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British Lifestyles: A New Understanding of Corporate Ethics - UK - April 2019

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Britain today
Population continues to grow
Uncertainty has slowed down GDP growth…
Unemployment is down, real wages are up
Most people’s finances remain robust
Brexit concerns have increased with time running out for a deal
The consumer
Shoppers most conscious of rising expenditure on food
Figure 1: Changes in spending habits in the last 12 months, January 2019
The savvy shopper returns
Figure 2: Reasons why people spent less across all categories (netted across all sectors), January 2016-January 2019
Consumers most ethically-conscious when buying FMCG goods
Figure 3: Ethical consideration taken into account, by retail sector, January 2019
Corporate ethics: a semantic shift
Figure 4: Ethical considerations taken into account, by retail sector, January 2019 vs May 2015
Misuse of personal data; an ethical issue
Figure 5: Behaviours that people consider would make a business untrustworthy, January 2019
A nation of local business lovers
Figure 6: Correspondence Analysis - Words/phrases associated with different types of businesses, January 2019, January 2019
What we think
BRITAIN TODAY – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Population continues to grow
Shifting the focus to older children
The UK’s generational make-up
Uncertainty has slowed down GDP growth…
…and the housing market has started to stall
Unemployment is down, real wages are up
Most people’s finances remain robust
Brexit concerns have increased with time running out for a deal
THE PEOPLE
Population continues to grow
Figure 7: Trends in the UK population, 2003-23
Senior population proves leading growth factor
Figure 8: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2013-23
Shifting the focus to older children
Figure 9: Trends in the number of live births, England and Wales, 2000-17
Marketers focus on Millennials and Baby Boomers…
Figure 10: Generational structure of the UK population (projected), 2019
…but smaller generational groups prove of growing importance
THE ECONOMY
GDP growth held back by Brexit uncertainty
Figure 11: Quarterly % change in UK GDP, Q1 2012-Q4 2018
House price growth has stalled
Figure 12: Average house prices, UK, January 2012-December 2018
Unemployment is at a decades-long low…
Figure 13: Employment and unemployment, by gender, 2013-18
…and workers are enjoying real wage rises
Figure 14: Headline CPI inflation (12-month percentage change), vs average weekly earnings (3-month average), January 2013-January 2019
Financial wellbeing has slipped but is still healthy
Figure 15: Financial wellbeing index, January 2013-January 2019
Most are confident about the year ahead
Figure 16: Consumer financial confidence for the coming year, July 2017-January 2019
CONSUMERS’ RESPONSE TO THE EU REFERENDUM
Brexit concerns increase as negotiations come to a head
Figure 17: Expected impact of UK vote to leave the EU on wider economy and personal finances, January 2019
Worries have grown over savings and investments…
Figure 18: Balance of consumer opinion on the impact of the EU referendum on personal financial factors, December 2017-January 2019
…and the housing market
Figure 19: Balance of consumer opinion on the impact of the EU referendum on macroeconomic factors, December 2017-January 2019
Significant gender differences
Figure 20: Balance of consumer opinion on the impact of the EU referendum, by gender, January 2018
CONSUMER EXPENDITURE – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Consumer spending up 4%
Outlook for the next five years
Consumers loosen their belts and increase spending on food
Alcohol moderation trend drives innovation
Own-label BPC cuts into consumer spend
Brexit anxieties undermine demand for holidays…
…but the leisure market continues to boom…
Consumers limit spending on eating out
Price promotion culture hinder fashion sales
CONSUMER EXPENDITURE OVERVIEW
Consumer spending up 4%
Figure 21: Consumer expenditure, by sector (£billion), 2018
Figure 22: Consumer expenditure growth, by sector, 2017-18
Outlook for the next five years
Figure 23: Best- and worst-case forecast total value sales, 2013-23
Top performers over the next five years
Figure 24: Categories set to grow at a faster rate than total consumer spending projections over the next five years, at current prices, by % growth, 2018-23
Financial services sector projected to fare well
Slower growth sectors
Figure 25: Consumer sectors set to grow at a below-average rate, at current prices, by % growth, 2018-23
FOOD (RETAIL MARKET)
What we think
Market – Past, present, future
Figure 26: UK food retail market value, 2013-18
Figure 27: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the food retail market, at current prices, 2013-23
Mintel predictions
Winners for 2019
Chilled ready meals
Dairy-/lactose-free
Pot snacks
Fermented foods
Losers for 2019
Savoury biscuits
Beef and lamb
Cow’s milk
Changing consumer habits
Figure 28: Changes in spending habits on in-home food in 2018, January 2019
