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British Lifestyles: Preparing for Change - UK - May 2017

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Britain today
Strong GDP figures in 2016 despite Brexit vote
Employment levels ‘hit record high’
CPI begins to climb
Ageing population continues to grow
Net migration to the UK falls following Brexit vote
Britain’s most affluent get wealthier
Concerns centre on Brexit’s impact on the cost of living
Figure 1: Expected impact of UK vote to leave the EU on wider economy and personal finances, February 2017
The consumer
Balance tips towards spending less…
Figure 2: Changes in spending habits in the last 12 months, February 2017
…as consumers hang on to savvy shopping habits
Figure 3: Reasons why people spent less across all categories in 2016 (netted across all sectors), January 2016 and February 2017
83% of Brits fear price rises
Figure 4: Consumer concern about price rises, by category, February 2017
Future of NHS proves top concern
Figure 5: Level of consumer concern towards the future, February 2017
Financial security boosts happiness
Figure 6: Level of happiness or unhappiness with their everyday life, by financial situation, February 2017
Family proves leading source of happiness
Figure 7: Sources of happiness, February 2017
What we think
BRITAIN TODAY – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Strong GDP figures in 2016 despite Brexit vote
Employment levels ‘hit record high’
House prices continue to rise
CPI begins to climb
Ageing population continues to grow
Net migration to the UK falls following Brexit vote
Britain’s most affluent get wealthier
Changes in the balance of opinion
THE ECONOMY
Strong GDP figures in 2016 despite Brexit vote
Figure 8: Quarterly % change in UK GDP, Q1 2010-Q4 2016
Employment levels ‘hit record high’
Figure 9: Employment, by gender, 2011-21
Diversifying the UK workforce
House prices continue to rise
Figure 10: Average house prices, UK, 2011-17
CPI begins to climb
Figure 11: Headline CPI inflation (12-month percentage change), January 2010-March^ 2017
THE PEOPLE
Ageing population continues to grow
Figure 12: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2011-21
Baby boom stabilises
Figure 13: Trends in the number of live births, England and Wales, 2000-15
Net migration to the UK falls following Brexit vote
Figure 14: Net migration to the UK, March 2012-September 2016
Britain’s most affluent get wealthier
Figure 15: Distribution of total household wealth, Great Britain, July 2010-June 2012 and July 2012-June 2014
UK health profile starts to improve
Figure 16: Changes in perceptions of consumer health and the amount of effort people put into staying healthy, August 2016
Consumer confidence holds steady
Figure 17: The financial wellbeing index, February 2010-February 2017
Consumer expectations for the coming year
Figure 18: Consumer financial wellbeing expectations for the coming year, February 2010-February 2017
CONSUMERS’ RESPONSE TO THE EU REFERENDUM  
Concerns centre on Brexit’s impact on the cost of living
Figure 19: Expected impact of UK vote to leave the EU on wider economy and personal finances, February 2017
Affluent prove most optimistic
Figure 20: Expected impact of UK vote to leave the EU on wider economy and personal finances, by most affluent vs least affluent households, February 2017
Changes in the balance of opinion
Figure 21: Consumer views on the impact of the EU referendum on the UK economy, by household income (most vs least affluent), July 2016-February 2017
Young prove negative in outlook
Figure 22: Consumer views on the impact of the EU referendum on the UK economy, by age, July 2016-February 2017
CONSUMER EXPENDITURE – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Consumer expenditure growth undermined by FMCG markets
Outlook for the next five years
Sales fall for in-home food market
Health concerns continue to challenge non-alcoholic drinks category
Quality over quantity mindset emerges in alcoholic drinks category
BPC market nourished by premiumisation trend
Focus on leisure hampers interest in clothing
Music concerts and festivals drive leisure and entertainment sector
Brexit threatens holidays market
Positive growth forecast for personal finances market
EXPENDITURE OVERVIEW 
Consumer expenditure growth undermined by FMCG markets
Figure 23: Consumer expenditure, by sector (£billion), 2016
Outlook for the next five years
Figure 24: Best- and worst-case forecast total value sales, 2011-21
Winners in the next five years
Figure 25: Categories set to grow at a faster rate than total consumer spending projections over the next five years, at current prices, by % growth, 2016-21
Slower-growth sectors in the next five years
Figure 26: Consumer sectors set to grow at a below-average rate, at current prices, by % growth, 2016-21
