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Ice Cream - China - June 2017

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this Report
Figure 1: Examples of products included in each segment, China, 2017
Definition
Figure 2: Mintel’s definition of different income groups, China
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Trading up driving further retail value growth in spite of volume decline
Figure 3: Retail market value and volume of packaged ice cream, China, 2013-17
Figure 4: Best- and worst-case forecast of retail ice cream market, by value, China, 2012-22
Family occasions suggesting scope for sharing packs
Retail market facing challenge from on-trade channels
Key players
Regional brands seeking expansion nationwide
Figure 5: Leading companies’ share of retail ice cream market, China, 2015 and 2016
Ingredients of high quality with a natural note appealing to consumers
The consumer
Less consumption but more diverse occasions
Figure 6: Ice cream consumption in the last 12 months, China, March 2017
Figure 7: Change of occasion of packaged ice cream consumption, China, 2015-17
Thriving non-retail channels urge upgrade of retail products
Figure 8: Purchasing channels of ice cream in the last 12 months, China, March 2017
Better-for-you options as more popular premium features
Figure 9: Premium features of ice cream, China, March 2017
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Revival of nostalgic brands
The facts
The implications
Figure 10: Price of Zhongjie’s regular products and Zhongjie 1946’s products, China, 2013 and 2016
Figure 11: Dongbeidaban’s old-fashioned packaging, China, 2016
Figure 12: Nostalgic ice cream product using glass packaging, China, 2017
Fruit-based products as mood food for young males
The facts
The implications
Figure 13: Fruit-flavoured product claiming to use high pressure processed technology, Taiwan, 2016
Tap into family occasion with more indulgent and safer products
The facts
The implications
Figure 14: All-natural product targeting family consumption, UK, 2017
Figure 15: Products with fortified nutrition, targeting kids, Spain, 2016
Figure 16: Multipack with assorted flavours, US and Japan, 2016-17
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Declining consumption bringing down retail volume
Retail market facing challenge from on-trade channels
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Declining volume consumption due to health-consciousness
Figure 17: Retail market value and volume of packaged ice cream, china, 2013-17
Premiumisation driving growth of market value
Figure 18: Best- and worst-case forecast of retail ice cream market, by value, China, 2012-22
Figure 19: Best- and worst-case forecast of retail ice cream market, by volume, China, 2012-22
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Tub/cup pack and multipack driven by family consumption
Figure 20: Häagen-Dazs’ commercial picturing a girl enjoying a spoonful of tub pack ice cream, China, 2016
Figure 21: Best- and worst-case forecast of retail tub/cup segment, by value, China, 2012-22
Figure 22: Zhongjie 1946’s 18 pieces combo featuring eight flavours, China, 2017
Figure 23: Best- and worst-case forecast of retail multipacks segment, by value, China, 2012-22
Figure 24: Multipack of Baxy ice cream tubs with different flavours, China, 2017
Premiumisation of individually wrapped products
Figure 25: Volume share of segments, China, 2016
Figure 26: Individually wrapped premium products in carton box, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan, 2016
Figure 27: Best- and worst-case forecast of retail individually wrapped segment, by value, China, 2012-22
MARKET FACTORS
Lack of exciting launches, challenge from chilled dessert
Figure 28: Country share of ice cream new launches, China, US, Japan, Brazil, UK and India, 2014-16
Figure 29: Proportion of new launches in chilled dessert and ice cream, China, 2012-17
Change of lifestyle facilitating the growth of on-trade sales
Figure 30: Zhongjie 1946’s stores in Shanghai, applying different design styles, China, 2016
A few countries increasingly exporting ice cream to China
Figure 31: Import volume of ice cream, by country, 2015 and 2016
Figure 32: Various types of imported ice cream products from Russia on e-commercial platform, China, 2017
