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Dining Out in 2019 - US - December 2018

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
Overview
The issues
FSR segment experiences slowed growth
Figure 1: Total US revenues and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, at current prices, 2018 and 2023
Cooking at home is restaurants’ biggest competition
Figure 2: Planned dining out behavior for 2019, October 2018
The opportunities
Americans love dining out
Figure 3: Restaurant attitudes, October 2018
Diners want restaurants to serve the greater good
Figure 4: Areas of concentration for restaurants – Net any rank, October 2018
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Restaurant revenues expected to grow, fueled by rising costs
FSR segment experiences slowed growth
Grocery delivery offers new competition for prepared meals
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Restaurant revenues expected to grow in 2019
Figure 5: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of restaurants and eating places*, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 6: Total US revenues and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, at current prices, 2013-23
MARKET BREAKDOWN
LSR segment growth will outperform FSR segment
Figure 7: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of full-service restaurants, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 8: Total US revenues and forecast of full-service restaurants, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 9: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 10: Total US revenues and forecast of limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 11: Total US revenues and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, at current prices, 2018 and 2023
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
More meal kit options become available
Online grocery retailers deliver prepared meals
Figure 12: Total us online sales of groceries*, at current prices, 2013-18
MARKET FACTORS 
At-home sales continue to grow
Figure 13: BEA food and non-alcoholic beverage sales at home and away from home, January 2010-September 2018
Positive economic conditions ahead
Figure 14: Consumer sentiment index, January 2007- August 2018
Consumers have more discretionary funds
Figure 15: Disposable Personal Income change from previous period, January 2007-July 2018
KEY TRENDS– WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Restaurants become lifestyle brands
Not all consumers are interested in more ordering options
Restaurants do more for employees and the Earth
WHAT’S WORKING?
Off-premise dining helps casual dining restaurants boost sales
More than half of consumers plan on using mobile-to-go order and pickup
Customers define their relationship with restaurants
Figure 16: Brand posts engagement across all social channels
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Labor market is tightening
Figure 17: Unemployment and underemployment, January 2007-January 2018
Kiosk ordering is not appealing to all customers
WHAT’S NEXT?
Restaurants focus on sustaining good environmental practices
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Dining out is a favorite activity
Consumer interest in FSRs differs from LSRs
Doing good is important to diners
RESTAURANT VISITATION 
Fast food restaurants are most visited
Figure 18: Restaurant visitation in the past three months, October 2018
Figure 19: Restaurant segment visitation in the past three months, October 2018
Generational differences play a key role in restaurant visitation
Figure 20: Restaurant visitation in the past three months, by generation, October 2018
Higher household income customers more interested in premium dining options
Figure 21: Restaurant visitation in the past three months, by household income, October 2018
Parents are top restaurant-goers
Figure 22: Restaurant visitation in the past three months, by parental status by gender, October 2018
Figure 23: Breakfast/brunch beverages of interest – Coffee, April 2018
Black customers are top fast food restaurant visitors
Figure 24: Restaurant visitation in the past three months, by Race and Hispanic origin, October 2018
Figure 25: Adventurous eater segmentation by race, July 2018
Regional differences are a factor in restaurant visitation
Figure 26: Restaurant visitation in the past three months, by region, October 2018
RESTAURANT SEGMENT PREFERENCES 
Customer expectations differ across restaurant segments
Figure 27: Restaurant segment preferences, October 2018
Asian consumers are interested in shareable plates
Figure 28: Restaurant segment preferences – LSRs, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2018
Younger consumers desire greater ingredient transparency from LSRs
Figure 29: Restaurant segment preferences – LSRs, by gender/age, October 2018
Younger consumers are interested in greater drink selection and specials at FSRs
Figure 30: Restaurant segment preferences – FSRs, by gender and age, October 2018
iGens are interested in posting about dining experiences on social media
Figure 31: Restaurant Segment preferences – coffee/tea shops, by generation, October 2018
Figure 32: Consumer sentiment by mentions of Instagram-worthy décor and restaurants
RESTAURANT BEHAVIORS 
Restaurants must be inclusive of all customer needs
Figure 33: Restaurant behaviors, October 2018
Figure 34: Restaurant behaviors by restaurant segment visitation, October 2018
Price drives restaurant selection for younger consumers
Figure 35: Restaurant Behaviors, by generation, October 2018
Menu nutrition information factors into restaurant selection
Figure 36: Restaurant behaviors, by generation, October 2018
Lower-income households desire convenience and more cash payment options
Figure 37: Restaurant Behaviors, by household income, October 2018
Appeal to Black and Hispanic consumers with prepared snack options
Figure 38: Restaurant Behaviors, by race & Hispanic origin, October 2018
RESTAURANT ATTITUDES
Dining out is a favorite activity for consumers
Figure 39: Restaurant Attitudes, October 2018
Urban consumers view restaurant spending differently
Figure 40: Restaurant Attitudes, by area, October 2018
Younger generations have a personal connection to restaurants
Figure 41: Restaurant Attitudes, by generation, October 2018
Asian and Hispanic consumers prefer to spend money on dining out
Figure 42: Restaurant Attitudes, by race & Hispanic origin, October 2018
PLANNED DINING OUT BEHAVIOR FOR 2019
Dining out remains a top social occasion for consumers
Figure 43: Planned dining out behavior for 2019, October 2018
Almost one fourth of iGens plan to visit LSRs less often in 2019
Figure 44: Planned dining out behavior for 2019- Visit limited service restaurants, by generation, October 2018
Figure 45: Planned dining out behavior for 2019 – visit full service restaurants, by generation, October 2018
Parents plan to dine out more often in 2019
Figure 46: Planned dining out behavior for 2019 – dine out with friends and family, by parental status and gender, October 2018
Ordering technology is mostly used by younger consumers
Figure 47: Planned dining out behavior for 2019 – mobile ordering and pickup, by generation, October 2018
Figure 48: Planned dining out behavior for 2019-third-party delivery company usage, by generation, October 2018
AREAS OF CONCENTRATION FOR RESTAURANTS
Consumers want restaurants to do good
Figure 49: Areas of Concentration for Restaurants, October 2018
Delivery important to younger consumers
Figure 50: Areas of Concentration for Restaurants- More Delivery options, by generation, October 2018
Figure 51: Restaurant delivery & carry out net usage in the past three months, by generation, September 2018
Sustainable packaging of special interest to older generations
Figure 52: Areas of Concentration for Restaurants –  less packaging waste, by generation, October 2018
Social media is more important to younger generations
Figure 53: Areas of Concentration for Restaurants – social media engagement with customers, by generation, October 2018
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms

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