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Ice Cream and Desserts - UK - September 2017

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this Report
Ice cream
Desserts
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
The ice cream and desserts market bounces back
Figure 1: UK retail sales of ice cream and desserts, by value, 2012-22
Sugar remains a controversial subject
Ageing population continues to present a challenge
Companies and brands
Unilever brands continue to dominate ice cream
Chilled and frozen desserts grow while ambient desserts struggle
Figure 2: Leading brand value sales in the ice cream and desserts market, 2016/17
Adspend on ice cream and desserts falls back in 2016
NPD activity in the category remains largely flat year-on-year
The consumer
Ice cream and desserts continue to enjoy wide popularity
Figure 3: Usage of ice cream and desserts, July 2017
Healthier variants key to boosting usage
Figure 4: Factors which would encourage increased usage of ice cream and desserts, July 2017
High quality ingredients are the best premium signal
Figure 5: Factors associated with premium ice cream and desserts, July 2017
Multibuys appeal in desserts
Almost three in five category users often eat desserts on evenings in
Figure 6: Behaviours relating to ice cream and desserts, July 2017
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Ice cream can tap into the protein craze
The facts
The implications
Ice cream and desserts could find a place in lunchtime meal deals
The facts
The implications
International inspiration appeals in ice cream and desserts
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
The ice cream and desserts market bounces back
Ice cream remains in growth…
…Due to the strong performance of handheld multipacks
Dessert sales largely flat overall despite uneven segment performance
Ageing population continues to present a challenge
Sugar remains a controversial subject
Discounters increase competition for brands and other multiples
MARKET SIZE AND SEGMENTATION
The ice cream and desserts market bounces back
Figure 7: Total UK retail sales of ice cream and desserts, by value, 2012-22
Figure 8: UK retail sales of ice cream and desserts, by value, 2012-22
Ice cream in growth in 2016-17
Figure 9: UK retail sales of ice cream, by value and volume, 2012-22
Figure 10: UK retail sales of ice cream, by value, 2012-22
Figure 11: UK retail sales of ice cream, by volume, 2012-22
Handheld multipacks drive ice cream’s growth
Figure 12: UK retail sales of ice cream, by type, by value and volume, 2014-17
Overall dessert sales remain broadly flat
Figure 13: UK retail sales of desserts, by value and volume, 2012-22
Figure 14: UK retail sales of desserts, by value, 2012-22
Figure 15: UK retail sales of desserts, by volume, 2012-22
Chilled desserts forge ahead
Figure 16: UK retail sales of desserts, by type, by value and volume, 2012-17
Figure 17: Proportion of UK value and volume retail sales of desserts, by segment, 2016
Forecast methodology
MARKET DRIVERS
Sugar remains a controversial subject
Figure 18: Trends in body mass index (BMI), England, 1996-2015
Discounters step up competition for brands and other multiples
Figure 19: Annual percentage change in CPI and AWE (regular pay), monthly basis, January 2012-May 2017
Warmer periods can boost market sales
The UK’s population is ageing
Figure 20: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2012-22
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Unilever brands continue to dominate ice cream
Chilled desserts benefit from own-label/other brand growth while ambient desserts struggle
Frozen desserts forge ahead
Adspend on ice cream and desserts falls back in 2016
NPD activity in the category remains largely flat year-on-year
MARKET SHARE
Unilever brands continue to dominate ice cream
Figure 21: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK ice cream retail market, by value and volume 2014/15-2016/17
A strong performance from Häagen Dazs
Chilled desserts benefit from own-label/other brand growth
Figure 22: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK chilled desserts retail market, by value and volume 2014/15-2016/17
Ambient desserts continue to struggle
Figure 23: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK ambient desserts retail market, by value and volume 2014/15-2016/17
Frozen desserts forge ahead
Figure 24: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK frozen desserts retail market, by value and volume 2014/15-2016/17
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Adspend on ice cream and desserts falls back in 2016
Figure 25: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on ice cream and desserts, 2013-17
Unilever slashed adspend by almost a third in 2016
Figure 26: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on ice cream and desserts, by top five companies, 2013-17
Figure 27: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on ice cream and desserts, by top five brands, 2013-17
Figure 28: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on ice cream and desserts, by retailers, 2013-2017
Magnum adspend falls away before rebounding in 2017
Müller reduces its adspend in 2016…
…But still focuses heavily on well-being and active consumers
The large ice cream tub brands cut back in 2016
