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Cookies - US - July 2019

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
What you need to know
The issues
Cookie sales growth is slow
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cookies and cookie mixes and dough, at current prices, 2014-24
Snacking is popular, but snack categories need to be on guard
Figure 2: Percentage growth in select snack categories, 2013-18
Future growth will require expanding occasions
Figure 3: Cookie consumption, April 2019
The opportunities
Cookies are treats: the good and the bad of it
Figure 4: Reasons for cookie consumption, April 2019
A third of cookie eaters are interested in low-sugar options
Figure 5: Cookie innovation of interest, April 2019
Cookie dough has growth potential
Figure 6: Total US sales of cookies and cookie mixes and dough, 2014-24 (fore)
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Omnipresence of snacking should help all snack categories grow
Sugar fears challenge sweet categories
Cookie sales grow 14% from 2014-19
Cookie growth trails behind other snack categories
Prepared cookies dominate cookie category; dough has growth potential
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Category sales grow 14% over the past five years
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cookies and cookie mixes and dough, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 8: Total US retail sales of cookies and cookie mixes and dough, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 9: Total US retail sales of cookies and cookie mixes and dough, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Prepared cookies comprise the lion’s share of sales
Figure 10: Segment share of total US sales of cookies and cookie mixes and dough, 2014 and 2019 (est)
Prepared cookie launches outpace other segments
Figure 11: Product launches, by segment, 2015-19*
Figure 12: Total US sales of cookies and cookie mixes and dough, 2014-24 (fore)
“Other” channels outsell supermarkets; cookies have strong online sales potential
Figure 13: Total US retail sales of cookies and cookie mixes and dough, by channel, at current prices, 2014-19
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Snacking is popular, but snack categories need to be on guard
Figure 14: Percentage growth in select snack categories, 2013-18
Figure 15: Snack purchase drivers, November 2018
Salty snack categories have a small advantage
Figure 16: Salty snack statements – Any agree: preference, January 2019
Sugar: the cookie monster
Figure 17: Sweetener usage trend, September 2018
Portability and portionability could help cookies grow appeal
Figure 18: Correspondence analysis – Symmetrical map – Perception of snacks, December 2018
Figure 19: Perception of snacks, December 2018
Packaged cookies can fend off bakeries through access and innovation
Figure 20: Attitudes toward in-store bakeries, November 2018
MARKET FACTORS 
Snack time all the time
Figure 21: Snacking frequency, January 2015 and November 2018
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Mondelēz brands control more than a third of MULO sales of cookies
Nostalgia helps some packaged cookie brands make gains
Clean label claims are on the rise
There’s room for flavor innovation in the category
COMPANIES AND BRAND SALES OF COOKIES
Mondelēz controls more than a third of MULO sales of cookies
Figure 22: Share of multi-outlet sales of cookies and cookie dough/mixes, by leading companies, 52 weeks ending March 24, 2019
Figure 23: Multi-outlet sales of cookies and cookie dough/mixes, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
WHAT’S WORKING?
Nostalgia helps some packaged cookie brands make gains
Oreo exemplifies how diversification can drive consumption
Health-focused brands see sales growth
Figure 24: Multi-outlet sales of cookies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
Growth of clean label suggest a move toward health positioning
Figure 25: Product launches, by claims, 2015-19*
Chocolate leads across all segments
Figure 26: Product launches, by flavor, 2015-19*
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Nestlé loses share to smaller brands
Figure 27: Multi-outlet sales of cookie dough, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
Cookie mix leaders see sales decline
Figure 28: Multi-outlet sales of cookie mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
WHAT’S NEXT?
