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Sweet Biscuits and Snack Bars - UK - April 2018

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Solid growth for sweet biscuits and cereal bars
Continuing NPD crucial to sales growth
Figure 1: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of sweet biscuits, breakfast biscuits and cereal/snack bars, 2012-22
Sweet biscuits show strong sales growth
Positive health perceptions and NPD help cereal bars
Sugar reduction guideline set for biscuit companies
Ageing population could limit sales growth
Companies and brands
McVitie’s Digestives has big lead in sweet biscuits
Figure 2: Leading manufacturers’ sales in the regular sweet biscuits market, by value, 2017/18*
KitKat accounts for a fifth of chocolate biscuit bar sales
Figure 3: Leading manufacturers’ sales in the chocolate biscuit bars market, by value, 2017/18*
Kellogg’s sales continue to decline
Figure 4: Leading manufacturers’ sales in the breakfast biscuits and cereal/snack bars market, by value, 2017/18*
Focus on more indulgent treats and new flavours
Well-known brands move into biscuits and snack bars
Cereal/snack bars look to on-trend flavours
Protein and superfood ingredients feature in NPD
The consumer
Sweet biscuits have almost universal appeal
Figure 5: Types of sweet biscuits and cereal/snack bars eaten in the last 3 months, February 2018
Just 9% of eaters snack on sweet biscuits daily
Figure 6: Frequency of eating sweet biscuits and cereal/snack bars, February 2018
Sweet biscuits have a place in out-of-home snacking
Indulgent and healthier options both wanted
Interest in more flavours and texture combinations
Figure 7: Interest in product features for sweet biscuits, February 2018
High incidence of trying new products
Seven in 10 limit their eating of biscuits
Biscuits not just for sharing for most people
Figure 8: Behaviour in relation to sweet biscuits and cereal/snack bars, February 2018
Handmade biscuits and nicer packaging give premium cues
A raft of products compete for sharing occasions
Figure 9: Attitudes towards sweet biscuits and cereal/snack bars, February 2018
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Focusing on indulgence offers a way to add value to sales
The facts
The implications
Catering for demand for better-for-you snacking important
The facts
The implications
Format development can help unlock more occasions
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Solid sales growth for sweet biscuits and cereal bars
Biscuits face challenge to grow volume sales
Continuing NPD crucial to sales growth
Sweet biscuits enjoy strong sales growth
Positive health perceptions and NPD help cereal bars
Sugar reduction guideline set for biscuit companies
War on sugar fuels consumer concern about ingredients
Snacking culture drives demand for biscuits
Ageing population could limit sales growth
Growth in child population important
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Sweet biscuits and cereal bars record solid sales growth
Figure 10: Total UK retail volume and value sales of sweet biscuits, breakfast biscuits and cereal/snack bars, 2012-22
Biscuits face challenge increasing volume sales
Figure 11: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of sweet biscuits, breakfast biscuits and cereal/snack bars, 2012-22
Figure 12: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of sweet biscuits, breakfast biscuits and cereal/snack bars, 2012-22
Forecast methodology
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Sweet biscuits show strong sales growth
Figure 13: Total UK retail volume and value sales of sweet biscuits, 2012-22
Figure 14: UK retail value and volume sales of sweet biscuits, by biscuits and chocolate biscuit bars, 2015-17
Spotlight on sugar stands to curb volume growth
Figure 15: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of sweet biscuits, 2012-22
Figure 16: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of sweet biscuits, 2012-22
Positive health perceptions and NPD helping cereal bars
Figure 17: Total UK retail volume and value sales of breakfast biscuits and cereal/snack bars, 2012-22
Guilt-free image should support future demand
Figure 18: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of breakfast biscuits and cereal/snack bars, 2012-22
Figure 19: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of breakfast biscuits and cereal/snack bars, 2012-22
