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Gluten-free Foods - US - September 2014

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Overview
The market
Sales forecast to reach $14.2 billion in 2017
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of gluten-free foods, at current prices, 2012-17
Strong growth across all major segments
Figure 2: Sales* of gluten-free foods, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2014
Market factors
Health halo, celiac disease, wide appeal all contribute to category growth
Figure 3: Companies with gluten-free food products as a share of all companies with food products, 2010-14*
Key players
Gluten-free category is highly fragmented
Figure 4: * Sales of gluten-free products at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014
Retail channels
Conventional channels preferred
Figure 5: Sales* of gluten-free foods, by retail channel, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
The consumer
Nearly one quarter of adults currently eat gluten-free versions of foods
Figure 6: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by gender, June 2014
Health is a main driver for consumption
Figure 7: Other reasons for eating gluten-free foods, top 10, June 2014
Opportunity to make gluten-free products more accessible
Figure 8: Behaviors related to gluten-free foods, top five, June 2014
Less than half of US adults trust gluten-free product claims
Figure 9: Agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, top five, June 2014
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Will the category continue to grow rapidly?
Issues
Insight: Growth will continue for the near future
What impact will the FDA definition of gluten-free have on the category?
Issues
Insight: Proper labeling should increase trust
What are the current perceptions of gluten-free foods?
Issues
Insight: Positive perceptions, but still room for innovation
TREND APPLICATIONS
Trend: Mood to Order
Trend: Guiding Choice
Trend: Non-standard Society
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Sales and forecast of gluten-free foods
Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of gluten-free foods, at current prices, 2012-17
Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of gluten-free foods, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-17
Figure 12: Sales* of gluten-free foods as a share of total category sales, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
Gluten-free market continues solid growth
Figure 13: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of gluten-free foods, at current prices, 2012-17
Forecast methodology
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Increasing awareness of celiac disease and gluten sensitivity
The health halo
Figure 14: Reason for watching your diet, January 2013-March 2014
Figure 15: Food products purchased when watching your diet, by age, January 2013-March 2014
Mass appeal and innovation growth
Figure 16: Companies with gluten-free food product launches as a share of all companies with food product launches, as per Mintel GNPD, 2010-14*
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Gluten-free foodservice options continue to expand
Figure 17: Gluten-free menu item claims, by restaurant segment, Q2 2011-Q2 2014
Figure 18: Gluten-free restaurant penetration, by restaurant segment, Q2 2011-Q2 2014
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Strongest growth among snacks, energy bar segments
Sales of gluten-free foods, by segment
Figure 19: Sales* of gluten-free foods, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
Figure 20: Sales* of gluten-free foods as a share of total category sales, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
Bread products and cereals
Sales of bread products and cereals
Figure 21: Sales* of total and gluten-free bread products and cereals, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
Condiments, seasonings, and spreads
Sales of condiments, seasonings, and spreads
Figure 22: Sales* of total and gluten-free condiments, seasonings, and spreads, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
Desserts
Sales of desserts
Figure 23: Sales* of total and gluten-free desserts, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
Energy bars
Sales of energy bars
Figure 24: Sales* of total and gluten-free energy bars, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
Meat/meat alternatives
Sales of meat/meat alternatives