Figure 33: Mengniu’s Russian-style ice cream, China, 2017
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Top players fighting for maintaining edge
Ingredients of high quality with a natural note appealing to consumers
Indulgent variants urging more sophisticated approach in R&D
MARKET SHARE
Top two local players facing great challenge from foreign competitors
Figure 34: Leading companies’ share of retail ice cream market, China, 2015 and 2016
Historical brands in the North seeking expansion
Foreign brands increasing investment in China
Regional dairy enterprises stepping in
COMPETITIVE STRATEGIES
More yogurt-flavoured product innovation to borrow yogurt fans
Figure 35: Proportion of yogurt-flavoured products in ice cream and some snack categories, China, 2014-16
Figure 36: Yogurt ice cream with detailed information on its manufacturing process, China, 2016
Figure 37: Mengniu’s yogurt-flavoured ice cream products under the same brand, China, 2014 and 2016
Figure 38: McDonald’s promotion on its yogurt-flavoured cone, China, 2016
Be specific about milk source to win quality seekers
Figure 39: Proportion of milk content usage in new launches of ice cream, China, 2012-16
Figure 40: Products with detailed information on the content of raw milk, China, 2016
Less artificial colouring but no compromise on rich experience
Figure 41: Proportion of food additives and colourings usage in new launches, China, 2012-16
Figure 42: Products using beneficial emulsifier or no emulsifier, Japan and Denmark, 2016-17
Figure 43: Products using natural colours, China and South Korea, 2016-17
Lowering sugar content and using natural sweetener
Figure 44: Average sugar content of select categories, China, US, UK, Brazil and Japan, 2014-16
Figure 45: Products using natural ingredients as source of sweetness, US and Peru, 2016-17
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Multi-layered experience delivered through melting texture
Figure 46: Texture of ice cream new launches, China and Japan, 2016
Figure 47: Products claiming to have melting ingredients inside, Japan and France, 2016
Visual appeal – To enhance fruit-flavoured products
Figure 48: Proportion of new ice cream launches of select fruit flavours, global vs China, 2014-16
Figure 49: Durian ice cream emphasising the usage of Musang King durian, which is known for its high quality, China, 2017
Figure 50: Products using fruit image instead of ice cream itself, South Africa, Poland and France, 2016
Figure 51: Sherbet in real fruits in Shenzhen, China, 2016
Figure 52: Product using transparent packaging, China, US and UK, 2016-17
Adult-oriented offering to add sophistication
Alcohol flavour
Figure 53: Proportion of alcohol-flavoured ice cream among new launches, China, US, UK and Japan, 2014-16
Figure 54: Alcohol-flavoured ice cream and popsicles, China and UK, 2016-17
Coffee flavour
Figure 55: Coffee-flavoured ice cream with attractive features, UK, US and Czech Republic, 2014-17
Detox
Figure 56: Products with detoxing claims, Brazil and US, 2015-16
Customisation as in-store charm
Figure 57: Cho Collector’s ice cream menu, China, 2017
Figure 58: Bistopping in Seoul, featuring visually appealing cones, South Korea, 2015
Figure 59: Uji matcha’s ice cream menu, China, 2016
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Declining consumption urging upgraded offering
Lower price sensitivity towards ice cream for rewarding
Trading up for better-for-you versions
ICE CREAM CONSUMPTION
Drop of usage of almost all types of ice cream
Figure 60: Change of ice cream consumption, by consumer classification, China, 2015-17
Figure 61: Ice cream consumption in the last 12 months, China, March 2017
Females in their thirties and forties losing interest in ice cream
Figure 62: Ice cream consumption in the last 12 months, by type, China, March 2017
Figure 63: Ice cream consumption ranking in the last 12 months, by gender and age, China, March 2017
Figure 64: Types of ice cream consumed, China, March 2017
More ice cream fans in Beijing
Upgraded offering needed for those working in foreign enterprises
OCCASION OF CONSUMPTION
Non-packaged ice cream with social function
Figure 65: Occasion of ice cream consumption in the last 12 months, China, March 2017
Ice cream becoming more a snack and dessert at home