Rise of the cookie dough
Improving cookie nutrition to increase permissibility, consumption frequency
Flavor frenzy
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
94% of US households eat cookies
Diversifying cookie types may increase cookie occasions
Cookies are seen as treats
A third of cookie eaters are interested in low-sugar options
Cookie mixes are seen as fresher than packaged cookies
COOKIE CONSUMPTION
94% of US households eat cookies
Figure 29: Cookie consumption, April 2019
Cookie cravings don’t fade with age
Figure 30: Cookie consumption – Purchase for myself, by age, April 2019
COOKIE TYPES CONSUMED
Cookies with chips and sandwich cookies lead
Figure 31: Cookie types consumed, April 2019
Figure 32: Repertoire of cookie types consumed, April 2019
Parents eat their kids’ cookies
Figure 33: Cookie types consumed, by parental status, April 2019
COOKIE SOURCE
Packaged cookies lead
Figure 34: Cookie source, April 2019
Women are more likely to make cookies at home
Figure 35: Cookie source, by gender, April 2019
Younger cookie eaters can be engaged in many ways
Figure 36: Cookie source, by age, April 2019
More than half of parents buy cookies from in-store bakeries
Figure 37: Cookie source, by parental status, April 2019
REASONS FOR COOKIE CONSUMPTION
Cookies are treats: the good and the bad of it
Figure 38: Reasons for cookie consumption, April 2019
Treat positioning key in outreach to women
Figure 39: Reasons for cookie consumption, by gender, April 2019
Functionality resonates with younger eaters
Figure 40: Reasons for cookie consumption, by age, April 2019
IMPORTANT COOKIE ATTRIBUTES
Flavor leads cookie choice
Figure 41: Important cookie attributes, April 2019
Women seek treat positioning in attributes
Figure 42: Important cookie attributes, by gender, April 2019
Price is especially important to young cookie eaters
Figure 43: Important cookie attributes, by age, April 2019
IDEAL COOKIE
Size
A quarter of cookie eaters want bite-sized options
Figure 44: Ideal cookie size, April 2019
A quarter of men want large cookie options
Figure 45: Ideal cookie size, by gender, April 2019
Younger shoppers are most interested in size variety
Figure 46: Ideal cookie size, by age, April 2019
Texture
Vast majority of cookie eaters want chewy options
Figure 47: Ideal cookie texture, April 2019
Cakey cookies appeal to younger consumers
Figure 48: Ideal cookie texture, by age, April 2019
COOKIE INNOVATION OF INTEREST
A third of cookie eaters are interested in low-sugar options
Figure 49: Cookie innovation of interest, April 2019
Men are interested in protein, women interested in clean label
Figure 50: Cookie innovation of interest, by gender, April 2019
Older consumers less interested in bells and whistles
Figure 51: Cookie innovation of interest, by age, April 2019
Low sugar cookies with simple ingredients appeal to half of cookie eaters
Figure 52: TURF Analysis – Interest in innovation, April 2019
Figure 53: Table - TURF Analysis – Interest in innovation, April 2019
PERCEPTION OF COOKIE TYPES
Packaged cookies struggle with health
Bakery section cookies perform well for taste, but could expand appeal
Cookies baked from scratch at home lead for comfort
Cookie mixes are seen as fresher than packaged cookies
Figure 54: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Perceptions of cookie types, April 2019
Figure 55: Perceptions of cookie types, April 2019
HEALTHY COOKIES
Sugar reduction is the clearest means of improving health perception…
Figure 56: Healthy cookies, April 2019
…but there are many options for health positioning
Figure 57: Healthy cookies, by age, April 2019
FOOD AND DRINK SHOPPER SEGMENTATION
Figure 58: Food/drink shopper segmentation, February 2019
Quality Seekers (34%)
Figure 59: Profile of Quality Seekers, February 2019
Adventure Eaters (34%)
Figure 60: Profile of Adventure Eaters, February 2019
Time Savers (17%)
Figure 61: Profile of Time Savers, February 2019
Value Chasers (15%)
Figure 62: Profile of Value Chasers, February 2019
Implications of food/drink consumer segments on cookies
Time Savers don’t rule out baking from a refrigerated/frozen mix
Figure 63: Cookie source, by food and drink shopper segmentation, April 2019
Value Chasers will invest for indulgence
Figure 64: Reasons for cookie consumption, by food and drink shopper segmentation, April 2019
Quality Seekers are willing to splurge
Figure 65: Important cookie attributes, by food and drink shopper segmentation, April 2019
Lots of routes to appeal to Adventure Eaters
Figure 66: Cookie innovation of interest, by food and drink shopper segmentation, April 2019
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
TURF methodology
Correspondence analysis methodology
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 68: US retail sales and forecast of cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookie dough, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookie dough, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 71: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookie mixes, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 72: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookie mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 73: US supermarket sales of cookies and cookie mixes, at current prices, 2014-19
Figure 74: US drugstore sales of cookies and cookie mixes, at current prices, 2014-19
Figure 75: Sales of cookies and cookie mixes at other retail channels, at current prices, 2014-19
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 76: Multi-outlet sales of cookies and cookie dough/mixes, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019

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