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Cruises - US - October 2015

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Frequent cruisers dominate the market; brands struggle to recruit new cruisers
Figure 1: Past three-year cruise incidence and mean number of cruises, 2008-15
Safety concerns linger among younger cruisers
Figure 2: Attitudes toward cruising – Safety, by age, June 2015
The tyranny of increasing expectations
Figure 3: The cruising experience – Onboard activities, by contemporary/premium lines and brands, June 2015
Despite added capacity, ships go out full
Figure 4: New North American cruise ship capacity, new berths by year, 2011-18
The opportunities
New travel patterns offer access to new cruisers
Figure 5: Primary reason for most recent cruise, by contemporary/premium lines, June 2015
Getting non-cruisers to see the value proposition
Figure 6: Attitudes toward cruising – Value, by cruisers/non-cruisers, June 2015
Better use of technology key to long-term growth
Figure 7: The cruising experience – Mobile and social, by contemporary/premium lines and brands, June 2015
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Cruise market booming
Caribbean still king but rivers see fastest growth
Despite added capacity, ships go out full
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
North American cruisers’ expenditures to double from 2010-20
Figure 8: Total sales and fan chart forecast of cruise expenditures by passengers originating in North America, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 9: Total sales and forecast of cruise expenditures by passengers originating in North America, at current prices, 2010-20
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Bahamas number one destination, and growing
Figure 10: Areas cruised in the last three years, 2015 vs 2008
River and specialty cruises growing fast, gaining market share
Longer cruises mean higher fares
Figure 11: Breakdown of average cruise spending, 2010-15
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Cruise spending outpaces total leisure spending
Frequent cruisers boost US market
Figure 12: Past three-year cruise incidence and mean number of cruises, 2008-15
Ships go out full . . .
. . . and keep getting bigger
Per-cruise spending by US cruisers trending stabilizing
Figure 13: Amount spent per person on most recent cruise, 2008-15
MARKET FACTORS
Cruise lines shift resources to Asia
Figure 14: International tourism expenditures by five highest-spending countries, 2013-14
Continued strong growth in 55+ population
Figure 15: US population by age, 2010-20
Growth of high-income population
Figure 16: Share of US households with income $150K+, 2008-14
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Carnival still dominant, but Norwegian growing share
Industry struggles to attract new cruisers
Future of cruises includes better technology and dynamic pricing
PROFILE OF LEADING CRUISE BRANDS
Leading contemporary brands
Carnival Cruise Line
Royal Caribbean International
Norwegian Cruise Line
Leading premium brands
Princess Cruises
Holland America Line
Celebrity Cruises
Leading specialty cruise line
Disney Cruise Line
Norwegian sees growing penetration
Figure 17: Cruise lines used in the last three years, 2015 vs 2008
WHAT’S WORKING?
Ships continue to add novel features
Themed cruises help brands to attract new cruisers
River cruises continue to grow in popularity
Cruises to festivals and events
Brand partnerships thrive
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Brands work to acquire new cruisers
Health and safety concerns linger
WHAT’S NEXT?
More attention to large and small travel parties
Themed cruises aimed at Boomers and Millennials
More tinkering with pricing
More brands fully embrace technology
Small ships stage a comeback
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Contemporary lines dominant
Despite skewing older, cruisers are active vacationers
Safety concerns linger, but value a bigger concern
New travel patterns and increasing expectations challenge cruise lines
PAST CRUISING EXPERIENCE
Carnival and Royal Caribbean dominant brands
Figure 18: Past cruising experience, by cruise line, June 2015
Figure 19: Past cruising experience, June 2015
Carnival leads in diversity
Figure 20: Past five-year cruising experience, by cruise line, race, and Hispanic origin, June 2015
PROFILE OF CRUISERS
Seniors, high-income groups, Blacks, and Asians most likely to cruise
Figure 21: Profile of cruisers, by age, household income, race, and Hispanic origin, February 2014-March 2015
Life changes and cruising go together
Figure 22: Profile of cruisers, by recent life events, February 2014-March 2015
CRUISE LINE MOST RECENTLY USED
Contemporary lines capture 62% of most recent cruises
Figure 23: Cruise line most recently used, June 2015
Royal Caribbean customers more likely to cruise again
Figure 24: Plans to cruise in the next 12 months, by sole cruise line used in the last three years, February 2014-March 2015
Carnival and Disney lead with young adults
Figure 25: Cruise line most recently used, by age and household income, June 2015
Married couples without kids favor premium lines
Figure 26: Cruise line most recently used, by marital status and presence of children in household, June 2015
Black consumers flock to Carnival
Figure 27: Cruise line most recently used, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2015
MOST RECENT CRUISE DESTINATION AND DESTINATIONS OF INTEREST
Cruisers dream of Hawaii but visit the Bahamas
Figure 28: Most recent cruise destination, by cruise destinations of interest, June 2015
Cruisers favor destinations they have visited recently
Figure 29: Cruise destinations of interest, by most recent cruise destination, June 2015
Young adults favor nearby destinations
Figure 30: Most recent cruise destination, by age, June 2015
Interest in cruising peaks among 35-54s
Figure 31: Cruise destinations of interest, by age, June 2015
Bahamas hold appeal for all income groups
Figure 32: Most recent cruise destination, by household income, June 2015
BRAND ATTRIBUTES
Royal Caribbean and Disney most admired brands
Figure 33: Cruise lines – Positive brand attributes, June 2015
Disney’s prices discourage some
Figure 34: Cruise lines – Negative brand attributes, June 2015
Seniors value brands for quality and reliability
