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- Figure 9: UK new passenger car registrations forecast, pre- and post-COVID19, 2019-24 (thousands)
- How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the cars and commercial vehicles market
- Youth unemployment presents a huge risk
- Brexit and COVID-19 may make the UK less attractive to manufacturers
- The share of electric vehicles on UK roads will surge
- COVID-19: UK context
Issues and Insights
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- Collapse of activity due to COVID-19 poses problems for component suppliers
- The facts
- The implications
- Better technology, infrastructure and model range will bring EVs to the mainstream
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Slower economic growth home and abroad add to pressure on the automotive sector
- Car sales bear the brunt of industry decline, while ecommerce drives long-term LCV uptake
- Pandemic aftereffects and Brexit to hamper post-2020 registration recovery
- Market headwinds not enough to stop incoming EV revolution
Market Size
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- The cars and commercial vehicles market in 2019
- Loss of private buyers is a key reason behind falling new car sales
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- Figure 10: UK new registrations of cars, 2014-19
- Decline in car production intensifies relative to registrations
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- Figure 11: Number of passenger car registered and produced, 2010-19 (units)
- Commercial vehicle segment retains stability despite worsening conditions
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- Figure 12: Number of commercial vehicle registered and produced, 2010-19 (units)
Market Segmentation
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- Car registrations and production
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- Figure 13: New UK passenger car registrations, year to April, 2018/19 and 2019/20, (units)
- Figure 14: Number of cars produced by top five UK-based car manufacturers, by brand, 2013-2018 (units)
- Commercial vehicle registrations and production
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- Figure 15: New LCV registrations, year to April, 2018/19 and 2019/20, (units)
- Figure 16: Number of cars produced by top five UK-based commercial vehicle manufacturers, by brand, 2013-2018, (units)
- Declining exports reflect growing wariness over the viability of UK-based production
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- Figure 17: Number of passenger cars sold domestically and exported internationally, 2010-19, (thousands)
- Figure 18: Number of CVs sold domestically and exported internationally, 2010-19, (thousands)
Market Forecast
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- COVID-19 aftermath will drive down registrations in the medium term
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- Figure 19: UK new car and light vehicle registrations forecast, pre- and post-COVID19, 2019-2024, (thousands)
Market Trends
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- Development and adoption of electric vehicles
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- Figure 20: Newly registered cars, by fuel type, Great Britain, 2013-20, (% market share)
- Figure 21: Types of AFV, 2013 -19, (% of all AFV car registrations)
- EV infrastructure
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- Figure 22: Number of UK public EV charging connectors, 2011-2019, (number)
- Figure 23: Number of EVs per charging connector, by region, 2019, (units)
Market Drivers
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- Impact of Brexit
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- Figure 24: UK business Investment excluding exceptional transfers, Q4 2015 - Q4 2019, (£ million)
- State-supported ‘Road to Zero’ will enable faster EV uptake
- ‘Dieselgate’ may have sped the end of traditional engines
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- Figure 25: Newly registered cars by fuel type, Great Britain, 2013-20, (% market share)
- Car hire remains a popular alternative to car ownership
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- Figure 26: UK short-term car rental, by volume (private and corporate), 2014-19 (millions)
- Car sharing has seen a dramatic expansion in use
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- Figure 27: Car club vehicle and membership growth, 2009 and 2019
- Other alternatives are also available
- Private hire taxis have increased their presence
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- Figure 28: Total licensed taxi and private hire vehicles (England and Wales), 2009-19 (thousands)
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- SMEs could become weak link due to pandemic disruption
- Electrification is a top priority for market leaders
Industry Structure
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- Changes in industry structure
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- Figure 29: Changes in the industry structure of motor vehicle manufacturing activities, 2015-19, (number of businesses and outlets)
- Structure by employment
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- Figure 30: Changes in the employment structure of motor vehicle manufacturing activities, by employment band, 2018 and 2019, (number of outlets)
- Structure by turnover
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- Figure 31: changes in the turnover structure of motor vehicle manufacturing activities, by turnover band, 2018 and 2019, (number of businesses)
Company Profiles
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- BMW (UK) Manufacturing
- Response to COVID-19
- Recent company activity
- Financial information
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- Figure 32: Financial analysis of BMW (UK) Manufacturing Ltd, 2014-2018
- Figure 33: BMW (UK) passenger car production volume, 2014-19, (units and % annual change)
- Honda of the UK Manufacturing
- Response to COVID-19
- Recent company activity
- Financial information
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- Figure 34: Financial analysis of Honda of the UK Manufacturing Ltd, 2015-2019, (% growth and £ million)
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- Figure 35: Honda UK passenger car production volume, 2014-19, (units and % annual growth)
- Jaguar Land Rover
- Response to COVID-19
- Recent company activity
- Financial information
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- Figure 36: Financial analysis of Jaguar Land Rover Ltd, 2014-2018, (% growth and £ million)
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- Figure 37: Jaguar Land Rover passenger car production volume, 2014-19, (units and % annual change)
- Nissan Motor Manufacturing (UK)
- Response to COVID-19
- Recent company activity
- Financial information
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- Figure 38: Financial analysis of Nissan Motor Manufacturing (UK) Ltd, 2015-2019, (% growth and £ million)
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- Figure 39: Nissan Motor Manufacturing (UK) passenger car production volume, 2014-19, (units and % annual change)
- Toyota Motor Manufacturing (UK)
- Response to COVID-19
- Recent company activity
- Financial information
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- Figure 40: Financial analysis of Toyota Motor Manufacturing (UK) Ltd, 2014-2018, (% growth and £ million)
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- Figure 41: Toyota Motor Manufacturing UK passenger car production volume, 2015-19, (units and % annual change)
- Vauxhall Motors
- Response to COVID-19
- Recent company activity
- Financial information
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- Figure 42: Financial analysis of Vauxhall Motors Ltd, 2014-2018, (% growth and £ million)
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- Figure 43: Vauxhall Motors Ltd passenger car and CV production volume, 2015-19, (units and % annual change)
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Methodology
Further Sources and Contacts
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- Trade associations
- British Vehicle Rental and Leasing Association (BVRLA)
- Confederation of Passenger Transport UK (CPT)
- European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA)
- Finance & Leasing Association
- Freight Transport Association (FTA)
- International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA)
- The National Franchised Dealers Association
- Retail Motor Industry Federation (RMI)
- Road Haulage Association (RHA)
- Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)
- Trade magazines
- Auto Trader
- Commercial Vehicle Dealer
- Motor Trader Magazine
- Trade events
- Automechanika Birmingham
- Automotive Management Live
- The Complete Auto Recycling Show (CARS)
- The London Motor Show
- The Commercial Vehicle Show
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