IN-HOME FOOD
What we think
Market – past, present, future
Figure 27: UK in-home food market value, 2011-16
Figure 28: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the in-home food market, at current prices, 2011-21
Mintel predictions
Winners
Chilled fish/shellfish
Free-from foods
Popcorn and nuts
Losers
Pasta
Prepacked bread
Processed poultry and meat
Cooking and pasta sauces
Changing consumer habits
Figure 29: Changes in spending habits on in-home food in 2016, February 2017
Key consumer findings
Fish and shellfish
Free-from foods
Popcorn and nuts
Sweet biscuits
Cooking and pasta sauces
Pasta
Attitudes towards healthy eating
FOODSERVICE
What we think
Market – past, present, future
Figure 30: UK foodservice market value, 2011-16
Figure 31: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the foodservice market, at current prices, 2011-21
Mintel predictions
Winners
Takeaway/home delivery
Casual dining restaurants
Losers
Independent ethnic operators
Changing consumer habits
Figure 32: Changes in spending habits on eating out in 2016, February 2017
Key consumer findings
Eating out
Home delivery and takeaway food
Menu flavours
NON-ALCOHOLIC DRINKS
What we think
Market – past, present, future
Figure 33: UK non-alcoholic drinks retail market value, 2011-16
Figure 34: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the retail non-alcoholic drinks market, at current prices, 2011-21
Mintel predictions
Winners
Bottled water
Coffee pods
Fruit, herbal and speciality teas
Losers
Cordials and squashes
Tea
Changing consumer habits
Figure 35: Changes in spending habits on non-alcoholic drinks in 2016, February 2017
Key consumer findings
Bottled water
Fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies
Carbonated soft drinks
Tea
Coffee
Sports and energy drinks
ALCOHOLIC DRINKS
What we think
Market – past, present, future
Figure 36: UK alcoholic drinks retail market value, 2011-16
Figure 37: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the retail alcoholic drinks market, at current prices, 2011-21
Mintel predictions
Winners
Ale/bitter
Gin
Dark spirits and liqueurs
Losers
RTDs
White rum
Changing consumer habits
Figure 38: Changes in spending habits on alcoholic drinks in 2016, February 2017
Key consumer findings
Beer
Cider
Spirits
Wine
BEAUTY AND PERSONAL CARE
What we think
Market – past, present, future
Figure 39: UK beauty and personal care market value, 2011-16
Figure 40: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the beauty and personal care market, at current prices, 2011-21
Mintel predictions
Winners
Colour cosmetics
Men’s haircare
Losers
Shaving and hair removal
Fragrances
Changing consumer habits
Figure 41: Changes in spending habits on beauty products and toiletries in 2016, February 2017
Key consumer findings
Colour cosmetics
Men’s haircare
Shaving and hair removal
Fragrances
OTC AND PHARMACEUTICALS
What we think
Market – past, present, future
Figure 42: UK OTC and pharmaceuticals market value, 2011-16
Figure 43: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the OTC and pharmaceuticals market, at current prices, 2011-21
Mintel predictions
Winners
Feminine hygiene and sanitary protection products
Smoking cessation
OTC analgesics and cold and flu remedies
Losers
First aid
Changing consumer habits
Figure 44: Changes in spending habits on healthcare products in 2016, February 2017
Key consumer findings
Feminine hygiene and sanitary protection products
Smoking cessation and e-cigarettes
First aid
OTC analgesics and cold and flu remedies
CLOTHING, FOOTWEAR AND ACCESSORIES
What we think
Market – past, present and future
Figure 45: UK clothing, footwear and accessories market value, 2011-16
Figure 46: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the clothing and accessories market, at current prices, 2011-21
Mintel predictions
Winners
Menswear
Footwear
Sportswear
Losers
Womenswear
Handbags
Youth fashion
Changing consumer habits
Figure 47: Changes in spending habits on clothing and accessories in 2016, February 2017
Key consumer findings
Clothing retail
Womenswear
Menswear
Sportswear
HOUSEHOLD CARE
What we think
Market – past, present, future
Figure 48: UK household care market value, 2011-16
Figure 49: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the household care market, at current prices, 2011-21
Mintel predictions
Winners
Fabric care
Disinfectants
Losers
Laundry detergents
Hand dishwashing
Changing consumer habits
Figure 50: Changes in spending habits on household care products in 2016, February 2017
Key consumer findings
Cleaning in and around the home
Air care
Laundry detergents
Fabric care and other washing ancillaries
TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATIONS
What we think
Market – past, present, future
Figure 51: UK technology and communications market value, 2011-16
Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the technology and communications market, at current prices, 2011-21
Mintel predictions
Winners
Mobile apps and mobile gaming
Video games and consoles
Losers
Desktop, laptop and tablet computers
Owned video and music
Changing consumer habits
Figure 53: Changes in spending habits on technology and communications in 2016, February 2017
Key consumer findings
Desktop, laptop and tablet computers
Virtual reality
Mobile apps and games
Social media
Televisions and video media
LEISURE AND ENTERTAINMENT
What we think
Market – past, present, future
Figure 54: UK leisure and entertainment market value, 2011-16
Figure 55: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the leisure and entertainment market, at current prices, 2011-21
Mintel predictions
Winners
Music concerts and festivals
Gambling
Private health and fitness clubs
Losers
Nightclubs
Changing consumer habits
Figure 56: Changes in spending habits on leisure and entertainment in 2016, February 2017
Key consumer findings
Music concerts and festivals
Gambling
Private health and fitness clubs
Nightclubs
HOME AND GARDEN
What we think
Market – past, present, future
Figure 57: UK home and garden market value, 2011-16
Figure 58: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the home and garden market, at current prices, 2011-21
Mintel predictions
Winners
Home storage
Small kitchen appliances
Losers
Bathrooms
Garden products
Changing consumer habits
Figure 59: Changes in spending habits on home and garden products in 2016, January 2016
Key consumer findings
Furniture purchases
Bathrooms
Garden products
TRANSPORT
What we think
Market – past, present, future
Figure 60: UK transport market value, 2011-16
Figure 61: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the transport market, at current prices, 2011-21
Mintel predictions
Winners
Used car market
Alternatively fuelled cars
Motorcycles
Airlines
Losers
New car market
Diesel cars
Key consumer findings
Used cars
Alternatively fuelled cars
New car market
Diesel cars
Airlines
HOLIDAYS
What we think
Market – past, present, future
Figure 62: UK holidays market value, 2011-16
Figure 63: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the holidays market, at current prices, 2011-21
Mintel predictions
Winners
European holidays – trips to Spain, Greece, Italy and Portugal
All-inclusive deals, package holidays
Losers
North Africa, Egypt, Turkey
Changing consumer habits
Figure 64: Changes in spending habits on holidays in 2016, February 2017
Key consumer findings
Brexit shapes consumers’ unwavering demand for a holiday
PERSONAL FINANCE
What we think
Market – past, present, future
Figure 65: UK personal finance market value, 2011-16
Figure 66: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the personal finance market, at current prices, 2011-21
Mintel predictions
Winners
Consumer credit
New and alternative saving channels
Losers
Investments
Motor insurers
Changing consumer habits
Aggregation and recommendation
Data sharing in insurance
Key consumer findings
Consumers and credit risk
Consumers and retail banking
Retirement planning
HOUSING 
What we think
Market – past, present, future
Figure 67: UK housing market value, 2011-16
Figure 68: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the housing market, at current prices, 2011-21
Changing consumer habits
Key consumer findings
Mortgages
Buy-to-let mortgages
NEWSAGENTS’ GOODS
What we think
Market – past, present, future
Greetings cards
Cigarettes
Figure 69: UK newsagents’ goods market value, 2011-16
Figure 70: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the newsagents’ goods market, at current prices, 2011-21
Key consumer findings
Greetings cards
Cigarettes
MISCELLANEOUS EXPENDITURE
What we think
Market – past, present, future
Figure 71: UK miscellaneous expenditure market value, 2011-16
Figure 72: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the miscellaneous expenditure market, at current prices, 2011-21
Winners
Private healthcare
Education
Losers
Disposable nappies and wipes
Key consumer findings
Disposable nappies and wipes
Private healthcare
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Consumer spending habits hold steady…
…as they hang on to savvy shopping habits
The perception of spending more on food
Fewer consumers benefit from low prices
83% of Brits fear price rises
The rising cost of holidays
Could the falling Pound spell the end of disposable fashion?
Future of NHS proves top concern
The importance of pro-environmental efforts
Financial security boosts happiness
Family proves leading source of happiness
CHANGES IN SPENDING HABITS
Consumer spending habits hold steady
Figure 73: Changes in spending habits in the last 12 months, February 2017
Are consumers really spending less on alcohol...
