European Retail Forecasts to 2013 - March 2008

This report includes Mintel’s forecasts for the 29 leading economies in Europe.

Europe is a somewhat vague term and our definition is based on two factors – countries must be developed enough to have a retail sector worth examining, should have some available data and should be large enough to warrant inclusion.

Therefore, while we have included Russia, we have not included the countries that have regained their independence since 1990, such as Ukraine or Georgia. Nor have we included Turkey, part of which falls within most normally accepted definitions of Europe, but for which there is too little reliable data and the country is, in any case, just emerging from a period of hyperinflation. Nor have we included Iceland or Greenland, both of which are very small with even the larger, Iceland, having a population of under one million. Of the former Yugoslavia, we have included only Slovenia and Croatia.

The smallest country covered is Luxembourg and none of the smaller states such as Monaco, Liechtenstein or Malta is included.

Methodology:

Our forecasting model translates a global and national economic forecast into a detailed analysis of retail sector performance.

We have not aimed for great sophistication and have found that the most reliable straightforward model is to relate retail sales to national consumer spending and GDP trends. Inevitably, this means that we expect the relationships which have obtained in the recent past to continue over the next few years. However, we do have the ability to change this relationship where we feel that it is appropriate.

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