Figure 25: Sales* of total and gluten-free meat/meat alternatives, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
Pasta and rice
Sales of pasta and rice
Figure 26: Sales* of total and gluten-free pasta and rice, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
Prepared foods
Sales of prepared foods
Figure 27: Sales* of total and gluten-free prepared foods, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
Snacks
Sales of snacks
Figure 28: Sales* of total and gluten-free snacks, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Greater product variety helps expand retail availability
Sales of gluten-free food, by channel
Figure 29: Sales* of gluten-free foods, by retail channel, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
Most food is non-organic, non-certified
Sales of gluten-free food, by organic content
Figure 30: Sales* of gluten-free foods, by organic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
Sales of gluten-free food, by certified share and segment
Figure 31: Sales* of certified gluten-free foods as a share of total gluten-free sales, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
LEADING COMPANIES AND BRAND ANALYSIS
Key points
Gluten-free food category highly fragmented
Figure 32: KIND Deliveries
Manufacturer sales of gluten-free foods
Figure 33: * Sales of gluten-free products at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
General Mills increases its market share 20%
Manufacturer sales of bread products and cereals
Figure 34: * Sales of gluten-free bread products and cereals at retail, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Dips, dressings represent most of segment
Manufacturer sales of condiments, seasonings, and spreads
Figure 35: * Sales of gluten-free condiments, seasonings, and spreads at retail, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Nearly half of dessert segment made up of small brands
Manufacturer sales of desserts
Figure 36: * Sales of gluten-free desserts at retail, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Nearly all gluten-free energy bar brands increase sales
Manufacturer sales of energy bars
Figure 37: * Sales of gluten-free energy bars at retail, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Hormel represents nearly one third of the segment
Manufacturer sales of meat/meat alternatives
Figure 38: * Sales of gluten-free meat/meat alternatives at retail, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
One third of pasta and rice segment from smaller brands
Figure 39: Gluten Free Rotini with a Charred Green Onion Pesto, Toasted Cashews, and Cranberries
Manufacturer sales of pasta and rice
Figure 40: * Sales of gluten-free pasta and rice at retail, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Boulder Brands experiences 100%+ growth in prepared foods
Manufacturer sales of prepared foods
Figure 41: * Sales of gluten-free prepared foods at retail, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
PepsiCo represents more than 40% of the gluten-free snacks segment
Manufacturer sales of snacks
Figure 42: * Sales of gluten-free snacks at retail, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS
Gluten-free food category highly fragmented
Figure 43: Gluten-free food product penetration, 2010-14*
Figure 44: Gluten-free food product launches, by top 10 companies, 2013-14*
Figure 45: Private label share of gluten-free food product launches, 2010-14*
Many leading categories are naturally gluten-free
Figure 46: Gluten-free food product launches, by top 10 categories, 2013-14*
Multiple product claims appear with gluten-free
Figure 47: Gluten-free food product launches, by top 10 claims, 2013-14*
New varieties most common
Figure 48: Gluten-free food product launches, by launch type, 2010-14*
SOCIAL MEDIA – GLUTEN-FREE FOODS
Key findings
Market overview
Key social media metrics
Figure 49: Key social media metrics, September 2014
Brand usage and awareness
Figure 50: Brand usage and awareness for select gluten-free food brands, July 2014
Interactions with gluten-free food brands
Figure 51: Interactions with select gluten-free food brands, July 2014
Leading online campaigns
Increasing brand awareness
Shareable content
What we think
Online conversations
Figure 52: Online conversations for select gluten-free product brands, by week, Aug. 31, 2013-Sept. 1, 2014
Where are people talking about gluten-free products?
Figure 53: Online conversations for select gluten-free product brands, by page type, Aug. 31, 2013-Sept. 1, 2014
What are people talking about?
