Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on free-from foods
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- Figure 1: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on free-from foods, prepared on 24 February 2021
- The market
- COVID-19 added more fuel to the market’s growth
- Growth to slow in 2021 before regaining momentum
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- Figure 2: UK retail value sales of free-from food and drink, 2015-25 (prepared on 24 February 2021)
- The dairy-free market has been the growth engine
- Awareness of the environmental benefits of eating more plants grows
- Squeezed spending power will hinder the market
- Prices rises stemming from Brexit would be problematic
- Companies and brands
- Alpro’s lead in sales weakens; a phenomenal performance from Oatly
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- Figure 3: Leading brands’ value sales in the UK free-from market, 2018/19-2020/21
- Own-label grows share of free-from NPD activity in 2020; Asda sets itself apart
- Mainstream brands continue to explore free-from
- 11% fall in adspend on free-from food in 2020
- The consumer
- Food/ingredient avoidance in the household reported by half of adults
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- Figure 4: Overall avoidance of foods/ingredients in the household, by reason, October 2020
- Four in ten adults use/buy free-from food/drink
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- Figure 5: Overall buying and usage of free-from food and drink, October 2020
- Cost is critical; sustainability factors hold sway
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- Figure 6: Enticements to buy a free-from food/drink product, by buying/usage of free-from food/drink, October 2020
- Free-from ranges can be an important differentiator; a need to assuage concerns around impact of Brexit
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- Figure 7: Behaviours relating to free-from food/drink, October 2020
- Nutritional credentials are key; blends of cow’s milks and plant milk garner appeal
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- Figure 8: Attitudes towards free-from food and drink, October 2020
- ‘Plant-based’ seen in a more positive light than ‘vegan’
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- Figure 9: Qualities associated with selected categories of free-from food/drink, October 2020
- Figure 10: Further qualities associated with selected categories of free-from food/drink, October 2020
Issues and Insights
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- A need to go the extra mile on sustainability to stand out amid the eco movement accelerated by COVID-19
- ‘Flexitarian’ dairy products can foster a strong ‘best of both worlds’ positioning
- A need to address poor value for money connotations
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- COVID-19 added more fuel to the market’s growth
- Growth to slow in 2021 before regaining momentum
- The dairy-free market has been the growth engine
- Awareness of the environmental benefits of eating more plants grows
- Squeezed spending power will hinder the market
- Prices rises stemming from Brexit would be problematic
Market Size and Forecast
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- Impact of COVID-19 on free-from foods
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- Figure 11: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on free-from foods, prepared on 24 February 2021
- The market’s growth slowed down in 2019
- COVID-19 added more fuel to the market’s growth
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- Figure 12: UK retail value sales of free-from food and drink, 2015-25 (prepared on
- Growth to slow in 2021 before regaining momentum
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- Figure 13: UK retail value sales of free-from food and drink, 2015-25 (prepared on
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 14: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-25 (prepared on 24 February 2021)
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 15: Rate of annual growth in value sales of free-from food, 2007-12
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- The dairy-free market has been the growth engine
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- Figure 16: UK retail value sales of free-from food and drink, by segment, 2017-20
Market Drivers
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- Impact of the wave of early 2021 lockdowns
- Awareness of the environmental benefits of eating more plants grows
- The sustainability of certain plant-based ingredients is also under scrutiny
- Concerns around soya’s links to deforestation
- Almonds’ water footprint prompts response from brands
- Squeezed spending power will hinder the market
- Engaging with the older generation to become more important
- Prices rises stemming from Brexit would be problematic
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Alpro’s lead in sales weakens; a phenomenal performance from Oatly
- Own-label grows share of free-from NPD activity in 2020; Asda sets itself apart
- A rise in fortification in dairy alternatives
- Mainstream brands continue to explore free-from
- 11% fall in adspend on free-from food
Market Share
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- Alpro’s lead in sales weakens
- A phenomenal performance from Oatly
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- Figure 17: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK free-from market, by value, 2018/19-2020/21
- Sales of Violife double over the last two years
- Own-label and other brands grow their share
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Free-from claims in food launches slip in 2020
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- Figure 18: Share of food* product launches with free-from claims, by claim, 2016-20
- Free-from claims among seasonal food launches rise in 2020
- Own-label grows share of free-from NPD activity in 2020
- Asda drops prices of its Free From range, and launches vegan ambient aisle
- M&S and Morrisons launch gluten-free delivery boxes
- Gluten-free
- Bread attracts more NPD in 2020
- Warburtons adds Toastie loaf to Gluten Free range and updates design
- Promise Gluten Free introduces three new gluten-free breads
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- Figure 19: New launches of gluten-free bread, 2020
- Baking ingredients and mixes also see an uptick in activity
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- Figure 20: Gluten-free baking mix launches from Sweetpea Pantry, 2020
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- Figure 21: Share of product launches in the breakfast cereals, bakery, pasta and snack/cereal/energy bar markets carrying a gluten-free claim, by sub-category (sorted by 2020), 2016-20
- Mrs Crimble’s extends its vegan range
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- Figure 22: Mrs Crimble's Vegan Coconut Macaroons, 2020
- Galaxy makes its debut in gluten-free cakes
- Dairy-free
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- Figure 23: Share of dairy category launches carrying dairy-free and vegan/no-animal-ingredients claims, 2016-20
- A rise in fortification in dairy alternatives