Key consumer findings
Healthy eating
Meat-free foods
Ready meals
Milk
Savoury biscuits
ALCOHOLIC DRINKS (RETAIL MARKET)
What we think
Market – Past, present, future
Figure 29: UK alcoholic drinks retail market value, 2013-18
Figure 30: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the alcoholic drinks retail market, at current prices, 2013-23
Mintel predictions
Winners for 2019
Gin
Cider
Losers for 2019
Champagne
Vodka
Changing consumer habits
Figure 31: Changes in spending habits on alcoholic drinks in 2018, January 2019
Key consumer findings
Beer
Wine
Spirits
Cider
Alcoholic drinks review
NON-ALCOHOLIC DRINKS (RETAIL MARKET)
What we think
Market – Past, present, future
Figure 32: UK non-alcoholic drinks (retail market) value, 2013-18
Figure 33: Best- and worst-case forecast retail value sales of the non-alcoholic drinks retail market, at current prices, 2013-23
Mintel predictions
Winners for 2019
Adult soft drinks
Smoothies
Losers for 2019
Tea
Fruit juice
Changing consumer habits
Figure 34: Changes in spending habits on non-alcoholic drinks in 2018, January 2019
Key consumer findings
Attitudes to low/no/reduced sugar soft drinks
Soft drinks review
What children drink
BEAUTY AND PERSONAL CARE
What we think
Market – Past, present, future
Figure 35: UK beauty and personal care market value, 2013-18
Figure 36: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the beauty and personal care market, at current prices, 2013-23
Mintel predictions
Winners for 2019
Suncare
Colour cosmetics
Body, hand and footcare
Losers for 2019
Men’s facial skincare and haircare
Shaving and hair removal
Changing consumer habits
Figure 37: Changes in spending habits on beauty products and toiletries in 2018, January 2019
Key consumer findings
Colour cosmetics
Hand, body and footcare
Shaving and hair removal
Men’s facial skincare
Men’s haircare
OTC AND PHARMACEUTICALS
What we think
Market – Past, present, future
Figure 38: UK OTC and pharmaceuticals market value, 2013-18
Figure 39: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the OTC and pharmaceuticals market, at current prices, 2013-23
Mintel predictions
Winners for 2019
Allergy remedies
OTC analgesics
Losers for 2019
Smoking cessation
Sexual health
Changing consumer habits
Figure 40: Changes in spending habits on healthcare products in 2018, January 2019
Key consumer findings
Smoking cessation and E-cigarettes
OTC analgesics
Managing stress and wellbeing
Managing a healthy lifestyle
HOUSEHOLD CARE
What we think
Market – Past, present, future
Figure 41: UK household care market value, 2013-18
Figure 42: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the household care market, at current prices, 2013-23
Mintel predictions
Winners for 2019
Air care
Household paper products
Losers for 2019
Laundry detergents and fabric care
Dishwashing products
Hard surface cleaning and care products
Changing consumer habits
Figure 43: Changes in spending habits on household care products in 2018, January 2019
Key consumer findings
Air care
Dishwashing products
Household paper products
Laundry detergents and fabric care
HOLIDAYS
What we think
Market – Past, present, future
Figure 44: UK holidays market value, 2013-18
Figure 45: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales^ of domestic^^ and overseas holidays taken by UK residents, 2013-23
Mintel predictions
Winners for 2019
Sea and river cruises
The domestic holiday market
Destinations with a favourable exchange rate
The luxury travel market
Losers for 2019
Overseas business travel
Skiing holidays
Changing consumer habits
Figure 46: Changes in spending habits on holidays in 2018, January 2019
Key consumer findings
Cruises
Staycations
All-inclusive
LEISURE 
What we think
Market – Past, present, future
Figure 47: UK leisure market value, 2013-18
Figure 48: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the leisure market, at current prices, 2013-23
Mintel predictions
Winners for 2019
Online gambling
Health and fitness clubs
Losers for 2019
Nightclubs
Public health and fitness
Betting shops
Changing consumer habits
Figure 49: Changes in spending habits on leisure in 2018, January 2019
Key consumer findings
Online gambling
Health and fitness clubs
Nightclubs
Public leisure centres/swimming pools
FOODSERVICE
What we think
Market – Past, present, future
Figure 50: UK foodservice market value, 2013-18
Figure 51: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the foodservice market, at current prices, 2013-23
Mintel predictions
Winners for 2019
Dark kitchens
Spin-off delivery brands
Southeast Asian cuisines
Losers for 2019
Specialist takeaways
Burger and chicken restaurants
Changing consumer habits
Figure 52: Changes in spending habits on eating out in 2018, January 2019
Key consumer findings
Menu trends
Pizza and Italian restaurants
Coffee shops
TRANSPORT
What we think
Market – Past, present, future
Figure 53: UK transport market value, 2013-18
Figure 54: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the transport market, at current prices, 2013-23
Mintel predictions
Winners for 2019
Alternatively fuelled cars