Figure 54: Topics of conversation around select gluten-free product brands, Aug. 31, 2013-Sept. 1, 2014
CONSUMPTION OF GLUTEN-FREE FOODS
Key points
Year-over-year consumption increases
Figure 55: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by gender, June 2014
Consumption skews toward Millennials
Figure 56: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by age, June 2014
Younger women most interested in trying gluten-free foods
Figure 57: Past consumption of gluten-free foods, by gender and age, June 2014
REASONS FOR EATING GLUTEN-FREE FOODS
Key points
Most gluten-free food eaters have not been diagnosed with celiac disease
Figure 58: Reasons for eating gluten-free foods, by age, June 2014
Health is other main driver for eating gluten-free foods
Figure 59: Other reasons for eating gluten-free foods, by reasons for eating gluten-free foods, June 2014
MORE GLUTEN-FREE FOODS NEEDED
Key points
More gluten-free bread, pasta, pizza options needed
Figure 60: More gluten-free foods needed, by age, June 2014
SATISFACTION WITH GLUTEN-FREE FOODS
Key points
Satisfaction with gluten-free foods very high
Figure 61: Satisfaction with gluten-free foods, by age, June 2014
Figure 62: Satisfaction with gluten-free foods, by presence of children in household, June 2014
Consumers least satisfied with the cost of gluten-free foods
Figure 63: Satisfaction with gluten-free food attributes, June 2014
Figure 64: Satisfaction with gluten-free food attributes, by age, June 2014
BEHAVIORS RELATED TO GLUTEN-FREE FOODS
Key points
Opportunity to make gluten-free products more accessible
Figure 65: Behaviors related to gluten-free foods, by presence of children in household, June 2014
ATTITUDES TOWARD GLUTEN-FREE FOODS
Key points
Regulating the gluten-free label
Figure 66: Agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, June 2013 and June 2014
Figure 67: Agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by age, June 2014
The fad factor
Quality, value on the rise
RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
Hispanics most likely to eat gluten-free foods
Figure 68: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2014
Figure 69: Reasons for eating gluten-free foods, by Hispanic origin, June 2014
Figure 70: Satisfaction with select gluten-free food attributes, by Hispanic origin, June 2014
Figure 71: Agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2014
APPENDIX – OTHER USEFUL CONSUMER TABLES
Figure 72: Behaviors related to gluten-free foods, by age, June 2014
Figure 73: Agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by gender, June 2014
Figure 74: Past consumption of gluten-free foods, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
Figure 75: More gluten-free foods needed, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2014
APPENDIX – SOCIAL MEDIA – GLUTEN-FREE FOODS
Brand usage or awareness
Figure 76: Brand usage or awareness, June 2014
Figure 77: Udi’s Gluten Free usage or awareness, by demographics, June 2014
Figure 78: Glutino usage or awareness, by demographics, June 2014
Figure 79: Enjoy Life Foods usage or awareness, by demographics, June 2014
Figure 80: Rudi’s Gluten-Free Bakery usage or awareness, by demographics, June 2014
Figure 81: Bob’s Red Mill usage or awareness, by demographics, June 2014
Figure 82: Chex usage or awareness, by demographics, June 2014
Figure 83: Activities done, June 2014
Figure 84: Udi’s Gluten Free – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, June 2014
Figure 85: Udi’s Gluten Free – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, June 2014
Figure 86: Udi’s Gluten Free – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, June 2014
Figure 87: Udi’s Gluten Free – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, June 2014
Figure 88: Enjoy Life Foods – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, June 2014
Figure 89: Enjoy Life Foods – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, June 2014
Figure 90: Enjoy Life Foods – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, June 2014
Figure 91: Enjoy Life Foods – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, June 2014
Figure 92: Rudi’s Gluten-Free Bakery – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, June 2014
Figure 93: Rudi’s Gluten-Free Bakery – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, June 2014
Figure 94: Rudi’s Gluten-Free Bakery – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, June 2014
Figure 95: Rudi’s Gluten-Free Bakery – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, June 2014
Figure 96: Bob’s Red Mill – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, June 2014
Figure 97: Bob’s Red Mill – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, June 2014
Figure 98: Bob’s Red Mill – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, June 2014
Figure 99: Bob’s Red Mill – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, June 2014
Figure 100: Chex – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, June 2014
Figure 101: Chex – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, June 2014
Figure 102: Chex – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, June 2014
Figure 103: Chex – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, June 2014
Key social media metrics
Figure 104: Key social media metrics for select gluten-free product brands, September 2014
Figure 105: Online conversations for select gluten-free product brands, by week, Aug. 31, 2013-Sept. 1, 2014
Figure 106: Online conversations for select gluten-free product brands, by page type, Aug. 31, 2013-Sept. 1, 2014
Figure 107: Topics of conversation around select gluten-free product brands, Aug. 31, 2013-Sept. 1, 2014
APPENDIX – SEGMENTS AND SUB-SEGMENTS
APPENDIX – TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

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