MARKET DRIVERS
Sugar reduction a challenge for biscuit companies
Government sets 2020 targets
PHE encouraging healthier kids’ snacking
Sugar also a big concern for consumers
Figure 20: Top five factors deemed important when looking for healthy food, November 2017
Snacking culture important for biscuit sales
Figure 21: Attributes important when looking for a snack, February 2018
Home baking only a small threat to biscuit sales
Figure 22: 'I bake sweet biscuits/cookies at home’, by age, February 2018
Ageing population could limit sales growth
Growth in child population important
Figure 23: Trends in age structure of the UK population, 2012-22
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
McVitie’s Digestives has big lead in sweet biscuits
KitKat accounts for a fifth of chocolate biscuit bar sales
Kellogg’s sales continue to decline
Focus on more indulgent treats
New flavours look to add more excitement
Well-known brands move into biscuits and snack bars
Cereal/snack bars look to on-trend flavours and ingredients
Protein and superfood ingredients features of NPD
Marked increase in 2017 advertising spending
McVitie’s stands for quality and good value
MARKET SHARE
McVitie’s Digestives has big lead in sweet biscuits
Figure 24: Leading brands’ sales in the sweet biscuits market, by value and volume, 2016/17 and 2017/18
Mixed fortunes in chocolate biscuit bars
Figure 25: Leading brands’ sales in the chocolate biscuit bars market, by value and volume, 2016/17 and 2017/18
Kellogg’s sales continue to decline
Figure 26: Leading brands’ sales in the breakfast biscuits and cereal/snack bars market, by value and volume, 2016/17 and 2017/18
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Focus on indulgent treats
Melting middles add more texture variety
New flavours being used to add more excitement
More Thins ranges launched
Bites and mini biscuits add more variety
New entries and brand extensions
Nutella moves into biscuit bars
Chocolate brands expand their presence in biscuits
Range of gluten-free products increasing
Belvita adds new products to breakfast range
Mars launches Goodness Knows
Major brands look to on-trend flavours and ingredients
On-trend flavours appear in bars
Products with ‘protein’ labels a continuing feature of NPD
Superfood ingredients can help give products standout
PHE’s 2020 target ups the pressure for sugar reduction
New recipe for Kellogg’s range
28% of biscuit launches meet PHE target
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Marked increase in 2017 advertising spending
Figure 27: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on sweet biscuits, shortbread, cereal bars and breakfast biscuits, 2014-18
Figure 28: Share of total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on sweet biscuits, shortbread, cereal bars and breakfast biscuits, by segment, 2014-18
Mondelēz leads spending in sweet biscuits
Figure 29: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on sweet biscuits and shortbread, by top 10 advertisers (sorted by 2017), 2014-18
Oreo most heavily supported brand
Nibbles accounts for biggest part of McVitie’s ‘Sweeet’ advertising
Bahlsen increases advertising support
Border Biscuits takes nostalgic theme
Lotus Biscoff looks to appeal to younger audience
Return to advertising for Maryland in 2018
Big increase in spending for cereal bars and breakfast biscuits
Figure 30: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cereal bars and breakfast biscuits, by advertiser, 2014-18
Belvita pushes Good Mornings campaign
Big support for Nutella B-Ready launch
Tennis tie-ups for Nature Valley
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
BRAND RESEARCH
Brand map
Figure 31: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, April 2018
Key brand metrics
Figure 32: Key metrics for selected brands, April 2018
Brand attitudes: Oreo seen as a more innovative brand
Figure 33: Attitudes, by brand, April 2018
Brand personality: Cadbury Biscuits the most fun brand
Figure 34: Brand personality – Macro image, April 2018
McVitie’s most traditional and family brand
Figure 35: Brand personality – Micro image, April 2018
Brand analysis
Cadbury Biscuits the most delicious and indulgent brand
Figure 36: User profile of Cadbury Biscuits, April 2018
McVitie’s offers the best value
Figure 37: User profile of McVitie’s, April 2018
Fox’s seen as a traditional and family brand
