Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales of potato and tortilla chips, by segment, at current prices, with percent change in parentheses, 2017 and 2019
- The issues
- Low interest in new chips
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- Figure 2: Interest in new chips, by gender, by age, November 2019
- Consumers, particularly parents, perceive lack of healthy chip options
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- Figure 3: Interest in healthy chips, any agree, by parental status, November 2019
- Premium options face a price threshold
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- Figure 4: Price as a chip purchase factor, by household income, November 2019
- The opportunities
- Embracing nostalgia even of recent eras
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- Figure 5: Chip preferences, any agree, by age, November 2019
- Healthier, if not healthy per se
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- Figure 6: Interest in healthy chips, by age, November 2019
- Parents seek packaging improvements
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- Figure 7: Improvements in chip packaging, any agree, by parental status, November 2019
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Strong chip sales growth to continue
- Growth largely driven by tortilla chips
- Healthy snacker could necessitate healthy innovation
- Health messaging to distinguish chips
Market Size and Forecast
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- $15 billion chip market to continue growth
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of potato and tortilla chips, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of potato and tortilla chips, at current prices, 2014-24
Market Breakdown
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- Tortilla chips drive majority of chip sales growth
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of potato and tortilla chips, in millions, by segment, with % change from year prior in parentheses, 2014-24
- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of potato and tortilla chips, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
- Changing channels for chips
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales of potato and tortilla chips, by channel, in millions, at current prices, 2014-19
Market Perspective
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- It’s a competitive market for the growing healthy snacker base
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- Figure 13: Interest in chip innovations, November 2019
Market Factors
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- Changing definition of health can be difficult from brands to navigate
- Aging population likely to snack more, but not on potato/tortilla chips
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- Figure 14: US population by age, 2013-23
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Rising sales for all major brands
- Chip flavor innovation gains heat
- Natural chips fall short of other snacks
- Expanding flavors beyond simply hot
Company and Brand Sales of Potato and Tortilla Chips
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- Legacy chip brands faring well among chip sales
- Sales growth permeates major companies
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- Figure 15: Multi-outlet sales of potato and tortilla chips, by company, 2018-19
What’s Working
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- Imaginative and hotter flavors driving chip innovation
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- Figure 16: Leading chip purchase factors, by gender, by age, November 2019
- Success with healthier, if not healthy
- Single serve + product integrity = classic portability
What’s Struggling
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- Lack of NPD negatively impacting Santitas’ tortilla chips
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- Figure 17: Sales of PepsiCo’s Santitas tortilla chips, in millions, 2018-19
- Natural claims notably less among potato/tortilla chip launches
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- Figure 18: Chip/puff snack launches in the US, by claim category, 2018-19
- Figure 19: Consumer attribute ratings, natural potato snack launches versus potato snack launches overall, 2017-19
- Figure 20: Consumer attribute ratings, natural potato snack launches versus all potato snack launches, 2017-19
What to Watch
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- BFY in a category driven by convenience and flavor
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- Figure 21: Interest in chip innovations, November 2019
- International flavors leveraging interest in adventurous experiences
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Chips consumed by virtually all consumers
- Young men consume chips often
- Price plays a leading role, followed by familiar flavors and brand
- Familiarity leading to consistency
- Healthy evolution
- National brands could face store-brand onslaught
- Moms notably interested in packaging improvements
- Chips resonate most strongly with Adventure Eaters
Chip Consumption
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- Just 5% of consumers abstain from chips
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- Figure 22: Types of chips consumed, November 2019
- Young adults reach for flavored varieties
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- Figure 23: Types of chips consumed, by age, November 2019
- Chip diversity appealing to parents
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- Figure 24: Chips consumed, by parental status, November 2019
- Hispanic Millennials a rich target for chip NPD
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- Figure 25: Chips consumed, by Hispanic origin, by generation, November 2019
Potato and Tortilla Chip Consumption Frequency
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- Health halo drives popped chips to frequent consumption
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- Figure 26: Frequency of chip consumption, November 2019
- Young men turning to virtually all chips frequently
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- Figure 27: Frequency of chip consumption – weekly or more often, by gender, by age, November 2019
- Hispanics overindex in consuming all chips regularly
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- Figure 28: Frequency of chip consumption – weekly or more often, by Hispanic origin, November 2019
Chip Purchase Factors
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- Price a key driver, followed closely by the familiar
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- Figure 29: Chip purchase factors, November 2019
