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Footwear Retailing - UK - July 2014

INTRODUCTION
Definitions
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Sales set to grow 5.5% in 2014
Figure 1: UK footwear sales, best- and worst-case forecast, 2009-19
Online sales
Market factors
Men are as avid shoe shoppers as women
Growth in footwear spending exceeds total consumer spending
Companies, brands and innovation
Market shares
Figure 2: Top 10 retailers of footwear: Market shares, 2013
Leading specialists
Figure 3: Leading footwear specialists: compound annual growth rates in net revenues, 2009-12*
Innovation
Brands
Figure 4: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the footwear retailing sector, April 2014
The consumer
Where they buy
Figure 5: Retailers where men and women have bought footwear in-store or online, May 2014
Keen shoe shoppers peak among women aged 16-24
Figure 6: Numbers of pairs of shoes bought in the last 12 months, May 2014
Some 62% of women prefer to try footwear on
Figure 7: Attitudes towards shopping for footwear in-store and online, May 2014
Footwear specialists need to improve online offering
Figure 8: What would encourage more online purchasing of footwear, May 2014
Specialists fall down for fashion
Figure 9: Correspondence Analysis, May, 2014
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
How has the footwear market performed in the last 12 months?
The facts
The implications
Which retailers are emerging as the winners of 2014?
The facts
The implications
What are the main opportunities for growth?
The facts
The implications
TREND APPLICATIONS
Trend: Return to the Experts
Trend: Make it Mine
Mintel Futures: Human
MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Men are as avid shoe shoppers as women
Figure 10: Spending habits for clothing, footwear and accessories, by gender, March 2014
Growth in footwear spending exceeds total consumer spending
Figure 11: Consumer spending on clothing and footwear, (incl VAT), 2009-13
Figure 12: CPI annual % change for footwear, clothing and all items, May 2013-May 2014
Consumer context
Figure 13: Consumer confidence levels, June 2013 – May 2014
Figure 14: Annual % change in average weekly earnings versus annual % change in consumer prices, January 2010-February 2014
Improving consumer confidence as recovery strengthens
Figure 15: Trends in how respondents would describe their financial situation, February 2009-March 2014
Figure 16: Trends in consumer sentiment for the coming year, February 2009-March 2014
Trends in the age structure of the UK population
Figure 17: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2009-19
Rates of obesity remain high
Figure 18: Percentage of the UK population that is overweight and obese, by gender, 2005-12
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Strengths
Weaknesses
WHO IS INNOVATING?
Key points
In-store 3D customisation kiosk
Shoe recognition technology
Daniel Footwear app enhances seamless, multichannel experience
iPad app foot measuring service
State of the art shoe fitting technology
NFC-tagged shoes
Walk-in online shoe shop
M&S footwear inspiration station
Schuh brings the in-store customer experience online
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Figure 19: UK footwear sales, best- and worst-case forecast, 2009-19
Sales set to grow 5.5% in 2014
Clothing retailers continue to grow share
Footwear specialists see spending fall
Footwear sales at current and constant prices
Figure 20: UK footwear sales at current and constant prices, 2009-19
The future
Forecast methodology
SPECIALIST SECTOR SALES
Key points
Specialists see falling sales
Figure 21: Footwear specialists sales (incl vat), 2009-14
Specialists see share of market fall to below 50%
Figure 22: UK footwear specialists sales relative to all spending on footwear, 2009-13
Monthly figures show bad start to 2014
SPACE ALLOCATION SUMMARY
Key points
Summary data
Figure 23: Footwear retailers space allocation, July 2014
Figure 24: New Look, Westfield Stratford, July 2014
Detailed space allocation estimates
Figure 25: Footwear retailers space allocation estimates, July 2014
Figure 26: Footwear retailers space allocation estimates (continued), July 2014
CHANNELS OF DISTRIBUTION
Key points
Specialist to take 45% share in 2014
Figure 27: Distribution of spending on footwear, by type of retailer, 2014 (est)
Figure 28: Estimated distribution of spending on footwear, by type of retailer, 2013 and 2014
Specialists losing share
Figure 29: Estimated share of footwear spending taken by footwear specialists, 2009-14
MARKET SHARES
Key points
Non-specialists strong
Figure 30: Top ten retailers of footwear: market shares, 2013