Air routes to low-cost destinations
Losers for 2019
New and used cars
Diesel cars
Business air travellers
Key consumer findings
Cars
Airlines
FASHION
What we think
Market – Past, present, future
Figure 55: UK clothing, footwear and accessories market value, 2013-18
Figure 56: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the clothing, footwear and accessories market, at current prices, 2013-23
Mintel predictions
Winners for 2019
Womenswear
Underwear
Losers for 2019
Childrenswear
Menswear
Changing consumer habits
Figure 57: Changes in spending habits on clothing and accessories in 2018, January 2019
Key consumer findings
Clothing
Underwear
Footwear
Childrenswear
HOME AND GARDEN
What we think
Market – Past, present, future
Figure 58: UK home and garden market value, 2013-18
Figure 59: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the home and garden market, at current prices, 2013-23
Mintel predictions
Winners for 2019
Home accessories
Garden products
Losers for 2019
DIY big box specialists
Boxed mattress brands
Changing consumer habits
Figure 60: Changes in spending habits on home and garden products in 2018, January 2019
Key consumer findings
Furniture
DIY
Gardens
Homewares
NEWSAGENTS’ GOODS
What we think
Market – Past, present, future
Figure 61: UK newsagents’ goods market value, 2013-18
Figure 62: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the newsagents’ goods market, at current prices, 2013-23
Key consumer findings
Seasonal shopping
Cigarettes
Lotteries
Newspapers
Magazines
Greetings cards
HOUSING 
What we think
Market – Past, present, future
Figure 63: UK housing market value, 2013-18
Figure 64: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the housing market, at current prices, 2013-23
Changing consumer habits
Key consumer findings
Mortgages
Mortgage advice
Property as an Investment
PERSONAL FINANCE
What we think
Market – Past, present, future
Figure 65: UK personal finance market value, 2013-18
Figure 66: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the personal finance market, at current prices, 2013-23
Mintel predictions
Winners for 2019
Small business banking
Insurance and innovation
Losers for 2019
The lifetime ISA
High cost lending
Changing consumer habits
Key consumer findings
Small business banking
Consumers and insurance innovation
Unsecured loans
Consumers, saving and investing
TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATIONS
What we think
Market – Past, present, future
Figure 67: UK technology and communications market value, 2013-18
Figure 68: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the technology and communications market, at current prices, 2013-23
Mintel predictions
Winners for 2019
Video streaming services
Losers for 2019
Pay-TV
Changing consumer habits
Figure 69: Changes in spending habits on technology and communications in 2018, January 2019
Key consumer findings
Desktop, laptops and tablets
Games consoles
TVs
Wearables
Virtual reality
PC, mobile and voice
Bundled communications
MISCELLANEOUS EXPENDITURE
What we think
Market – Past, present, future
Figure 70: UK miscellaneous expenditure market value, 2013-18
Figure 71: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the miscellaneous expenditure market, at current prices, 2013-23
Winners for 2019
Optical goods
Funerals
Pet food and pet care retailing
Losers for 2019
Disposable nappies and wipes
Key consumer findings
Optical goods
Pet food and services
Nappies and baby wipes
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Shoppers most conscious of rising expenditure on food
Consumers cut spending on eating out
The savvy shopper returns
Beauty bargain hunting
Consumers most ethically-conscious when buying FMCG goods…
…but an evolving definition of corporate ethics is gaining pace
Misuse of personal data; an ethical issue
Tax avoidance proves leading cause for concern for over-65s
Few deem multinational businesses good for the UK economy
A nation of local business lovers
CHANGES IN SPENDING HABITS 
Consumers most conscious of rising expenditure on food
Figure 72: Changes in spending habits in the last 12 months, January 2019
Gen Z drive spending on experiences…
Figure 73: Generation Z spending more in the last 12 months, vs average, by category, January 2019
Figure 74: Selfridges ‘Bowl’ in-store skate park, February 2019
…and pose opportunity for the future of luxury fashion
Figure 75: Gucci Spring Summer 2019, February 2019
Consumers limit spending on eating out
Figure 76: Difference between proportions of people spending more and less, January 2019 vs January 2018
REASONS WHY PEOPLE SPENT LESS 
The savvy shopper returns
Figure 77: Reasons why people spent less across all categories (netted across all sectors), January 2016-January 2019
The joys of bargain hunting
Figure 78: Reasons why people spent less in 2018 – Financial factors, by category, January 2019
Beauty bargain hunters
Figure 79: Proportion of people who spent less by “looking for the best deal”, by category, January 2019
Figure 80: Amazon ‘Find Beauty’, 2019
Are health concerns cutting into alcohol expenditure?