Figure 66: Change of occasion of packaged ice cream consumption, China, 2015-17
Figure 67: Ice cream bites, Japan, 2017
Packaged ice cream as mood food for young males
Figure 68: Ranking of different occasions of packaged ice cream, by gender and age, China, March 2017
Figure 69: Ice Cream Clinic, china, 2017
Ice cream in snack format appealing to consumers in tier one cities
PURCHASING CHANNEL
Non-retail channel’s growth explaining the decline of retail consumption
Figure 70: Purchasing channels of ice cream in the last 12 months, China, March 2017
Significant growth of online channels
Figure 71: Change of select purchasing channels of ice cream, China, 2012-17
Non-soft-serve types in fast food channels to attract young males
Figure 72: Ice cream consumption in the last 12 months, by gender and age, China, March 2017
Young females favouring dessert shop and convenience store
Figure 73: Select purchasing channels of ice cream, by gender and age, China, March 2017
Figure 74: Family Mart’s soft-serve ice cream, China, 2017
Different preference on channels among tier one cities
Figure 75: Select purchasing channels of ice cream, by city, China, March 2017
PRICE SENSITIVITY
Ice cream as mood food deserving higher price
Figure 76: Highest price one would like to pay for ice cream (weighted average), by occasion/need, China, March 2017
Females aged 20-24’s polarised attitudes towards different occasions
Figure 77: Proportion of consumers who prefer to pay less than ¥5 in select occasions, by gender and age, China, March 2017
Figure 78: Proportion of consumers who prefer to pay more than ¥20 in select occasions, by gender and age, China, March 2017
Consumers in Shanghai paying for rewarding themselves
Figure 79: Highest price one would like to pay for ice cream (weighted average price) in select occasions, by city, China, March 2017
PREMIUM FEATURES
Better-for-you options as most popular features
Figure 80: Premium features of ice cream, China, March 2017
Figure 81: Gelato brand claiming to use only pure milk and 35% of single cream, containing no trans-fat, with only half of the fat content of regular ice cream, China, 2017
Figure 82: Products with slow-melting claim, Russia and Denmark, 2016-17
Enhanced sensorial experience to be embraced by young consumers
Figure 83: Select premium features of ice cream, by age, China, March 2017
Figure 84: Chocolate-filled cone, Japan, 2016
Opting for healthy version but no compromise on enjoyment
Figure 85: Select premium features of ice cream, by city, China, March 2017
Preference of lovers of different types of ice cream
Figure 86: Cremia ice cream from KFC, claiming to have 12.5% of milk fat, China, 2016
INTEREST IN NICHE ICE CREAM TYPES 
Innovative ice cream types having their own fan groups
Figure 87: Interest in niche ice cream types, China, March 2017
Scope for sorbet and sherbet among young males
Figure 88: Interest in select niche ice cream types, by gender and age, March 2017
Figure 89: Products claiming to have real fruit juice or purée, Vietnam, South Korea, China and Japan, 2016
Unique experience attracting consumers in Chengdu
Figure 90: Consumers’ ranking of select niche types of ice cream, by city, China, March 2017
Figure 91: Products in dessert formats (cake, macaron and crepe), Germany, South Korea and Japan, 2016
MEET THE MINTROPOLITANS
MinTs more attached to ice cream
Figure 92: Ice cream consumption in the last 12 months, by consumer classification, China, March 2017
Better in-store ambience appealing to MinTs
Figure 93: Select purchasing channels of ice cream in the last 12 months, by consumer classification, China, March 2017
Figure 94: Select premium features of ice cream, by consumer classification, China, March 2017
Figure 95: Icefood’s poster in front of its store, China, 2017
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Figure 96: Value sales of China’s ice cream retail market, 2012-22
Figure 97: Volume sales of China’s ice cream retail market, 2012-22
APPENDIX – MARKET SEGMENTATION
Figure 98: Value sales of China’s ice cream retail market, by segment, 2012-22
Figure 99: Volume sales of China’s ice cream retail market, by segment, 2012-22
APPENDIX – METHODOLOGY, DEFINITION, AND ABBREVIATIONS
Methodology
Fan chart forecast
Abbreviations

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