Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Figure 1: Short, medium and long term impact of COVID-19 on ice cream and frozen novelties, April 2020
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- Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2014-24
- The issues
- Category llags behind other snack and dessert categories
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- Figure 3: US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, salty snacks and cookies, % change in sales growth, 2015-2019
- Heavy engagement relies on parenthood
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- Figure 4: Household ice cream and frozen novelties consumption, repertoire, by parental status, January 2020
- There’s a disconnect in BFY attitudes vs offerings
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- Figure 5: Ice cream and frozen novelties attributes, January 2020
- The opportunities
- Adapt to shifting ways of food and drink shopping
- Keep it simple, functional
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- Figure 6: Ice cream and frozen novelties attitudes, January 2020
- Make novelties an adult occasion
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- Figure 7: Ice cream and frozen novelty associations, January 2020
- Remain flavor forward
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- Figure 8: Flavor interest, January 2020
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The Impact of COVID-19 on Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties
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- What you need to know
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- Figure 9: Short, medium and long term impact of COVID-19 on ice cream and frozen novelties, April 2020
- Opportunities and Threats
- COVID-19 boost will have seasonal staying power, but then return to business as usual
- Experience, nostalgia will inherently benefit the ice cream and frozen novelties brands
- A return to wellbeing
- Impact on the Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties market
- 2020 will bring highs, followed by slows
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2014-24
- How the crisis will affect ice cream and frozen novelty key consumer segments
- Parents and kids are an important part of the ice cream equation…
- …yet the number of households with children shrinking
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- Figure 12: Households, by presence of related children, 2008-18
- Now is a great time to focus on adults as individuals, too
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- Figure 13: Population aged 18 or older, by age, 2014-24
- How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the Ice Cream and Frozen Novelty industry
- Unemployment will shift, not disrupt, discretionary spend for some
- COVID-19: US context
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Growth lags behind other treats
- Frozen novelties to take the largest share of market
- Restaurants scream for ice cream
- Frozen treats part of a balanced diet?
Market Size and Forecast
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- Stagnation persists in the long-term
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- Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2014-24
Market Breakdown
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- Frozen novelties drive category growth
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- Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
Market Perspective
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- Snack boom gives consumers options for indulgence
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- Figure 16: New food US product launches by subcategory, % change 2018-2019
- Parents are worried about sugar
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- Figure 17: Getting parents to consider new food or drinks, November 2019
Market Factors
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- Consumers looking for balance
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- Figure 18: Attitudes toward healthy eating, September 2019
- Shrinking households with children not likely to rebound soon
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- Figure 19: Households, by presence of related children, 2008-18
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Wells Enterprises given the cold shoulder by Halo Top declines
- Fun and function
- Diet ice cream results in thin sales
- Milk. Cream. Sugar. Eggs.
Company and Brand Sales of Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties
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- Halo Top chills Wells Enterprises’ sales while other players hold steady
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- Figure 20: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Novelty boom could lead to an oversaturation issue
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- Figure 21: Multi-outlet sales of frozen novelties, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
What’s Working
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- Unique flavors
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- Figure 22: MULO sales of ice cream brands with unique flavors, rolling 52 weeks 2019
- Function brings balance to indulgence
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- Figure 23: MULO sales of ice cream brands with functional benefits, rolling 52 weeks 2019
- Mini sizes lead to big sales
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- Figure 24: MULO sales of ice cream brands with mini products, rolling 52 weeks 2019
What’s Struggling
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- The dairy-free segment is getting crowded…
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- Figure 25: MULO sales of non-dairy ice cream brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019
- …but there’s opportunity in nice cream
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- Figure 26: MULO sales of ice cream made from fruit, rolling 52 weeks 2019
- Diet ice creams face a rocky road
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- Figure 27: MULO sales of low fat/low calorie brands and sorbet/sherbet brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019
- Packaged gelato struggles to find its niche
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- Figure 28: MULO sales of gelato brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019
What to Watch
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- Back to basics
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- Figure 29: ice cream brands with real positioning
- Plant based gives way to lab made
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- Figure 30: Perfect Day ice cream
- Ice cream gets sustainable, ethical
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- Figure 31: Ethical ice cream brands