Figure 35: Cruise lines positive brand association, by age, June 2015
English-dominant Hispanics enthusiastic about cruise brands
Figure 36: Cruise lines positive brand associations, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2015
PRIMARY REASON FOR MOST RECENT CRUISE
Group and solo travel increasingly important
Multigenerational travel a growing segment
Solo travel gaining acceptance
Figure 37: Primary reason for most recent cruise, by contemporary/premium lines, June 2015
Group and solo travel offers brands exposure to younger cruisers
Figure 38: Primary reason for most recent cruise, by age, June 2015
More Hispanic cruisers travel solo or with corporate groups
Figure 39: Primary reason for most recent cruise, by Hispanic origin, June 2015
Both single and married cruisers travel without family
Figure 40: Primary reason for most recent cruise, by marital status and presence of children in household, June 2015
THE CRUISING EXPERIENCE – ONBOARD AMENITIES
Premium line cruisers more satisfied
Figure 41: The cruising experience – Onboard amenities, by contemporary/premium lines and brands, June 2015
Recent cruisers want more activities from Disney and Carnival
Figure 42: The cruising experience – Onboard activities, by contemporary/premium lines and brands, June 2015
Seniors happy with dining and entertainment
Figure 43: The cruising experience – Onboard activities, by age, June 2015
Hispanics not content to relax in a deck chair
Figure 44: The cruising experience – Onboard activities, by Hispanic origin, June 2015
Couples without children most satisfied with cruises
Figure 45: The cruising experience – Onboard activities, by marital status and presence of children, June 2015
THE CRUISING EXPERIENCE – PLANNING AND BOOKING
Travel agents still important to cruise industry
Figure 46: The cruising experience – Planning and booking, by contemporary/premium lines and brands, June 2015
Travel agents have influence with 55+ cruisers
Figure 47: The cruising experience – Planning and booking, by age, June 2015
More Hispanics book at the last minute
Figure 48: The cruising experience – Planning and booking, by Hispanic origin, June 2015
THE CRUISING EXPERIENCE – MOBILE AND SOCIAL
Disney leading in social media engagement
Figure 49: The cruising experience – Mobile and social, by contemporary/premium lines and brands, June 2015
Men most interested in cruise line apps
Figure 50: The cruising experience – Mobile and social, by gender and age, June 2015
Hispanics engage via social media
Figure 51: The cruising experience – Mobile and social, by Hispanic origin, June 2015
ATTITUDES TOWARD CRUISING – VALUE
Cruises provide better value
Figure 52: Attitudes toward cruising – Value, by cruisers/non-cruisers, June 2015
Younger cruisers see value but hate hidden costs
Figure 53: Attitudes toward cruising – Value, by age, June 2015
Dads find good deals on cruises
Figure 54: Attitudes toward cruising – Value, by parental status by gender, June 2015
Hispanics likely to share good deals
Figure 55: Attitudes toward cruising – Value, by Hispanic origin, June 2015
ATTITUDES TOWARD CRUISING – SAFETY
Safety and hygiene concerns linger
Figure 56: Attitudes toward cruising – Safety, by cruisers/non-cruisers, June 2015
Safety fears plague younger cruisers
Figure 57: Attitudes toward cruising – Safety, by age, June 2015
Cruise lines can reassure parents that safety is a priority
Figure 58: Attitudes toward cruising – Safety, by gender and parental status, June 2015
Hispanics worry about safety
Figure 59: Attitudes toward cruising – Value, by Hispanic origin, June 2015
ATTITUDES TOWARD CRUISING – PERSONALITY
Cruisers see themselves as active and outgoing
Figure 60: Attitudes toward cruising – Personality, by cruisers/non-cruisers, June 2015
Some older cruisers not looking for novelty
Figure 61: Attitudes toward cruising – Personality, by age, June 2015
Cruising parents especially active and extroverted
Figure 62: Attitudes toward cruising – Personality, by gender and parental status, June 2015
Hispanics seek new adventures
Figure 63: Attitudes toward cruising – Personality, by Hispanic origin, June 2015
ATTITUDES TOWARD CRUISING – TRAVEL PREFERENCES
Cruisers look for novelty, activity and itineraries
Figure 64: Attitudes toward cruising – Travel preferences, by cruisers/non-cruisers, June 2015
Under-35s seek novelty and action
Figure 65: Attitudes toward cruising – Travel preferences, by age, June 2015
Dads want to see new places on a schedule
Figure 66: Attitudes toward cruising – Travel preferences, by gender and parental status, June 2015
Scheduling tools an opportunity with Hispanics
Figure 67: Attitudes toward cruising – Travel preferences, by Hispanic origin, June 2015
CONSUMER SEGMENTATION
Figure 68: Cruise segments, June 2015
Avid Cruisers
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunities
Aspirational Cruisers
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunities
Selective Cruisers
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunities
APPENDIX: DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX: MARKET
Market size and forecast
Figure 69: Total sales and forecast of cruise expenditures by passengers originating in North America, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Market breakdown
Figure 70: Areas cruised in the last three years, 2008-15
Market perspective
Figure 71: Value sales for vacations and tourism, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Figure 72: Value sales for leisure and entertainment, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Figure 73: Past three year cruise incidence and mean number of cruises, 2008-15
Figure 74: Amount spent per person on most recent cruise, 2008-15
Market factors
Figure 75: US population by age, 2010-20
APPENDIX: KEY PLAYERS
Profile of leading cruise brands
Figure 76: Cruise lines used in the last three years, 2008-15
APPENDIX: CONSUMER
Trends 2005-15
Figure 77: Cruise ship vacation in the last three years, 2008-15
Figure 78: Areas cruised in the last three years, 2008-15
Figure 79: Cruise lines used in the last three years, 2008-15
Figure 80: Plans to take a cruise ship vacation in the next 12 months, by all and past cruisers, 2008-15
Brand attributes
Figure 81: Cruise lines brand attributes, June 2015

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