Figure 74: Difference between proportions of people spending more and less, January 2016 and February 2017
…but spending more on food?
Young BPC shoppers go budget
Figure 75: Proportion of adults spending less on BPC products and toiletries, by age, January 2016 and February 2017
REASONS WHY PEOPLE SPENT LESS
70% cut back to make savings
Figure 76: Reasons why people spent less across all categories in 2016 (netted across all sectors), January 2016 and February 2017
Younger shoppers shop around for best deal
Figure 77: Reasons why people spent less across all categories in 2016 (netted across all sectors), by age, February 2017
Beauty buyers bag a bargain
Figure 78: Reasons why people spent less in 2016, by category, February 2017
Fewer consumers benefit from low prices
Figure 79: Proportion of consumers who spent less due to a decrease in prices, by category, January 2016 vs February 2017
CONSUMERS’ EXPECTATIONS OF PRICE RISES
83% of Brits fear price rises
Figure 80: Consumer concern about price rises, by category, February 2017
Food leads price rise concerns
The rising cost of holidays
Figure 81: Proportion of consumers indicating concern over the rising cost of holiday travel, by age, February 2017
Could the falling Pound spell the end of disposable fashion?
CONCERNS FOR THE FUTURE 
Future of NHS proves top concern
Figure 82: Level of consumer concern towards the future, February 2017
Tapping into the broader concerns about health
Figure 83: This Girl Can campaign, February 2017
The importance of pro-environmental efforts
Figure 84: Tesco No Time for Waste campaign, March 2017
Young prove most concerned for the future
Figure 85: Repertoire of consumer concerns for the future, by age, February 2017
Concerns by household income
Figure 86: Level of consumer concerns towards the future, by household income, February 2017
SOURCES OF HAPPINESS 
Financial security boosts happiness
Figure 87: Level of happiness or unhappiness with their everyday life, by financial situation, February 2017
Brits prove happy in their homes
Figure 88: Level of happiness or unhappiness with current housing situation, February 2017
Gender pay gap impacts women’s fiscal confidence
Figure 89: Level of happiness or unhappiness with finances, February 2017
Family proves chief source of happiness
Figure 90: Sources of happiness, February 2017
Figure 91: Asda Good Living Publication, family exercise campaign, January 2017
Tackling the loneliness epidemic
Figure 92: Friends and family as sources of happiness, by age, February 2017
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Methodology
Abbreviations
Definitions
Generations
APPENDIX – IN-HOME FOOD
Figure 93: UK retail value sales of in-home food, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
APPENDIX – FOODSERVICE
Figure 94: UK retail value sales of foodservice, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
APPENDIX – NON-ALCOHOLIC DRINKS
Figure 95: UK retail value sales of non-alcoholic drinks, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
APPENDIX – ALCOHOLIC DRINKS (FOR IN-HOME CONSUMPTION)
Figure 96: UK retail value sales of alcoholic drinks (for in-home consumption), at current and constant prices, 2011-21
APPENDIX – BEAUTY AND PERSONAL CARE
Figure 97: UK retail value sales of beauty and personal care products, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
APPENDIX – OTC AND HEALTHCARE
Figure 98: UK retail value sales of OTC and healthcare products, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
APPENDIX – CLOTHING AND ACCESSORIES
Figure 99: UK retail value sales of clothing and accessories, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
APPENDIX – HOUSEHOLD CARE
Figure 100: UK retail value sales of household care products, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
APPENDIX – TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATION
Figure 101: UK retail value sales of technology and communication products, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
APPENDIX – LEISURE AND ENTERTAINMENT
Figure 102: UK retail value sales for leisure and entertainment category, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
APPENDIX – HOME AND GARDEN
Figure 103: UK retail value sales for home and garden products, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
APPENDIX – TRANSPORT
Figure 104: UK transport market, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
APPENDIX – HOLIDAYS 
Figure 105: UK holidays market, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
APPENDIX – PERSONAL FINANCES
Figure 106: UK retail value sales of personal finances products, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
APPENDIX – HOUSING 
Figure 107: UK housing market, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
APPENDIX – NEWSAGENTS’ GOODS
Figure 108: UK retail value sales of newsagents’ goods, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
APPENDIX – MISCELLANEOUS EXPENDITURE
Figure 109: Miscellaneous expenditure, at current and constant prices, 2011-21

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