COVID-19 is expected to impact the cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods market negatively in the short term. The enforced lockdown will mean potential cake eating occasions will be lost, such as workplace celebrations, and the rise in home baking will also mean these products will lose out. Consequently, any potential gains from consumers turning to the category to provide them with a mood boost during this unsettling time are likely to be negated. As the extensive disruption caused by the lockdown passes, Mintel expects similar patterns of behaviour to those seen in the 2008/09 recession to emerge in 2021, with the market beginning to recover.

Cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods continue to play a role in the majority of people’s lives, despite overarching health concerns. As the category looks to respond to these concerns, many consumers appear open to more healthier innovation, which will help the category remain relevant. Furthermore, brands in this sector would do well to emphasise their products’ versatility, such as their suitability as desserts, as well as providing more convenient formats, in order to tap into additional eating occasions.

• The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behaviour and market dynamics in the cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods sector.

• How the market is responding to overarching concerns in relation to sugar, and where underexplored opportunities for NPD lie

• The value of individual segments and brand performance in 2019

• Consumer behaviour and attitudes towards cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods

This Report examines the UK retail market for cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods. The market size includes sales through all retail channels including direct to consumer. Mintel defines the market as comprising packaged (wrapped) cakes and sweet baked goods which are kept at ambient temperatures, as well as cakes from in-store bakeries and bakery shops.

The market can be broadly segmented into small cakes, large cakes, celebration cakes, occasion cakes and puddings, and sweet baked goods.

‘Small cakes’ include individual cakes either sold singly, or as multipacks or assortments, including seasonal and occasion variants of the same. These include slices, small pies & tarts, mini rolls, cupcakes, bites, cake bars, flapjacks and other small cakes.

‘Large cakes’ include cakes intended for sharing. These include whole cakes, slab cakes, loaf cakes, Swiss rolls, sponge cakes, large pies & tarts and tray bakes.

‘Sweet baked goods’ include crumpets, croissants, brioche loaves and rolls, pains au chocolat and raisins, American muffins, scones, hot cross buns/loaves, malt and fruit loaves, pancakes, teacakes, doughnuts, English muffins, waffles, fruit buns, crêpes, potato cakes/scones, Irish bread, iced buns, farls, sweet bread/buns and pikelets.

The Report excludes frozen cakes/pastries, chilled desserts such as fruit sorbets and cheesecakes, cake mixes or baking ingredients and biscuits. It also excludes sales via catering or foodservice establishments, ie those sold in cafés, restaurants etc, however, references and comparisons to these sectors may be made where relevant.