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Holiday Review - UK - March 2015

INTRODUCTION
Definition
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Staycation turns to awaycation
Figure 1: Forecast total holiday market volume, 2009-19
Figure 2: Forecast overseas holiday market volume, 2009-19
Figure 3: Forecast domestic holiday market volume, 2009-19
Package rebound
Market factors
Oil down, pound up
Figure 4: European Brent Crude Oil monthly average spot price (US$ per barrel), January 2014-January 2015
Figure 5: Sterling exchange rate versus selected currencies, percentage change, 2009-15*
Companies, brands and innovation
Healthier holidays
Peer pressure
Ex machina
New app tools
The consumer
Beach and city neck and neck
The holiday year
Figure 6: Months holidays were taken in the past 12 months, October 2014
Over-55s and 25-34s are biggest spenders
Figure 7: Amount spent on holidays in the past 12 months, October 2014
Premium opportunities
Figure 8: Agreement with statements on holiday planning and booking habits, October 2014
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
What opportunities are there to raise levels of business outside the peak travel months?
The facts
The implications
Which types of product offer the best growth prospects over the next five years?
The facts
The implications
How can travel and tourism brands appeal to today’s value-hunting holidaymaker?
The facts
The implications
TREND APPLICATION
Trend: Nouveau Poor
Trend: Why Buy
Trend: Click and Connect
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Consumer confidence up as wages begin long road to recovery
Figure 9: GfK Consumer Confidence Index, January 2013 – January 2015
Oil prices down (but volatile)
Figure 10: European Brent Crude Oil monthly average spot price (US$ per barrel), January 2014-January 2015
Figure 11: Sterling exchange rate versus selected currencies, annual averages, 2009-14, and spot rate February 2015
Pound up but holidaymakers need to gamble
Figure 12: Sterling exchange rate versus selected currencies, percentage change, 2009-15*
APD reforms to boost family long haul
Figure 13: Air Passenger Duty (APD) rates April 2012-April 2015
But compensation claims could see fare rises
Over-55s travel boom expected
Figure 14: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, by gender, 2009-19
Schools out
INNOVATION, NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT AND TRENDS
Key points
Deals/offers/discounts
Wellness
Gastro-tourism
Active families
Expeditions/authenticity/localism
Peer-to-peer
Set-jetting
I, Robot
De-hassling travel
Augmenting reality
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Swing from overseas to UK holidays
Figure 15: Estimated total holiday market volume and value, 2009-19
Figure 16: Estimated overseas holiday market volume and value, 2009-19
Figure 17: Estimated domestic holiday market volume and value, 2009-19
Forecast
Figure 18: Forecast total holiday market volume, 2009-19
Figure 19: Forecast total holiday market value*, 2009-19
Figure 20: Forecast overseas holiday market volume, 2009-19
Figure 21: Forecast overseas holiday market value*, 2009-19
Figure 22: Forecast domestic holiday market volume, 2009-19
Figure 23: Forecast domestic holiday market value*, 2009-19
Forecast methodology
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Package regains market share
Figure 24: Volume of overseas package and independent holidays, 2009-14
Pent-up demand for long haul
Figure 25: Volume of overseas holidays, long-haul versus short-haul, 2009-14
Air travel leads overseas revival
Figure 26: Volume of overseas holidays, by transport method, 2009-14
Surge in short breaks abroad
Figure 27: Volume of overseas holidays, by duration, 2009-14
Figure 28: Percentage share of overseas holidays, by duration, 2009-14
Mexican wave
Figure 29: Top 20 overseas holiday destinations, 2009-14
UK short breaks outperforming longer holidays
Figure 30: Short versus long holidays in Great Britain, by volume, 2009-14
Camping and caravanning struggles
Figure 31: Number of domestic holiday trips in Great Britain, by type of accommodation, 2010-14
UK rail holidays on track
Figure 32: Volume of domestic holidays in Great Britain, by transport used, 2009-13
MARKET SHARE
Key points
easyJet increases market share
Figure 33: Global passengers uplifted, by top 10 UK airlines, 2013 and 2014
TUI and Cook show rising numbers
Figure 34: Passengers licensed under ATOL protection, by top 10 ATOL holders, 2011-15
THE CONSUMER – HOLIDAYS TAKEN IN THE LAST YEAR
Key points
Who goes where?