Figure 38: User profile of Fox’s, April 2018
Being indulgent a key strength for Bahlsen
Figure 39: User profile of Bahlsen, April 2018
Maryland good value but less innovative
Figure 40: User profile of Maryland, April 2018
Oreo seen as innovative, fun and most cool brand
Figure 41: User profile of Oreo, April 2018
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Sweet biscuits have almost universal appeal
Just 9% of eaters snack on sweet biscuits daily
Sweet biscuits have a place in out-of-home snacking
Indulgent and healthier options both wanted
Interest in more flavours and texture combinations
High incidence of trying new products
Seven in 10 limit their eating of biscuits
Biscuits not just for sharing for most people
Handmade biscuits and nicer packaging give premium cues
A raft of products compete for sharing occasions
EATING OF SWEET BISCUITS AND CEREAL/SNACK BARS
Sweet biscuits have almost universal appeal
Figure 42: Number of different types of sweet biscuits and cereal/snack bars eaten in the last 3 months, February 2018
Seven in 10 Brits eat chocolate biscuits
Figure 43: Types of sweet biscuits and cereal/snack bars eaten in the last 3 months, February 2018
FREQUENCY OF EATING SWEET BISCUITS AND CEREAL/SNACK BARS 
Few eaters snack on biscuits more than three times a week
Figure 44: Frequency of eating sweet biscuits and cereal/snack bars, February 2018
WHEN PEOPLE EAT SWEET BISCUITS AND CEREAL/SNACK BARS
Sweet biscuits make inroads into out-of-home snacking
Figure 45: When people eat sweet biscuits and cereal/snack bars, February 2018
Cereal/snack bars a popular breakfast option
Breakfast biscuits are not just for breakfast
INTEREST IN PRODUCT FEATURES
Indulgent and healthier options both wanted
Demand for thick chocolate blurs category boundaries
Figure 46: Interest in product features for sweet biscuits, February 2018
Wholegrain, fruit pieces and oats appeal
Interest in more flavours and texture combinations
CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR IN RELATION TO SWEET BISCUITS AND CEREAL/SNACK BARS
High incidence of trying new products fuels need for constant NPD
Figure 47: Behaviour in relation to sweet biscuits and cereal/snack bars, February 2018
Seven in 10 limit their eating of biscuits
Biscuits are not just for sharing for most people
ATTITUDES TOWARDS SWEET BISCUITS AND CEREAL/SNACK BARS
Handmade sweet biscuits and nicer packaging give premium cues
Figure 48: Attitudes towards sweet biscuits and cereal/snack bars, February 2018
A raft of products compete for sharing occasions
Younger people are most drawn to indulgent and guilt-free options
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Forecast methodology
Figure 49: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of sweet biscuits, breakfast biscuits and cereal/snack bars, 2012-22
Figure 50: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of sweet biscuits, breakfast biscuits and cereal/snack bars, 2012-22
APPENDIX – SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Figure 51: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of sweet biscuits, 2012-22
Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of sweet biscuits, 2012-22
Figure 53: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of breakfast biscuits and cereal/snack bars, 2012-22
Figure 54: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of breakfast biscuits and cereal/snack bars, 2012-22
APPENDIX – MARKET SHARE
Figure 55: Leading manufacturers’ sales in the regular sweet biscuits market, by value and volume, 2016/17 and 2017/18
Figure 56: Leading manufacturers’ sales in the chocolate biscuit bars market, by value and volume, 2016/17 and 2017/18
Figure 57: Leading manufacturers’ sales in the breakfast biscuits and cereal/snack bars, by value and volume, 2016/17 and 2017/18
APPENDIX – LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Figure 58: New product launches in the UK sweet biscuits/cookies market, share by top 15 companies*, January 2013-December 2017
Figure 59: New product launches in the UK sweet biscuits/cookies market, share by top 15 claims*, January 2013-December 2017
Figure 60: New product launches in the UK snack/cereal/energy bars, share by top 15 companies*, January 2013-December 2017
Figure 61: New product launches in the UK snack/cereal/energy bars, share by top 15 claims*, January 2013-December 2017

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