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Crackers - US - March 2016

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Sales reach $7.7 billion in 2015
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of crackers, at current prices, 2010-20
Crackers are a household staple
Figure 2: Cracker purchase, Any purchase, November 2015
Consumers view crackers as a healthy snack
Figure 3: Important nutritional attributes, November 2015
The opportunities
Explore ingredient and flavor innovation
Figure 4: Crackers innovation areas – flavors, November 2015
Figure 5: Crackers innovation areas – ingredients, November 2015
Promote use in recipes
Figure 6: Correspondence Analysis – Cracker use, November 2015
Room for packaging and ingredient improvements
Figure 7: Attitudes about crackers – Any Agree, November 2015
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Cracker sales reach $7.7 billion in 2015
All other crackers segment drives sales
Interest in snacking helps and hurts category
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Cracker sales grow 17% from 2010-15
Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of crackers, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of crackers, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of crackers, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
MARKET BREAKDOWN
All other crackers represent nearly three quarters of category
Figure 11: Total US retail sales of crackers, by segment share, 2015
Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of crackers, by segment, at current prices, 2010-15
More than half of cracker sales from supermarkets
Figure 13: Total US retail sales of crackers, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
Nearly all cracker segments grow within natural channels
Figure 14: Natural supermarket sales of crackers, by category, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Nov. 3, 2013 and Nov. 1, 2015
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Consumers eating a variety of snacks
MARKET FACTORS
Interest in snacking grows
Figure 15: Attitudes and opinions about food, July 2009-September 2015
Figure 16: Attitudes and opinions about food, July 2009-September 2015
Core user groups growing
Figure 17: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
Figure 18: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Three companies represent three quarters of category sales
Strongest growth among other, smaller brands
Simple ingredients and marketing works
Cracker bases, free-from claims expanding
MANUFACTURER SALES OF CRACKERS
Mondelēz maintains category lead, strongest growth among other brands
Manufacturer sales of crackers
Figure 19: MULO sales of crackers, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
WHAT’S WORKING?
Simple and Wholesome
Figure 20: TV ad, The simple magic of honey with Savannah Bee Company - Makers of More - Triscuit, June 2015
Figure 21: MULO sales of Mondelēz International Inc. other crackers
Figure 22: TV ad, Life’s Rich, April 2015
Figure 23: MULO sales of Nabisco graham crackers
Figure 24: TV ad, Honey Maid “This Is Wholesome” 2015 Introducing GoBites, January 2015
New products and dayparts
Figure 25: MULO sales of Snyder’s-Lance Lance crackers with fillings
Figure 26: MULO sales of Snyder’s-Lance’s other crackers
Figure 27: MULO sales of PepsiCo Inc. Rold Gold crackers with fillings
Figure 28: MULO sales of Kellogg Co. Sunshine other crackers
Figure 29: MULO sales of Campbell Soup Co. Pepperidge Farm other crackers
Figure 30: TV ad, Goldfish on a Snow Day, November 2015
Packaged for convenience
Figure 31: MULO sales of Ferrero USA Inc. Ferrero crackers with fillings
Figure 32: MULO sales of Jif To Go crackers with fillings
Figure 33: MULO sales of Mondelēz International Inc.’s Ritz Fresh Stacks other crackers
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Special K struggles to grow
Figure 34: MULO sales of Kellogg Co. Special K other crackers
Not all brand extensions perform well
Figure 35: MULO sales of Campbell Soup Co. Pepperidge Farm graham crackers
Tired brands may need a refresh
Figure 36: MULO sales of Kellogg Co. saltine crackers
Figure 37: MULO sales of Mondelēz International Inc. Handi-Snacks crackers with fillings
Private label crackers lack appeal
Figure 38: MULO sales of private label crackers
WHAT’S NEXT?
