Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Short, medium and long-term impact
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- Figure 1: Expected impact of COVID-19 on the beauty and personal care market, short, medium and long-term, 10th June 2020
- Opportunities and Threats
- An emotional need for community and co-operation
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- Figure 2: Olay virtual beauty appointments, May 2020
- Scientific expertise is back in fashion…
- …and the crisis will reinforce growing environmental concerns
- Centring on self-care rather than indulgence
- Impact on the market
- Severe disruptions in 2020….
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- Figure 3: UK central forecast value sales of the beauty and personal care market, 2015-2025
- …and a long road to recovery
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- Figure 4: UK value sales of the beauty and personal care market, 2015-2025
- How the crisis will affect key consumer segments
- Overall BPC sees a net decline in spend
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- Figure 5: Changes in spending habits on BPC, 26 March to 3 June 2020
- Key consumer segments
- 16-24s will cut back on spending
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- Figure 6: Changing spending intentions on BPC, by age and gender, 28 May – 3 June 2020
- Priorities will shift for women
- Over-65s will have less reason to invest in BPC
- Consumers will look to brands that helped the effort
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- Figure 7: Dove courage is beautiful, April 2020
- How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the industry
- Unemployment will impact discretionary spend
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- Figure 8: Birchbox, April 2020
- Masstige brands offer a new price tier
- Impact on the marketing mix
- The way consumers shop will change
- Marketing needs to emphasise community and mutual support
- Clean beauty will evolve
- COVID-19: UK context
The Impact of COVID-19 on Consumers
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- Anxiety levels align with case curve...
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- Figure 9: Mintel COVID-19 exposure anxiety index, 28 February – 3 June 2020
- … but consumers remain anxious about their health
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- Figure 10: People’s level of concerns about the risk of being exposed to the coronavirus, 28 February – 3 June 2020
- COVID-19 concerns by demographics
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- Figure 11: Proportion of consumers showing the highest degree of concern (4 or 5 out of 5) regarding the risk of being exposed to the coronavirus, by age, 28 February – 3 June 2020
- UK begins to soften lockdown measures
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- Figure 12: Government COVID-19 lockdown exit strategy, published 11 May 2020
- Lockdown fears moderate
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- Figure 13: People’s level of concerns about how the outbreak might affect their lifestyle, 28 February - 3 June
- A bleak outlook for the economy
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- Figure 14: Consumer views on the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the UK economy and their own finances, 28 May – 3 June 2020
- Consumers cut back outgoings, and add to savings
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- Figure 15: How consumers have been affected or changed their behaviour as a result of the outbreak, 21-28 May 2020
- Household finances hold steady for most
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- Figure 16: changes in financial situation since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, 21-28 May 2020
- COVID-19 is yet to meaningfully affect most households’ well-being…
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- Figure 17: The financial well-being index, January 2015-May 2020
- …but confidence for the year ahead plummets
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- Figure 18: Consumers’ financial confidence for the coming year, May 2020
- Middle age groups feel particularly vulnerable…
- …and self-employed respondents show the importance of the COVID-19 support package
How COVID-19 Has Already Affected BPC
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- Consumers are reporting a fall in planned spending …
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- Figure 19: Changes in spending habits on BPC, 26 March to 3 June 2020
- …however some are starting to cut back
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- Figure 20: Changing spending intentions on BPC, by age and gender, 28 May – 3 June 2020
- Companies prepare for the impact
- Retail inventory builds up
- BPC companies help the COVID-19 effort
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- Figure 21: LVMH Maisons product face masks and gowns, April 2020
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- Figure 22: Estée Lauder surgical mask donation, March 2020
- Businesses come together
- Trade shows and launches postponed
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- Figure 23: KKW Beauty launch delay, March 2020
Which Behaviours Will Change in the Short-term?
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- Consumers seek to prevent and protect in BPC
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- Figure 24: Changes in hygiene related behaviours as a result of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, 28 February-16 April
- Stockpiling essentials
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- Figure 25: Changes in behaviour regarding stocking up and buying online as a result of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, 28 February-16 April
- Online buying raises ethical issues
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- Figure 26: Bloom & Wild letterbox size packages, September 2019
- Influencers will see a backlash
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- Figure 27: Hershesons consultations, May 2020
- Focus on skincare
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- Figure 28: Frequency of beauty activities since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, 23 April to 7 May 2020
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- Figure 29: Touchland hand sanitiser, 2019
- DIY beauty sees a rise
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- Figure 30: Katherine daniels at-home facials, May 2020
- Beauty routines offer a sense of calm
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- Figure 31: Reasons for doing more BPC activities since the COVID-19 outbreak, 23 April to 7 May 2020
- Priorities are shifting
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- Figure 32: Reasons for doing fewer BPC activities since the COVID-19 outbreak, 23 April to 7 May 2020
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- Figure 33: Feelunique makeup offers, May 2020
- The collapse of travel markets will hit sales
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- Figure 34: Beauty routines before a holiday, August 2017
Which Behaviours Will Change in the Medium-term?
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- Heightened focus on hygiene
- Packaging and format can allay concerns
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- Figure 35: Clé de Peau Beauté radiant cushion foundation refill, 2019
- Figure 36: Examples of waterless and stick formats in BPC, 2019
- Drive for transparency
- Time for tech to shine
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- Figure 37: Participation in online beauty/grooming activities, August 2019
- Consumers will seek mindful self-care
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- Figure 38: Revlon self-care Sunday, May 2020
Which Behaviours Will Change in the Long-term?
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- Eco-concerns will be heightened
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- Figure 39: Important factors for an eco-friendly BPC brand or product, November 2019
- The fashion industry is finding innovative ways of highlighting ecological credentials
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- Figure 40: Allbirds carbon footprint, April 2020
- Safety concerns will accelerate some trends
- Lab-grown ingredients will be the new norm
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- Figure 41: Interest in BPC ingredients, April 2020
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- Figure 42: Biossance marine algae eye cream, 2020
- Clean beauty will evolve
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- Figure 43: Index of Google searches for ‘sensitive skin’, 19th May 2019-10th May 2020
- Expertise will be sought after
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- Figure 44: Labmuffinbeautyscience, May 2020
- The shopping experience will be transformed
- Brands can gamify the shopping experience
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- Figure 45: Drest Christian Louboutin challenge, May 2020
What Can We Learn from Previous Slowdowns?
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- BPC fared well during the previous recession
- Discretionary sectors will take longer to recover
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- Figure 46: Birchbox, April 2020
- The COVID-19 after-effects will compound the impact of the recession
- Savvy shopping behaviours will be revived
- Another recession, another indie brand boom
Lessons from Other Markets
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- Life gets back to normal in China
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- Figure 47: Grocery shopping channel in the last one month, 28th February-1st April, 2020
- Community feel is high
- Lessons for BPC
- Eye makeup will be the ‘lipstick effect’ post COVID-19
- Livestream channels boosted online shopping in China
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