- Flavor, familiar or new, is a strong draw for young men
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- Figure 30: Leading chip purchase factors, by gender, by age, November 2019
- Parents turning to natural rather than free-from claims
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- Figure 31: Health and natural chip purchase factors, by parental status, by gender, November 2019
Chip Purchase Behaviors
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- Familiarity leading to consistent purchase behaviors
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- Figure 32: Chip purchase behaviors, November 2019
- Relative lack of interest in new chip types
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- Figure 33: Chip purchase behaviors, by gender, by age, November 2019
- Parents much more likely to seek new chip options
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- Figure 34: Chip purchase behaviors, by parental status, November 2019
- Familiar flavors influence even impulse purchase
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- Figure 35: Chip behaviors – CHAID – Tree output, November 2019
Interest in Chip Innovation
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- Healthy chips evolve to embrace positives
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- Figure 36: Interest in chip innovations, November 2019
- Seasonal flavors appeal to a largely untapped market
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- Figure 37: Interest in chip innovations, by gender, by age, November 2019
- Hot and sweet hold considerable appeal among Black consumers
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- Figure 38: Interest in chip flavor innovation, by race, November 2019
Chip Attitudes
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- Freshness concerns highlight chip attitudes
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- Figure 39: Chip attitudes, November 2019
- Nostalgia for not so long ago
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- Figure 40: Chip preferences, any agree, by age, November 2019
- Ingredients role in parental perceptions of health
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- Figure 41: Health's role in chip behaviors, any agree, by parental status, November 2019
- Potential for store brand encroachment
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- Figure 42: Opinions of chip brands, any agree, by age, November 2019
New Chip Purchase Drivers
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- Mix contemporary and traditional word of mouth tactics to build
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- Figure 43: New chip purchase drivers, November 2019
- Maintaining freshness appeals strongly to mothers
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- Figure 44: New chip purchase drivers, by gender, by parental status, November 2019
- Merge the familiar with modern notions of healthy
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- Figure 45: TURF analysis – new chip purchase drivers, November 2019
Potato and Tortilla Chips by Food/Drink Consumer Segmentation
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- Figure 46: Food/drink consumer segmentation of potato and tortilla chips, September 2019
- Adventure Eaters most engaged with chips and their brands
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- Figure 47: Opinions of chip brands, any agree, by food/drink consumer segmentation, November 2019
- Quality Seekers prove problematic for chips
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- Figure 48: New chip purchase drivers, by food/drink consumer segmentation, November 2019
- In-store sampling to reach Time Savers
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- Figure 49: Chip purchase behaviors, by food/drink consumer segmentation, November 2019
- Value Chasers most likely to purchase on impulse
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- Figure 50: Impulse purchase behavior, by food/drink consumer segmentation, November 2019
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Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of potato and tortilla chips, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 52: Total US retail sales of potato and tortilla chips, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
- Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of potato chips, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of potato chips, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
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- Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of tortilla chips, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of tortilla chips, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
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Appendix – Retail Channels
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- Figure 57: Total US retail sales of potato and tortilla chips, by channel, at current prices, 2014-19
- Figure 58: Total US retail sales of potato and tortilla chips, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
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- Figure 59: US supermarket sales of potato and tortilla chips, at current prices, 2014-19
- Figure 60: US drugstore sales of potato and tortilla chips, at current prices, 2014-19
- Figure 61: US convenience store sales of potato and tortilla chips, at current prices, 2014-19
- Figure 62: US sales of potato and tortilla chips through other retail channels, at current prices, 2014-19
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 63: Multi-outlet sales of potato and tortilla chips, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Figure 64: Multi-outlet sales of potato chips, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
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- Figure 65: Multi-outlet sales of tortilla chips, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
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TURF Analysis – Potato and Tortilla Chips – Methodology
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- Figure 66: TURF Analysis – Factors encouraging trial of new chips, November 2019
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- Figure 67: Table - TURF Analysis – Factors encouraging trial of new chips, November 2019
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CHAID Analysis – Potato and Tortilla Chips – Methodology
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- Figure 68: Chip behaviors – CHAID – Tree output, November 2019
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- Figure 69: Chip behaviors – CHAID – Table output, November 2019
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