The real deal
Free-from growth continues
Figure 39: Cracker product launches, by top 15 claims, 2011-15*
Alternative bases
Less is more
Figure 40: TV ad, Even Thinner Wheat Thins Limited Edition Launch, December 2015
International flavor influences
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Crackers are a household staple
Consumers open to flavor and ingredient innovation
Crackers viewed as a healthy snack, but room for packaging, ingredient improvements
CRACKER PURCHASE
93% of households purchase crackers
Figure 41: Cracker purchase, Any purchase, November 2015
Figure 42: Cracker purchase, November 2015
Purchase skews toward 18-34s
Figure 43: Cracker purchase, Any purchase, by age, November 2015
Significantly higher purchase among parents
Figure 44: Cracker purchase, Any purchase, by parental status, November 2015
Hispanics more likely to purchase all cracker types
Figure 45: Cracker purchase, Any purchase, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2015
CRACKER USE
Opportunity to increase cracker use in recipes
Figure 46: Correspondence Analysis – Cracker use, November 2015
Figure 47: Cracker use, November 2015
IMPORTANT NUTRITIONAL ATTRIBUTES
Fiber important, yet nearly one quarter uninterested in nutritional claims
Figure 48: Important nutritional attributes, November 2015
Figure 49: Natural supermarket sales of crackers, by "natural" labeling or perception, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Nov. 3, 2013 and Nov. 1, 2015
Nutritional attributes more appealing with indulgent flavors
Figure 50: Select important nutritional attributes, by select crackers innovation areas - flavors, November 2015
Interest in alternative cracker bases with natural ingredients, functionality
Figure 51: Select important nutritional attributes, by select crackers innovation areas - ingredients, November 2015
Millennials interested in functionality, Non-Millennials want free-from claims
Figure 52: Important nutritional attributes, by Millennials and Non-Millennials, November 2015
Hispanic and Black consumers interested in high fiber, protein
Figure 53: Important nutritional attributes, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2015
INNOVATION AREAS
Opportunity for sweeter flavors, alternate bases
Figure 54: Crackers innovation areas – flavors, November 2015
Figure 55: Crackers innovation areas – ingredients, November 2015
Parents more interested in flavor, ingredient innovation
Figure 56: Crackers innovation areas – flavors, by parental status, November 2015
Figure 57: Crackers innovation areas – ingredients, by parental status, November 2015
Millennials more interested in all flavor innovation areas
Figure 58: Crackers innovation areas – flavors, by Millennials and Non-Millennials, November 2015
Figure 59: Crackers innovation areas – ingredients, by Millennials and Non-Millennials, November 2015
Non-White, Hispanic consumers want savory, spicy flavors
Figure 60: Crackers innovation areas – flavors, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2015
Figure 61: Crackers innovation areas – ingredients, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2015
BEHAVIORS RELATED TO CRACKERS
Crackers more likely to be a solo snack
Figure 62: Behaviors related to crackers – purchase and use, November 2015
Parents buy on impulse, spend more when entertaining
Figure 63: Behaviors related to crackers - purchase, by parental status, November 2015
Older consumers more creative with their cracker use
Figure 64: Behaviors related to crackers - use, by age, November 2015
Opportunity to expand breakfast consumption among Hispanics
Figure 65: Select behaviors related to crackers – purchase and use, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2015
ATTITUDES ABOUT CRACKERS
Simple ingredients most important
Figure 66: Attitudes about crackers – Any Agree, November 2015
Millennials more adventurous with flavor
Figure 67: Attitudes about crackers – Flavor – Any Agree, by Millennials and Non-Millennials, November 2015
Parents view crackers as healthy, but room to improve ingredients
Figure 68: Attitudes about crackers – Brand and Health – Any Agree, by parental status, November 2015
Hispanics most price sensitive
Figure 69: Attitudes about crackers – Areas for Improvement – Any Agree, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2015
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – CORRESPONDENCE ANALYSIS
Methodology
APPENDIX – MARKET
Market breakdown
Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of crackers, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 71: Total US retail sales of crackers, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Figure 72: Total US retail sales and forecast of crackers with fillings, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 73: Total US retail sales and forecast of graham crackers, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 74: Total US retail sales and forecast of saltine crackers, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 75: Total US retail sales and forecast of all other crackers, at current prices, 2010-20
Retail channels
Figure 76: Total US retail sales of crackers, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Figure 77: US supermarket sales of crackers, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 78: US sales of crackers through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
Natural channels
Figure 79: Natural supermarket sales of crackers, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks Nov. 3, 2013-Nov. 1, 2015
Figure 80: Natural supermarket sales of crackers, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Nov. 3, 2013 and Nov. 1, 2015
Figure 81: Organic share of natural supermarket sales of crackers, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Nov. 3, 2013 and Nov. 1, 2015
Figure 82: Natural supermarket sales of crackers, by gluten-free labeling/certification, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Nov. 3, 2013 and Nov. 1, 2015
Figure 83: Gluten-free* share of natural supermarket sales of crackers, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Nov. 3, 2013 and Nov. 1, 2015
Figure 84: Natural supermarket sales of crackers, by GMO ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Nov. 3, 2013 and Nov. 1, 2015
Figure 85: Natural supermarket sales of crackers, by whole grain council certification, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Nov. 3, 2013 and Nov. 1, 2015
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS
Figure 86: MULO sales of crackers with fillings, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 87: MULO sales of graham crackers, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 88: MULO sales of saltine crackers, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 89: MULO sales of all other crackers, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015

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