Figure 81: Proportion of people who spent less due to non-financial factors, by category, January 2019
ETHICAL BUYING CONSIDERATIONS 
Consumers most ethically-conscious when buying FMCG goods
Figure 82: Ethical consideration taken into account, by retail sector, January 2019
Beauty and personal care proves most ethically driven purchase
Figure 83: Launches in across the beauty and personal care category carrying ‘ethical – animal’ and ‘ethical – environmentally-friendly packaging’ claims, 2015-18
Animal welfare is a major consumer concern
Figure 84: Head & Shoulders Beach Plastic Bottle Momentum for Change Award, October 2017
Corporate ethics: a semantic shift
Figure 85: Ethical consideration taken into account, by retail sector, January 2019 vs May 2015
Are people making more differentiation between “ethical” and “environmental” concerns?
Ethical decision making follows traditional gender stereotypes
Figure 86: Ethical consideration taken into account, by sector and gender, January 2019
Marketing re-enforcing the gender gap in ethical behaviour
Figure 87: Schweppes’ ‘The Dress for Respect’ campaign, November 2018
FACTORS UNDERMINING TRUST IN BUSINESSES 
Misuse of personal data; an ethical issue
Figure 88: Behaviours that people consider would make a business untrustworthy, January 2019
GDPR has brought privacy to the fore
Figure 89: C4 Viewers Promise Campaign, 2016
Tax avoidance proves leading cause for concern for over-65s
Figure 90: Proportion of adults who cite “tax avoidance” as one of their top factors that they consider to make a business untrustworthy, by age and household income, January 2019
People think companies should pay their fair share of taxes…
…but many blame legislators more than the companies themselves
The importance of customer service
PERCEPTIONS OF BUSINESSES 
Few deem multinational businesses good for the UK economy
Figure 91: Correspondence Analysis – Words/phrases associated with different types of businesses, January 2019
Figure 92: Words/phrases associated with different types of businesses, January 2019
A nation of local business lovers
Are multinationals killing Britain’s sense of community?
Figure 93: Facebook UK ‘Let's Get To Work’ campaign, March 2018
Bringing local businesses into the supply chain
Figure 94: Amazon ‘Storefronts’ initiative, September 2018
Meeting a higher ethical standard
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology
Correspondence analysis
Forecast methodology
APPENDIX – FOOD (RETAIL MARKET)
Figure 95: UK retail value sales of food (retail market), at current and constant prices, 2013-23
APPENDIX – ALCOHOLIC DRINKS (RETAIL MARKET)
Figure 96: UK retail value sales of alcoholic drinks (retail market), at current and constant prices, 2013-23
APPENDIX – NON-ALCOHOLIC DRINKS (RETAIL MARKET)
Figure 97: UK retail value sales of non-alcoholic drinks, at current and constant prices, 2012-22
APPENDIX – BEAUTY AND PERSONAL CARE
Figure 98: UK retail value sales of beauty and personal care products, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
APPENDIX – OTC AND PHARMACEUTICALS 
Figure 99: UK retail value sales of OTC and pharmaceuticals, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
APPENDIX – HOUSEHOLD CARE
Figure 100: UK retail value sales of household care products, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
APPENDIX – FASHION
Figure 101: UK retail value sales of clothing and accessories, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
APPENDIX – HOLIDAYS
Figure 102: UK holidays market, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
APPENDIX – LEISURE 
Figure 103: UK leisure market, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
APPENDIX – FOODSERVICE
Figure 104: UK retail value sales of foodservice, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
APPENDIX – HOME AND GARDEN
Figure 105: UK retail value sales for home and garden products, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
APPENDIX – TRANSPORT
Figure 106: UK transport market, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
APPENDIX – NEWSAGENTS’ GOODS
Figure 107: UK retail value sales of newsagents’ goods, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
APPENDIX – PERSONAL FINANCES
Figure 108: UK retail value sales of personal finance products, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
APPENDIX – HOUSING
Figure 109: UK housing market, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
APPENDIX – TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATION
Figure 110: UK retail value sales of technology and communication products, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
APPENDIX – MISCELLANEOUS EXPENDITURE 
Figure 111: Miscellaneous expenditure, at current and constant prices, 2013-23

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