Consumers and the Economic Outlook: Quarterly Update - UK - December 2015
Key Findings 
 
“Mintel’s key measures of consumer confidence show that people are still wary. Although the improvements in sentiment that accompanied the end of the income squeeze have been sustained, 2015 has been a year of consolidation, rather than one of soaring consumer spirits. Earlier in the year, the election added considerable uncertainty. Post-election, the promise of more austerity and the continued squeeze on the public sector will have contributed to a degree of caution among mainstream consumers.

However, there is still good news out there for marketers. In particular, higher earners continue to prosper, and appear to be pulling even further away from their less well-paid counterparts. Even more promisingly, this is accompanied by a growing willingness to spend on luxuries. From foodservice to travel, it’s going to be people at the upper end of the income scale who will drive spend in 2016.” 
-Toby Clark, Director of Research, EMEA

2015: a year of consolidation
●	The economy is in relatively good shape, and this is feeding through into consumers’ wallets. House prices are rising, inflation is low, and wages are steadily increasing. The improvement in consumer confidence, however, has stalled. People are much more positive than they were a few years ago, but the legacy of the slowdown is still putting a brake on sentiment.
●	24% of the population say that their finances are healthy, and 26% say that they’ve improved over the last year. But there is still a sizeable proportion of the population who are still finding things difficult. 22% say that they’re only just making ends meet, and 22% feel that their finances have got worse since this time in 2014.
●	There are encouraging signs, though. Spending intentions reflect Mintel’s generally positive predictions for the festive period. Importantly, people seem prepared to spend on more frivolous items. Clothes and eating out were high on people’s priorities, at the expense of more “grown up” spending categories, such as home improvements.

Is it time to move away from “craft”?
●	Although people are still conservative, and wary of over-spending, Mintel is picking up some signs of a shift in the consumer mood. The last five years have been characterised by an emphasis on craft, and artisan produce. People have steered away from bling and conspicuous consumption, and have instead concentrated on artisan produce and a more thoughtful approach to consumerism.
●	It may be that the pendulum is swinging back towards a more light-hearted approach to spending. From fashion to food to home decor, there are examples of a more exuberant aesthetic coming through. As consumer confidence increases and the savvy shopping mentality starts to fade, this new approach is likely to come to the fore. 
●	Although people still express a strong preference for high quality, individual products, there’s still room to take a more lighthearted approach to the way that these values are communicated to customers: a move away from beards, Scandi design and what can often come across as a slightly over-earnest, worthy take on consumerism.

Higher-income consumers will lead the way
●	The shift in mood is most obvious among higher income consumers. People with a household income of at least £50,000 a year are still powering ahead. They are far more positive about their current financial situation, much more likely to say that it has improved over the last year, and they’re much more optimistic about how their finances will change over the coming year.
●	This is reflected in their spending priorities. Spending is higher across every category measured by Mintel, but the difference is particularly stark when it comes to luxury and indulgent spending. The recovery started early for higher earners, and they’re clearly feeling more able to spend on holidays, cars and eating out than they were a few years ago. 

Key economic indicators
FIGURE 1: Key Economic Indicators, December 2015
 
	Period 	Value 	
Annual GDP growth 	Year to Q3 2015 	+2.3%	
Unemployment rate 	Aug-15	5.3%	
CPI	Oct-15	-0.1%	
Annual change in average weekly earnings (excluding bonuses) 	Sep-15	+2.5%	
Bank of England Base Rate 	Nov-15	0.5%	
Annual change in house prices (Land Registry) 	Oct-15	+5.6%	
Retail sales (including fuel)	Oct-15	+0.5%	

Source: Office for National Statistics, Bank of England, Land Registry