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Parents lead engagement, especially in frozen novelties
- Simple is best
- It’s all about flavor
Types of Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Consumed
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- Consumers still sweet on ice cream…
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- Figure 32: Ice cream and frozen novelties consumption, net, January 2020
- …yet regular eengagement could use a boost
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- Figure 33: Ice cream and frozen novelties consumption, repertoire, January 2020
- Older consumers are ice cream traditionalists
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- Figure 34: Ice cream and frozen novelties consumption, by age, January 2020
- Frozen novelty consumption driven by children
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- Figure 35: Ice cream and frozen novelties consumption, by parental status, January 2020
- Novelties, sherbet, ices, sorbets can afford to get experimental
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- Figure 36: Ice cream and frozen novelties consumption, net, by food and drink segmentation, January 2020
Household Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Consumption
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- Children an important part of the ice cream equation
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- Figure 37: Household ice cream and frozen novelties consumption, January 2020
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- Figure 38: Household ice cream and frozen novelties consumption, repertoire, by parental status, January 2020
- Consumers age out of icy treats, novelties
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- Figure 39: Types of ice cream and frozen novelties consumed, by parental status and age of children, January 2020
Important Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Attributes
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- Flavor comes first
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- Figure 40: Ice cream and frozen novelties attributes, January 2020
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- Figure 41: Ice cream and frozen novelties claims, % change 2018-2019
- Indulgent varieties don’t need BFY positioning
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- Figure 42: Ice cream and frozen novelties attributes by types consumed, January 2020
- Dairy-free category is serving a small percentage of consumers
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- Figure 43: Ice cream and frozen novelties attributes, dairy free, by age, January 2020
Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Attitudes
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- Health isn’t an expectation, indulgence is
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- Figure 44: Ice cream and frozen novelties attitudes, January 2020
- Men more willing to compromise on indulgence
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- Figure 45: Ice cream and frozen novelties attitudes, by gender and age, January 2020
- Parents of kids 6-11 most concerned with healthy options
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- Figure 46: Ice cream and frozen novelties attitudes, by children in household, January 2020
Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Associations
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- Frozen treats have distinct strengths and weaknesses
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- Figure 47: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Frozen treat associations, January 2020
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- Figure 48: Ice cream and frozen novelty associations, January 2020
- Guilt is gendered
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- Figure 49: Ice cream and frozen novelty associations, January 2020
Flavor Interest in Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties
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- The more flavor, the better
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- Figure 50: Flavor interest, January 2020
- Older consumers less adventurous
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- Figure 51: Flavor interest, by age, January 2020
- Women hungrier for flavors
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- Figure 52: Flavor interest, by age and gender, January 2020
Innovation to Drive Trial
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- Consumers motivated by indulgence, especially a permissible or functional one
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- Figure 53: Innovation to drive trial, January 2020
- Motivations vary by age
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- Figure 54: Innovation to drive trial, by age, January 2020
- Parents seeking out BFY options
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- Figure 55: Innovation to drive trial, January 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Further Analysis Methodology
- Correspondence Analysis
- TURF
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 57: Total US retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
- Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
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- Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, by type, at current prices, 2014-19
- Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 63: Total retail sales of ice cream and frozen dairy desserts, by type, at current prices, 2014-19
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- Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet/sorbet/ices, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet/sorbet/ices, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
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Appendix – Retail Channels
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- Figure 68: Total US retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by channel, at current prices, 2014-19
- Figure 69: Total US retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
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- Figure 70: US supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2014-19
- Figure 71: US drugstore sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2014-19
- Figure 72: US sales of ice cream and frozen novelties through other retail channels, at current prices, 2014-19
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 73: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Figure 74: Multi-outlet sales of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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- Figure 75: Multi-outlet sales of sherbet/sorbet/ices, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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