Fruit Juice, Juice Drinks and Smoothies - UK - November 2015

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Covered in this report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Sales continue to fall
Figure 1: Forecast of UK sales of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by value, 2010-20
Slight value growth predicted over 2015-20
Fruit juice struggling, juice drinks in better health
Sugar attracts negative attention
Rising incomes should help to support sales
Companies and brands
Fruit juice brands see sales fall in line with segment
Juice drink leader Ribena sees sales fall, in contrast to category growth
Smoothie leader Innocent dominates adspend
Increase in low/no/reduced sugar variants in 2015 following media attention
Innocent stands out as a brand
The consumer
Fruit juice is drunk by almost three in four UK adults
Figure 2: Usage of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by frequency, September 2015
Fruit juice is seen as better for you by nearly three in four
Figure 3: Attitudes towards fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, September 2015
Steps to reduce sugar top enticements
Figure 4: Interest in selected fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies enticements, September 2015
Sugar is top reason for cutting back/not buying fruit juice/smoothies
Figure 5: Reasons for buying less or not buying fruit juice/smoothies, September 2015
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
NPD looks to tackle consumer concerns on sugar
The facts
The implications
Added value drinks such as vegetable blends and cold-pressed juice can boost the market
The facts
The implications
Catering to the children’s market could prove lucrative for the future
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Sales continue to fall
Slight value growth predicted over 2015-20
Fruit juice struggling, juice drinks in better health
Sugar attracts negative attention
Rising incomes should help to support sales
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Market continues to suffer in the wake of sugar scare
Figure 6: UK value and volume sales of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, 2010-20
Forecast
Figure 7: Forecast of UK sales of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by value, 2010-20
Figure 8: Forecast of UK sales of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by volume, 2010-20
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Fruit juice sees ongoing decline
Figure 9: UK value and volume sales fruit juice, 2010-20
Figure 10: Forecast of UK sales of fruit juice, by value, 2010-20
Juice drinks see continued growth
Figure 11: UK value and volume sales of juice drinks, 2010-20
Figure 12: Forecast of UK sales of juice drinks, by value, 2010-20
Rising prices prop up smoothie sales
Figure 13: UK value and volume sales of smoothies, 2010-20
Figure 14: Forecast of UK sales of smoothies, by value, 2010-20
MARKET DRIVERS
Sugar debate continues to impact the market
Ongoing opportunity for the category to push fruit/veg content
Figure 15: Agreement with the statement ‘I eat 5 portions of fruit/vegetables every day’, March 2012-August 2015
Rising incomes should benefit the market
Figure 16: Trends in consumers’ current financial situation compared to a year ago, net of “better off” and “worse off”, July 2011-Sept 2015
The rise in number of children should provide a boost
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Fruit juice brands see sales fall in line with segment
Juice drink leader Ribena sees sales fall, in contrast to category growth
Smoothie leader Innocent dominates adspend
Increase in low/no/reduced sugar variants in 2015 following media attention
Innocent stands out as a brand
MARKET SHARE
Fruit juice brands see sales fall in struggling segment
Figure 17: UK retail sales of leading brands in the fruit juice market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
Figure 18: UK retail sales of leading manufacturers in the fruit juice market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
Juice drink leader Ribena sees sales fall, in contrast to category growth
Figure 19: UK retail sales of leading brands in the juice drinks market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
Figure 20: UK retail sales of leading manufacturers in the juice drinks market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
Innocent dominates smoothies, despite sales fall
Figure 21: UK retail sales of leading brands in the smoothies market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies lead soft drinks innovation in 2015
Figure 22: New product launches in the UK soft drinks market, by category, 2011-15
Increase in low/no/reduced sugar variants in 2015 following media attention
Figure 23: New product launches in the UK fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies market, with a low/no/reduced sugar claim, 2011-15
Stevia provides a way to reduce sugar and calorie content
Vegetable blends offer a health halo
Figure 24: New product launches in the UK fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies market containing vegetables listed as an ingredient, 2011-15
Juice drinks continue to explore fortification
Cold-pressed continues to be referenced
Figure 25: New product launches in the UK fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies market that are described as ‘cold-pressed’ on-pack, 2011-15
Smoothies look to use coconut milk as an ingredient
BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Advertisers continue to cut back
Figure 26: Total above-the-line advertising expenditure in the UK fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies market, 2012-15
