Author: Mintel Group Ltd.
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Baking and Dessert Mixes - US - August 2014
Scope and Themes
 
What you need to know 
The US baking and dessert mixes category experienced flat sales in 2013 and 2014, when it reached $2.7 billion. Flat sales are forecasted for 2015, and by 2019 sales are projected to decline to $2.5 billion. Poor sales performance is driven mostly by health concerns; more than a quarter of consumers say they are using less mixes or none at all compared to a year ago because they are unhealthy. Further, recovering consumer confidence is spurring some consumers to spend more on dining out and on packaged baked goods, which negatively impacts sales of baking/dessert mixes. Additionally, an overall lack of innovation leaves consumers with few reasons to increase interest in the category.

However, data from Mintel’s custom online survey seems to contradict sluggish sales, reporting a higher likelihood for households with children to use some types of baking/dessert mixes and a wide variety of them. This indicates that brands must focus on families and the product attributes they perceive as important to slow down forecasted sales declines. This includes occasion-specific products, natural and premium ingredients, reduced fat/sugar/calories, and a number of different recipes provided on packaging. This report features analysis of these factors, as well as examination of the following:

●	The competitive threat represented by packaged baked good/dessert brands and baking from scratch
●	Why pancake and other mixes manage growth as all other segments decline
●	Company and brand analysis and why the three leading companies are all declining
●	Analysis of consumer behaviors and attitudes toward baking/dessert mixes, including usage compared to a year ago, reasons for using/buying, important purchase factors, and reasons for not using baking/dessert mixes.

Definition 
For the purposes of this report, Mintel has used the following definitions: 

This report builds on the analysis in Mintel’s Baking and Dessert Mixes – US, August 2013, as well as the January 2011, March 2007, and June 2005 reports of the same title, as well as Home Baking – US, January 2012. For the purposes of this report, baking and dessert mixes are covered as per the following definitions:

●	Cake/pie mixes
●	Pudding/gelatin mixes
●	Brownie mixes
●	Bread/muffin mixes
●	Pancake mixes
●	Prepared pie crusts
●	Other mixes

This report does not include refrigerated or frozen dough of any types; prebaked, prepackaged, store-baked items; individual baking ingredients (ie flour and yeast); stuffing mix; cereal bars; and pizza kits. Also excluded are ready-to-eat pudding or gelatin desserts. 

Value figures throughout this report are at rsp (retail selling price) excluding sales tax unless otherwise stated. 

Data sources
Sales data
●	Market Size, Forecast, Segment Performance, and Retail Channels: based on Information Resources, Inc. InfoScan Reviews; USDA Economic Research Service; U.S. Census Bureau, Economic Census; Progressive Grocer’s Consumer Expenditure Study/Mintel
●	Leading Companies and Brand Share: Information Resources, Inc., InfoScan Reviews

Consumer survey data
For the purposes of this report, Mintel commissioned exclusive consumer research through GMI to explore consumer consumption of/attitudes and behaviors toward baking and dessert mixes. Mintel was responsible for the survey design, data analysis, and reporting. Fieldwork was conducted in June 2014 among a sample of 2,000 adults aged 18+ with access to the internet.

Mintel selects survey respondents by gender, age, household income, and region so that they are proportionally representative of the US adult population using the internet. Mintel also slightly oversamples, relative to the population, respondents that are Hispanic or Black to ensure an adequate representation of these groups in our survey results and to allow for more precise parameter estimates from our reported findings. Please note that Mintel surveys are conducted online and in English only. Hispanics who are not online and/or do not speak English are not included in the survey results.

Mintel has also analyzed data from EMS (Experian Marketing Services), using the Simmons NCS (National Consumer Study) and the Simmons NHCS (National Hispanic Consumer Study).

The Experian Marketing Services, Simmons NCS/NHCS was carried out during January 2013-March 2014, and the results are based on the sample of 24,005 adults aged 18+, with results weighted to represent the US adult population. 

While race and Hispanic origin are separate demographic characteristics, Mintel often compares them to each other. Please note that the responses for race (White, Black, Asian, Native American, or other race) will overlap those that also are Hispanic, because Hispanics can be of any race.

Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
The following abbreviations are used in this report:

BFY | Better-for-you
BMI | Body mass index
CEO | Chief executive officer
CPI | Consumer Price Index
GM | General Mills Inc.
GNPD | Global New Products Database
ISB | In-store bakery
LLC | Limited liability company
MULO | Multi Outlet, representative of the following channels: total US grocery, mass, total US drug, total Walmart, dollar, military, and club
NHCS | National Consumer Study /National Hispanic Consumer Study (Experian Marketing Services)
POS | Point-of-sale
rsp | Retail selling price
RTE | Ready-to-eat
UPC | Universal Product Code
USDA | US Department of Agriculture

Generations are discussed within this report, and they are defined as:

World War II/Swing generations | Members of the WWII Generation were born in 1932 or before and are aged 82 or older in 2014. Members of the Swing Generation were born from 1933 to 1945 and are aged 69-81 in 2014.
Baby Boomers | The generation born between 1946 and 1964. In 2014, Baby Boomers are between the ages of 50 and 68.
Generation X | The generation born between 1965 and 1976. In 2014, Gen Xers are between the ages of 38 and 49.
Millennials * | Born between 1977 and 1994, Millennials are aged 20-37 in 2014.
iGeneration | Born between 1995 and 2007, members of iGen are aged 7-19 in 2014.
Emerging generation | The newest generation began in 2008 as the annual number of births declined sharply with the recession. In 2014, members of this as-yet-unnamed generation are younger than 7.

* also known as Generation Y or Echo Boomers

In order to provide an inflation-adjusted price value for markets, Mintel uses the CPI to deflate current prices. The CPI is defined as follows: 

CPI

The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

The CPI and its components are typically used to adjust other economic series for price changes and to translate these series into inflation-free dollars. Examples of series adjusted by the CPI include retail sales, hourly and weekly earnings, and components of the national income and product accounts. In addition, and in Mintel reports, the CPI is used as a deflator of the value of the consumer’s dollar to find its purchasing power. The purchasing power of the consumer’s dollar measures the change in the value to the consumer of goods and services that a dollar will buy at different dates. 

The CPI is generally the best measure for adjusting payments to consumers when the intent is to allow consumers to purchase, at today’s prices, a market basket of goods and services equivalent to one that they could purchase in an earlier period. It is also the best measure to use to translate retail sales into real or inflation-free dollars.

Based on Bureau of Labor Statistics definition.

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