Other notable advertising campaigns
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
NPD activity in the category remains largely flat year-on-year
Figure 29: Percentage share of NPD in the UK ice cream and desserts market, by segment, 2013-17*
Retailers drive the NPD agenda
Figure 30: NPD in the UK ice cream and desserts market, by top 10 companies (sorted by 2016), 2013-17
Ice cream tub brands react with their own NPD activity
Shared mousses feature prominently in the desserts segment
Health features prominently in NPD
Figure 31: NPD in the UK ice cream and desserts market, by leading claims (sorted by 2016), 2013-17
Chocolate retains its popularity but coconut provides opportunities
Figure 32: NPD in the UK ice cream and desserts market, by leading flavours (sorted by 2016), 2013-17
BRAND RESEARCH
Brand map
Figure 33: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, August 2017
Key brand metrics
Figure 34: Key metrics for selected brands, August 2017
Brand attitudes: Ambrosia and Müller Rice sit apart from the other brands
Figure 35: Attitudes, by brand, August 2017
Brand personality: Häagen Dazs and Carte D’Or enjoy favourable perceptions
Figure 36: Brand personality – Macro image, August 2017
The selected ice cream brands enjoy an array of positive connotations
Figure 37: Brand personality – Micro image, August 2017
Brand analysis
Ben & Jerry’s enjoys high levels of advocacy and brand satisfaction
Figure 38: User profile of Ben & Jerry’s, August 2017
Häagen-Dazs is most likely to be seen as a premium, sophisticated brand
Figure 39: User profile of Häagen-Dazs, August 2017
Carte D’Or tries to keep up with Ben & Jerry’s and Häagen Dazs
Figure 40: User profile of Carte D’Or, August 2017
Gü’s premium credentials have scope for improvement
Figure 41: User profile of Gü, August 2017
Ambrosia is seen as comforting but not special
Figure 42: User profile of Ambrosia, August 2017
Müller Rice is seen as healthy and wholesome
Figure 43: User profile of Müller Rice, August 2017
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Ice cream and desserts continue to enjoy widespread popularity
Healthier variants key to boosting usage
High quality ingredients are the best shortcut to a premium positioning
Multibuys could help to boost the desserts market
Almost three in five category users often eat desserts for meals at home
USAGE OF ICE CREAM AND DESSERTS
Ice cream and desserts continue to enjoy widespread popularity
Figure 44: Usage of ice cream and desserts, July 2017
Ice cream enjoys the most regular usage
Figure 45: Frequency of usage of ice cream, July 2017
Desserts are not eaten as regularly as ice cream
Figure 46: Frequency of usage of desserts, July 2017
BOOSTING USAGE OF ICE CREAM AND DESSERTS
Healthier variants key to boosting usage
Figure 47: Factors which would encourage increased usage of ice cream and desserts, July 2017
Natural ingredients and reduced calories also resonate
Other factors also chime with a minority of category users
DEFINING PREMIUM ICE CREAM AND DESSERTS
High quality ingredients denote a premium positioning
Figure 48: Factors associated with premium ice cream and desserts, July 2017
Tasting the difference also key to justifying premium
Luxurious packaging is another clear premium cue
INTEREST IN DIFFERENT TYPES OF ICE CREAM AND DESSERTS
Multibuys could help to boost the desserts market
Figure 49: Interest in trying different types of ice cream and desserts, July 2017
Meal deals also offer opportunities
Consumer interest in trying new types of ice creams and desserts
Less sweet flavours can win appeal among the older generation
BEHAVIOURS RELATING TO ICE CREAM AND DESSERTS
Almost three in five category users often eat desserts for meals at home
Widespread interest in making sundaes at home
Figure 50: Behaviours relating to ice cream and desserts, July 2017
Half of users prioritise transparent packaging in desserts
Health considerations are also important
ATTITUDES TOWARDS ICE CREAM AND DESSERTS
Own-label variants widely seen as a credible alternative to brands
Smaller portions widely seen to be preferable to cutting sugar
Figure 51: Attitudes towards ice cream and desserts, July 2017
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Forecast methodology
Best and worst-case forecast data
Figure 52: Total UK retail value sales of ice cream and desserts, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
Figure 53: Total UK retail value sales of ice cream, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
Figure 54: Total UK retail volume sales of ice cream, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
Figure 55: Total UK retail value sales of desserts, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
Figure 56: Total UK retail volume sales of desserts, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
APPENDIX – MARKET SHARE
Figure 57: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK ice cream retail market, by value and volume 2014/15-2016/17
Figure 58: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK ambient desserts retail market, by value and volume 2014/15-2016/17
Figure 59: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK frozen desserts retail market, by value and volume 2014/15-2016/17

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