Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Analyst perspective: flexibility during the pandemic will help operators survive during COVID-19 and beyond
- Overview
- Key takeaways
- Short-, medium- and longer-term impacts
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- Figure 1: Impact of COVID-19 on the foodservice industry, June 2020
- Market performance and sales forecast
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- Figure 2: Total US revenues and forecast sales ranges of restaurants and eating places*, at current prices, 2014-24
- Foodservice performance
Impact of COVID-19 on Consumers
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- The priority has shifted to at-home food
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- Figure 3: COVID-19 spending priorities, April-June 2020
- The return to normalcy is a patchwork quilt
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- Figure 4: Future activities, going to a restaurant, by age, May 28-June 4, 2020
- Mintel Trend Drivers
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- Figure 5: Mintel Trends Drivers
- Identity: restaurants are woven into the fabric of communities
- Surroundings: independents and chains can emphasize their local impact
- Experiences: memorable meals make repeat customers
- Rights: diners expect restaurants to keep them safe
- Technology: online ordering connects diners and restaurants, on-premise and off
- Value: barbell menus offer something for every budget
- Wellbeing: consumers are creatures of comfort but can be nudged toward healthier habits
How a COVID-19 Recession Will Impact Foodservice
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- Unprecedented sales losses expected
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- Figure 6: Total US revenues and forecast sales ranges of restaurants and eating places*, at current prices, 2014-24
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- Figure 7: Total US revenues and forecast sales ranges of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
- US unemployment reaches levels not seen since Great Depression
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- Figure 8: Unemployment and underemployment, January 2007-May 2020
- Dining out is among the first nonessentials to go
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- Figure 9: Spending cuts after job loss – NET any rank, November 2019
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- Figure 10: Consumer spending on food away from home, monthly, 2006-10
- Figure 11: Consumer spending on food away from home, annual, 2000-19 and Q1 2020
State of the Foodservice Category Before COVID-19
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- Shifts to off-premise were already in play
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- Figure 12: Restaurant delivery and pickup in the past three months, June 2016, September 2018 and September 2019
- Consumers were visiting fine dining restaurants more often year over year
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- Figure 13: Year over year change in restaurant visitation, November 2019
- Family midscales viewed as old-fashioned and generic
- Casual dining struggles with value perceptions
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- Figure 14: Reasons for dining at casual dining restaurants less often, November 2019
- Tech innovations were a well-timed enhancement for LSRs
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- Figure 15: Fast food dining behaviors year over year – More often, by generation, February 2020
- Blurring and stolen share among LSRs
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- Figure 16: Percentage share of Top 200 limited service restaurant sales, by segment, 2017-18*
Short-term changes in the foodservice industry
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- Figure 17: Impact of COVID-19 on foodservice, June 2020
- Creativity helps delivery/takeout ramp up quickly
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- Figure 18: Change in takeout and delivery frequency, March & April 2020
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- Figure 19: Little Caesars TV campaign, March 2020
- Brands pivot to provide consumers value and new experiences at home
- Kids meals and family promos head home
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- Figure 20: Family dining email promotions, March & April 2020
- Menus scale down while comfort food trends up
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Medium-term changes in the foodservice industry
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- Figure 21: Impact of COVID-19 on foodservice, June 2020
- Food safety and sanitation measures will help diners’ comfort level
- It’s all about value
- Independents feel the love
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- Figure 22: Restaurant attitudes – NET agree, by generation, April 2020
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Longer-term changes in the foodservice industry
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- Figure 23: Impact of COVID-19 on foodservice, June 2020
- The US restaurant industry will be much smaller
- Employee and community initiatives stay front and center
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- Figure 24: Restaurant attitudes – NET agree, by generation, April 2020
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- Figure 25: Popeyes TV campaign, April 2020
- Off-premise dining will be even more mainstream
- Greater competition and restrictions for third-party delivery companies
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Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market Data
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- Figure 26: Total US revenues and forecast sales ranges of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
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Appendix – Consumer Data
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- Figure 27: Change in fast casual visitation, February 2020
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- Figure 28: Fast casual visitation drivers, February 2020
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- Figure 29: Fast casual visitation barriers, February 2020
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