Figure 31: Top 20 retailers of footwear: market shares, 2011-13
LEADING SPECIALIST RETAILERS
Key points
Fashion-focused retailers outperform
Figure 32: Leading footwear specialists: Compound annual growth rates in net revenues, 2009-12*
The top specialists: Sales
Figure 33: Leading footwear specialists: net revenues, 2009-13
Stores: Office grows, Shoe Zone Group contracts
Figure 34: Leading footwear specialists: outlet numbers, 2009-13
Sales per outlet: Office and Schuh see underlying growth
Figure 35: Leading footwear specialists: annual sales per outlet, 2009-13
Operating profits and margins
Figure 36: Leading footwear specialists: Operating profits, 2009-13
Figure 37: Leading footwear specialists: operating margins, 2009-13
LEADING NON-SPECIALIST RETAILERS
Key points
The top ten
Figure 38: Leading non-specialist retailers: estimated footwear sales (excl VAT), 2012 and 2013
The consumer: shopping at non-specialists
Figure 39: The consumer: Where they have bought footwear in the last 12 months, in-store or online, May 2014
Leading non-specialists: retail offering
Figure 40: Leading non-specialist retailers: Positioning, offer and brands stocked, June 2014
ONLINE
Key points
Online sales top £1 billion
Figure 41: Online sales of footwear (incl VAT), 2012-15
Distribution: pureplays versus multichannel
Figure 42: Estimated distribution of online sales (incl VAT), 2013 and 2014
Online market leaders
Figure 43: Leading online retailers: estimated net online revenues and online market shares, (excl VAT), 2013
The consumer: Amazon leads by shopper numbers
Figure 44: The consumer: Where they have bought footwear online in the last 12 months, May 2014
Visitor numbers: Zalando enters the top tier
Figure 45: Leading apparel retail websites, ranked by total unique visitor numbers, May 2014
BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Key points
Adspend down
Figure 46: Total main media adspend in the UK footwear market, 2009-13
Top 25 account for 92.5% of total category adspend
Figure 47: Main media adspend by the leading 25 UK footwear advertisers, 2009-13
Spending relative to turnover
Figure 48: Selected UK footwear retailers’ advertising spending as % of turnover, 2009-13
56% of adspend channelled through direct mail
Figure 49: Main media adspend, by media type, 2009-13
BRAND RESEARCH
Brand map
Figure 50: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the footwear retailing sector, April 2014
Correspondence analysis
Brand attitudes
Figure 51: Attitudes, by footwear retailing brand, April 2014
Brand personality
Figure 52: Footwear retailing brand personality – macro image, April 2014
Figure 53: Footwear retailing brand personality – micro image, April 2014
Brand experience
Figure 54: Footwear retailing brand usage, April 2014
Figure 55: Satisfaction with various footwear retailing brands, April 2014
Figure 56: Consideration of footwear retailing brands, April 2014
Figure 57: Consumer perceptions of current footwear retailing brand performance, April 2014
Brand recommendation
Figure 58: Likely recommendation of various footwear retailing brands, April 2014
THE CONSUMER – WHERE THEY BUY
Key points
What we asked
Some 25% buy footwear from sports shops
Figure 59: Retailers where men and women have bought footwear in-store or online, May 2014
Clothing retailers draw more male shoe shoppers
Clarks sees fall in female shoppers
Fashion retailers grow their influence on footwear market
Figure 60: Retailers where men and women have bought footwear in-store or online, May 2013 and May 2014
Where consumers buy – offline/online split
Figure 61: Retailers where men and women have bought footwear, by in-store and online, May 2014
Schuh attracts an older crowd than Office
Figure 62: Consumers who bought footwear from Schuh, Office and other specialist shoe retailers in-store and online, by age, May 2014
Under-35s main shoe shoppers
THE CONSUMER – TYPES OF SHOES PURCHASED AND AMOUNT SPENT
Key points
Keen shoe shoppers peak among women aged 16-24
Figure 63: Numbers of pairs of shoes bought in the last 12 months, May 2014
Flat shoes become even more popular
Figure 64: Percentage of women who have bought shoes from each shoe category, May 2014
Men aged under-45 spend most on shoes
Females aged 25-34-years-old spend more than under-25s
Figure 65: Average amount spent on women’s shoes in the last 12 months, May 2014
Rise in male 25-34s buying formal shoes
Figure 66: Percentage of men who have bought shoes from each shoe category, May 2014
Young men spend most on trainers
Figure 67: Average amount spent on men’s shoes in the last 12 months, May 2014
THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS SHOPPING FOR FOOTWEAR IN-STORE AND ONLINE