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- Figure 24: Share of launches of dairy-free/vegan/no-animal-ingredients launches in the dairy category featuring selected health claims, 2016-20
- Alpro taps heightened interest in immune health
- Danone expands its Actimel range into dairy-free
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- Figure 25: Launches of dairy-free functional yogurt drinks, 2020
- Oats attract more activity in dairy substitutes
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- Figure 26: Share of launches of dairy-free/vegan/no-animal-ingredients launches in the dairy category featuring selected ingredients, 2016-20
- Danone expands Activia and Light & Free ranges with oat milk-based variants
- Oatly makes its first foray into both yogurt and cheese in 2020
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- Figure 27: Launches of oat-based yogurt alternatives, 2020
- Alpro launches its first oat milk-based yogurt
- The Coconut Collaborative unveils High Fibre Oat Yog
- Arla makes its debut in plant-based
- The Mighty Pea pushes into oat milk
- More yogurt brands foray into plant-based
- The Collective launches Collective Plant
- Oykos introduces Greek-style Stracciatella
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- Figure 28: Oykos Coconut Based Greek Style Dairy Free Stracciatella, 2020
- Indulgence trend is still going strong
- Mars leads vegan NPD in the chocolate aisle
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- Figure 29: Vegan chocolate launches from Mars, 2020-21
- Gü expands its free-from range
- Nush pushes into desserts
- Violife unveils chocolate spread
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- 11% fall in adspend on free-from food
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- Figure 30: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on free-from foods, 2019-20
- ‘Milk moustached’ celebs return in Alpro’s playful new campaign
- Oatly more than quadruples its spend
- Debut TV ad targets the generation divide in usage of dairy substitutes
- The campaign stirs up controversy and attracts media attention
- “Tastes totally normal” is the message in outdoor and press campaign in 2020
- The Coconut Collaborative also aims to overcome taste misconceptions
- Violife becomes the official sponsor of Veganuary 2021
- Warburtons partners with chef in recipe inspiration drive
- Promise Gluten Free unveils biggest campaign to date
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Food/ingredient avoidance in the household is reported by half of adults
- Four in ten adults use or buy free-from food/drink
- Cost is critical
- Sustainability factors hold sway
- Free-from ranges can be an important differentiator
- Concerns around impact of Brexit need to be assuaged
- Nutritional credentials are key
- Blends of cow’s milks and plant milk appeal to a third
- ‘Plant-based’ seen in a more positive light than ‘vegan’
Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviours
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- Stockpiling led to stock shortages at the start of the COVID-19 outbreak
- A boost to online shopping
- COVID-19 brings environment into further spotlight
- Health becomes a higher priority
- Rise in home cooking favours the use of ingredients over processed free-from products
Avoidance of Food/Ingredients
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- Food/ingredient avoidance in the household is reported by half of adults
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- Figure 31: Overall avoidance of foods/ingredients in the household, by reason, October 2020
- Choice drives avoidance more than necessity
- The sharpened focus on health and sustainability will fuel avoidance
- Avoidance of dairy reported by 20%
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- Figure 32: Avoidance of foods/ingredients in the household, by type, October 2020
Types of Free-from Products Bought/Eaten
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- 41% of adults use or buy free-from food/drink
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- Figure 33: Overall buying and usage of free-from food and drink, October 2020
- Dairy substitutes are the most commonly used
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- Figure 34: Buying and usage of free-from food and drink, by type, October 2020
- The younger generation are the core audience for free-from
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- Figure 35: Buying/usage of free-from food and drink, by age, October 2020
Enticements to Buy a Free-from Food/Drink Product
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- Cost is critical
- Sharper focus on cost bodes well for private label
- Scope to illustrate free-from products’ place within great value meals
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- Figure 36: Enticements to buy a free-from food/drink product, October 2020
- Taste is also vital
- A focus on unique flavours can create a USP
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- Figure 37: Enticements to buy a free-from food/drink product, by buying/usage of free-from food/drink, October 2020
- Sustainability factors hold sway
- A need for more clarity and transparency around environmental footprints
Behaviours Relating to Free-from Food/Drink
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- Free-from ranges can be an important differentiator
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- Figure 38: Behaviours relating to free-from food/drink, October 2020
- Concerns around impact of Brexit need to be assuaged
- Free-from cooking is well-ingrained
- This interest can be harnessed by brands and retailers
Attitudes towards Free-from Food/Drink
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- Nutritional credentials are key
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- Figure 39: Attitudes towards free-from food and drink, October 2020
- Blends of cow’s milks and plant milk appeal to a third
- UK brands can take cues from international NPD in this area
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- Figure 40: Attitudes towards free-from food/drink, October 2020
Qualities Associated with Types of Free-from Food/drink
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- ‘Plant-based’ seen in a more positive light than ‘vegan’
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- Figure 41: Qualities associated with selected categories of free-from food/drink, October 2020
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- Figure 42: Further qualities associated with selected categories of free-from food/drink, October 2020
- Perceptions of limited availability remain
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Forecast methodology
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- Figure 43: UK retail value sales of free-from food and drink, best-and worst-case forecast, 2020-25
Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Figure 44: Share of seasonal food* product launches with free-from claims, by claim, 2016-20
- Figure 45: Share of gluten-free launches in the breakfast cereals, bakery, pasta and snack/cereal/energy bar markets, by branded versus private label, 2016-20
- Figure 46: Share of dairy-free launches in the dairy market, by branded versus private label, 2016-20
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