Figure 35: Holiday destinations visited in the past 12 months, October 2014
UK domestic
Figure 36: Domestic holidays taken in the past 12 months, by age group, October 2014
Figure 37: Domestic holidays taken in the past 12 months, by socio-economic group, October 2014
Figure 38: Domestic holidays taken in the past 12 months, by household income, October 2014
Short-haul
Figure 39: Short-haul holidays taken in the past 12 months, by age group, October 2014
Figure 40: Short-haul holidays taken in the past 12 months, by socio-economic group, October 2014
Figure 41: Short-haul holidays taken in the past 12 months, by household income, October 2014
Long-haul
Figure 42: Long-haul holidays taken in the past 12 months, by household income, October 2014
Single and multiple holidaymakers
Figure 43: Number of holidays taken per destination in the past 12 months, October 2014
THE CONSUMER – TYPE OF HOLIDAYS TAKEN IN THE PAST YEAR
Key points
Beach holidays and city breaks equally popular
Figure 44: Types of holiday taken in the past 12 months, October 2014
Figure 45: Types of holiday taken in the past 12 months, by destinations visited, October 2014
Holiday type demographics
THE CONSUMER – WHEN PEOPLE GO ON HOLIDAY
Key points
The annual holiday curve
Figure 46: Months holidays were taken in the past 12 months, October 2014
Figure 47: Seasons holidays were taken in the past 12 months, October 2014
Who goes when?
Autumn of life
Figure 48: Holidays taken September-November in the past 12 months, by generation, October 2014
Figure 49: Holidays taken June-September in the past 12 months, parents versus non-parents, October 2014
Seasonal variations by destination
Figure 50: Months holidays were taken in the past 12 months, by destination, October 2014
Seasonal variations by holiday type
Figure 51: Months holidays were taken in the past 12 months, by type of holiday, October 2014
Figure 52: Months holidays were taken in the past 12 months, by type of holiday (continued), October 2014
THE CONSUMER - HOW MUCH PEOPLE SPEND ON HOLIDAYS
Key points
Who spends what?
Figure 53: Amount spent on holidays in the past 12 months, October 2014
Figure 54: Amount spent on holidays in the past 12 months, October 2014
Figure 55: Amount spent on holidays in the past 12 months, by demographics, October 2014
Cruisers are highest spenders
Figure 56: Amount spent on holidays in the past 12 months, by type of holiday, October 2014
Figure 57: Amount spent on holidays in the past 12 months, by type of holiday (continued), October 2014
Shoulder months attract biggest spenders
Figure 58: Months holidays were taken, by amount spent on holidays in the past 12 months, October 2014
THE CONSUMER – HOLIDAY PLANNING HABITS
Key points
More planning and shopping around
Figure 59: Holiday planning and booking habits, October 2014
Premium potential
Figure 60: Agreement with selected holiday planning and booking habits, by demographics, October 2014
Figure 61: Agreement with selected holiday planning and booking habits, by holiday type, October 2014
Figure 62: Agreement with selected holiday planning and booking habits, by holiday type (continued), October 2014
Higher spenders will pay more for favourite brands
Figure 63: Agreement with selected holiday planning and booking habits, by amount spent on holidays, October 2014
THE CONSUMER – HOLIDAY INTENTIONS IN 2015
Key points
More of the same?
Figure 64: Holiday taking intentions, October 2014
Under-35s and ABs have highest spending intentions
Figure 65: Holiday spending intentions, October 2014

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