Key points
Some 62% of women prefer to try footwear on
Figure 68: Attitudes towards shopping for footwear in-store and online, May 2014
Women enjoy shoe shopping more than men
Figure 69: Attitudes towards shopping for footwear in-store and online, by age group, May 2014
Increased interest in comfort
Figure 70: Agreement with statement ‘comfort is more important that fashion when buying footwear, by age group, May 2014
Young people willing to splash out on branded shoes
Figure 71: Agreement with statements ‘I am willing to pay more for well-known branded footwear’ and ‘ I tend to buy retailers’ own-brand footwear’, by age group, May 2014
25-34s will spend on stand out shoes
Figure 72: Attitudes towards shopping for footwear in-store and online, by age group, May 2014
Some 25% of under-25s buy clothes and shoes together
THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS BUYING FOOTWEAR ONLINE
Key points
Figure 73: What would encourage more online purchasing of footwear, May 2014
Footwear specialists need to improve online offering
A quarter of women want to click-and-collect shoes
Figure 74: What would encourage more online purchasing of footwear, by gender, May 2014
Young want better product displays
Figure 75: What would encourage more online purchasing of footwear, by age group, May 2014
Women look for guidance on sizing
Style advice
Making returns easier
Men interested in app for buying shoes
The shoe shopping journey
THE CONSUMER – CORRESPONDENCE ANALYSIS
Key points
Methodology
What we asked
Figure 76: Correspondence Analysis, May, 2014
Specialists fall down for fashion
Clothing retailers
Department stores
Online only retailers
BARRATTS.CO.UK (FORMERLY BARRATTS TRADING LTD)
Figure 77: Barratts Trading Ltd*: Group financial performance, 2008-09 and 2012-13
Figure 78: Barratts Trading Ltd: Outlet data, 2008-09 and 2012-13
MACINTOSH RETAIL GROUP (BRANTANO AND A. JONES)
What we think
Company background
Company performance
Figure 79: Brantano (UK): Financial performance, 2009-13
Figure 80: Brantano (UK) Outlet data, 2009-13
Figure 81: A. Jones & Sons PLC: Financial Performance, 2009-13
Figure 82: A. Jones & Sons PLC: Outlet data, 2009-13
Retail offering
C&J CLARK (UK)
What we think
Company background
Company performance
Figure 83: C&J Clark Group: Group financial performance, 2009-10 and 2013-14
Figure 84: C&J Clark Group: Outlet numbers, 2009-10 and 2013-14
Figure 85: C&J Clark (UK): Outlet data, 2009-10 and 2013-14
Retail offering
Product mix
DUNE GROUP
Figure 86: Dune Group: Group financial performance, 2009-10 and 2013-14
Figure 87: Dune Group: Outlet Data, 2009-10 and 2013-14
Figure 88: Dune Group: outlet numbers, 2008-09 and 2012-13
FOOT LOCKER LTD
Figure 89: Foot Locker Ltd: Group financial performance, 2008-13
Figure 90: Foot Locker Ltd: Outlet data, 2008-13
KURT GEIGER
What we think
Company background
Company performance
Figure 91: Kurt Geiger Ltd: Group financial performance, 2009-13
Figure 92: Kurt Geiger Ltd: Outlet data, 2009-14
Retail offering
OFFICE HOLDINGS
What we think
Company background
Company performance
Figure 93: Office Holdings Ltd: Group financial performance, 2008-09 and 2013-14
Figure 94: Office Holdings Ltd: Outlet data, 2008-09 and 2013-14
Retail offering
RUSSELL & BROMLEY
What we think
Company background
Company performance
Figure 95: Russell & Bromley Ltd: Group financial performance, 2008-13
Figure 96: Russell & Bromley Ltd: Outlet data, 2008-13
Retail offering
SCHUH (UK)
What we think
Company background
Company performance
Figure 97: Schuh Ltd: Group financial performance, 2008-09 and 2013-14
Figure 98: Schuh Ltd: Outlet data, 2008-09 and 2013-14
Retail offering
SHOE ZONE GROUP
What we think
Company background
Company performance
Figure 99: Shoe Zone Group Ltd: Group financial performance, 2008-09 and 2012-13
Figure 100: Shoe Zone Group Ltd: Outlet data, 2007-08 and 2012-13
Retail offering
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Figure 101: Best and worst case forecast for footwear sales, 2014-19
APPENDIX – BRAND RESEARCH
Figure 102: Brand usage, April 2014
Figure 103: Brand commitment, April 2014
Figure 104: Brand momentum, April 2014
Figure 105: Brand diversity, April 2014
Figure 106: Brand satisfaction, April 2014
Figure 107: Brand recommendation, April 2014
Figure 108: Brand attitude, April 2014
Figure 109: Brand image – macro image, April 2014
Figure 110: Brand image – micro image, April 2014
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – WHERE THEY BUY