Innocent leads on spend
Suntory steps up support for Ribena
Oasis hopes to attract the teen market with honesty
Figure 27: Total above-the-line advertising expenditure in the UK fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies market, by top 10 advertisers (sorted by 2014), 2012-15
Nielsen Media Research coverage
BRAND RESEARCH – FRUIT JUICE, JUICE DRINKS AND SMOOTHIES
What you need to know
Brand map
Figure 28: Attitudes towards and usage of selected drink brands, September 2015
Key brand metrics
Figure 29: Key metrics for selected drink brands, September 2015
Brand attitudes: Youthful brands associated with value
Figure 30: Attitudes, by drink brand, September 2015
Brand personality: Innocent’s product and price earn a more exclusive image
Figure 31: Brand personality – Macro image, September 2015
Tropicana has advantage on taste, Ribena on heritage
Figure 32: Brand personality – Micro image, September 2015
Brand analysis
Innocent stands out from the crowd and enjoys innovative, ethical image
Figure 33: User profile of Innocent, September 2015
Tropicana more likely to be described as delicious and refreshing
Figure 34: User profile of Tropicana, September 2015
Ribena is a trusted brand, helped by reputation and history
Figure 35: User profile of Ribena, September 2015
Robinsons Fruit Shoot has lower usage than all brands but higher trust than Capri-Sun
Figure 36: User profile of Robinsons Fruit Shoot, September 2015
Oasis lacks standout but has positive scores for experience-based attributes
Figure 37: User profile of Oasis, September 2015
Capri-Sun struggles to engage with older groups
Figure 38: User profile of Capri-Sun, September 2015
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Fruit juice is drunk by almost three in four UK adults
Almost half drink fruit juice once a week or more
Fruit juice is seen as better for you by nearly three in four
Fruit and vegetable blends for children and fair trade ingredients appeal
Steps to reduce sugar top enticements
Sugar is top reason for cutting back/not buying fruit juice/smoothies
USAGE OF FRUIT JUICE, JUICE DRINKS AND SMOOTHIES
Fruit juice is the most popular, drunk by almost three in four UK adults
Figure 39: Usage of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, September 2015
Four in 10 drink 100% fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies
Figure 40: Crossover in usage of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, September 2015
Almost half drink fruit juice once a week or more
Figure 41: Usage of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by frequency, September 2015
Fruit juice from concentrate is the most popular format
Figure 42: Types of fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies drunk, September 2015
Just over a quarter have drunk home-made juice/smoothies
Freshly made in front of you
Figure 43: Usage of fruit juice/smoothies freshly made in front of you, September 2015
Freshly made by yourself
Figure 44: Usage of fruit juice/smoothies freshly made by yourself, September 2015
ATTITUDES TOWARDS FRUIT JUICE, JUICE DRINKS AND SMOOTHIES
Nearly three in four users see fruit juice as healthier than CSDs
Figure 45: Attitudes towards fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies, September 2015
Catering to children’s market would be well received
Untapped interest in fair trade ingredients …
… and British ingredients
FRUIT JUICE, JUICE DRINKS AND SMOOTHIES ENTICEMENTS
Reduced sugar tops enticements
Figure 46: Interest in selected fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies enticements, September 2015
Cold-pressed varieties appeal to a third
Opportunities for more interesting ingredients
BUYING HABITS OF FRUIT JUICE AND SMOOTHIES
The majority are buying the same amount as six months ago
Figure 47: Changes in purchase patterns of fruit juice/smoothies over the last six months, September 2015
Healthier options drive those buying more
More than a third have switched from other soft drinks
Figure 48: Reasons for buying more fruit juice/smoothies, September 2015
Concern over sugar content is the top reason for not buying/buying less
Cost is still an issue for 24%
Figure 49: Reasons for buying less or not buying fruit juice/smoothies, September 2015
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Fan chart forecast
APPENDIX – MARKET DRIVERS
Figure 50: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2010-20
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST AND SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Figure 51: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total UK fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies market, by value, 2015-20
Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total UK fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies market, by volume, 2015-20
Figure 53: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK fruit juice market, by value, 2015-20
Figure 54: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK fruit juice market, by volume, 2015-20
Figure 55: Forecast of UK retail sales of fruit juice, by volume, 2010-20
Figure 56: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK juice drinks market, by value, 2015-20
Figure 57: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK juice drinks market, by volume, 2015-20
Figure 58: Forecast of UK retail sales of juice drinks, by volume, 2010-20
Figure 59: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK smoothies market, by value, 2015-20
Figure 60: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK smoothies market, by volume, 2015-20
Figure 61: Forecast of UK retail sales of smoothies, by volume, 2010-20