Figure 111: Most popular retailers where men and women have bought footwear in-store or online – All users, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 112: Next most popular retailers where men and women have bought footwear in-store or online – All users, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 113: Other retailers where men and women have bought footwear in-store or online – All users, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 114: Least popular retailers where men and women have bought footwear in-store or online – All users, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 115: Repertoire of retailers where men and women have bought footwear in-store or online, by demographics, May 2014
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – TYPES OF SHOES PURCHASED AND AMOUNT SPENT
Figure 116: Numbers of pairs of women's shoes bought in the last 12 months – All categories, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 117: Most popular % of women who have bought shoes from each category, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 118: Next most popular % of women who have bought shoes from each category, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 119: Numbers of pairs of men's shoes bought in the last 12 months – All categories, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 120: % of men who have bought shoes from each category, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 121: Average amount spent on women's shoes in the last 12 months total and per category – All women's shoes, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 122: Average amount spent on men's shoes in the last 12 months total and per category – All men's shoes, by demographics, May 2014
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS SHOPPING FOR FOOTWEAR IN-STORE AND ONLINE
Figure 123: Most popular attitudes towards shopping for footwear in-store and online, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 124: Next most popular attitudes towards shopping for footwear in-store and online, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 125: Other attitudes towards shopping for footwear in-store and online, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 126: Attitudes towards shopping for footwear in-store and online, by most popular retailers where men and women have bought footwear in-store or online – All users, May 2014
Figure 127: Attitudes towards shopping for footwear in-store and online, by next most popular retailers where men and women have bought footwear in-store or online – All users, May 2014
Figure 128: Attitudes towards shopping for footwear in-store and online, by other retailers where men and women have bought footwear in-store or online – All users, May 2014
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS BUYING FOOTWEAR ONLINE
Figure 129: Most popular what would encourage more online purchasing of footwear, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 130: Next most popular what would encourage more online purchasing of footwear, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 131: Other what would encourage more online purchasing of footwear, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 132: Retailers where men and women have bought footwear in-store or online, by most popular what would encourage more online purchasing of footwear, May 2014
Figure 133: Retailers where men and women have bought footwear in-store or online, by next most popular what would encourage more online purchasing of footwear, May 2014
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – CORRESPONDENCE ANALYSIS
Figure 134: Most popular associations with different types of retailers – Specialist footwear retailers, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 135: Next most popular associations with different types of retailers – Specialist footwear retailers, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 136: Most popular associations with different types of retailers – Clothing retailers, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 137: Next most popular associations with different types of retailers – Clothing retailers, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 138: Most popular associations with different types of retailers – Department stores, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 139: Next most popular associations with different types of retailers – Department stores, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 140: Most popular associations with different types of retailers – Online only retailers, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 141: Next most popular associations with different types of retailers – Online only retailers, by demographics, May 2014

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