Cordials and Squashes - UK - October 2013

INTRODUCTION
Definition
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: Forecast of UK value sales of cordials and squashes, 2008-18
Figure 2: Forecast of UK volume sales of cordials and squashes, 2008-18
Market factors
Consumer confidence picking up
Growth aided by the warm weather
Population changes bring threats and opportunities
Companies, brands and innovation
Figure 3: Share of value sales of cordials and squashes in the off-trade, by manufacturer, 2012/13
New product launches remain flat in 2012
Adspend also remains broadly flat
The consumer
Squash enjoys higher and more regular usage than cordials
Mealtimes are key for the market
Favourite flavour drives purchases
Figure 4: Choice factors when buying squashes and cordials, August 2013
‘Classic’ flavours remain the most popular
Cordials/squashes seen positively by the majority of users
Figure 5: Attitudes towards cordials and squashes, August 2013
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
How can cordials/squashes tap into the lucrative on-the-go occasion?
Which factors can producers use to offer added value?
How can cordials/squashes grow in the on-trade?
Can cordials/squashes leverage the functional message?
TREND APPLICATION
Transumers
Sense of the Intense
Mintel Futures: Old Gold
MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Consumer confidence recovering
Figure 6: Consumer Confidence Index, monthly, January 2007-September 2013
Hot summers important for the cordials market
Figure 7: Hours of sunshine in the UK, by month, 2008-13
Figure 8: UK rainfall, by month, 2008-13
Cordials and squashes well placed to leverage value-for-money image
Figure 9: Price per 100ml of selected soft drinks, September 2013
An ageing population poses problems to the cordials/squashes market
Figure 10: Projected trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2013-18
Cs and Ds will hold the key to growth
Figure 11: Changes in the adult socio-economic structure of the UK population, 2013-18
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Squashes/cordials remain popular drinks for the majority
Figure 12: Volume sales in soft drinks markets, 2008-13
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Strengths
Weaknesses
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points
Cordial/squash launches plateau in 2012
Figure 13: Share of new cordial and squash product launches in NPD in the UK non-alcoholic drinks market, 2009-13
Healthier and environmentally friendly cordials on the march
Double concentrates remain influential
Figure 14: Share of new double-concentrate launches within total cordial and squash market NPD, 2009-13
Own-label squashes grow in NPD
Figure 15: Share of new launches in the cordials and squash market, by own-label and brands, 2009-13
Tapping into on-the-go drinking
Flavours becoming more adventurous
MARKET SIZE AND SEGMENTATION
Key points
Sunnier outlook for cordials and squashes in 2013
Figure 16: UK value and volume sales of cordials and squashes, at current and constant prices, 2008-18
Figure 17: Forecast of UK value sales of cordials and squashes, 2008-18
Figure 18: Forecast of UK volume sales of cordials and squashes, 2008-18
Forecast methodology
Market segmentation: Off-trade performance
Figure 19: UK value and volume sales of cordials and squashes in the off-trade, at current and constant prices, 2008-13
Market segmentation: On-trade performance
Figure 20: UK value and volume sales of cordials and squashes in the on-trade, at current and constant prices, 2008-13
CHANNELS TO MARKET
Key points
Multiples increase their share in 2012
Figure 21: UK value sales of squash and cordial, by channel, 2010-12
On-trade woes in 2012
MARKET SHARE
Key points
Britvic dominates off-trade sales of cordials
Figure 22: Share of value sales of cordials and squashes in the off-trade, by manufacturer, 2012/13
Figure 23: Value sales of top-selling cordial and squash brands in the off-trade, 2011/12 and 2012/13
Ribena finds a new home
Premium cordials achieve small but steady growth
Own-label sales in growth
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
Belvoir Fruit Farms
Bottlegreen (SHS Drinks)
Britvic
Coca-Cola Enterprises
GSK (Suntory)
Nichols
Princes Group
BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Key points
Consistent adspend in the cordials/squashes market
Figure 24: Total advertising expenditure in the cordials and squashes market, 2009-13
Britvic closes the gap on GSK
Figure 25: Total advertising expenditure in the cordials and squashes market, by top five companies, 2009-13
Other brands and the retailers remain small investors
TV advertising rises in popularity
CONSUMER – USAGE OF CORDIALS AND SQUASHES
Key points
Squash enjoys higher and more regular usage than cordials
Figure 26: Usage of squashes and cordials, by gender, age and socio-economic group, August 2013
Standard squash under strong competition from double concentrates
Figure 27: Usage of squashes and cordials, by frequency, by type, August 2013
Cordials carving out their niche
Other types of cordials/squashes only garner a niche response
CONSUMER – OCCASIONS FOR USAGE
Key points
Mealtimes are the key occasion for drinking squashes/cordials
Figure 28: Occasions for drinking squashes and cordials, August 2013
Soft drinks seen as overpriced out of home
Tapping into on-the-go use
Exercise also provides opportunities
CONSUMER – CHOICE FACTORS
Key points
15% of users do not buy squashes/cordials for themselves
Figure 29: Purchase of squash/cordials, August 2013
Flavour and price are the key purchase drivers
Figure 30: Choice factors when buying squashes and cordials, August 2013
Flavour is on a par with price
Fortified drinks enjoy limited interest
A quarter look for double concentrates
CONSUMER – FLAVOURS OF CORDIALS AND SQUASHES
Key points
Orange leads the way in terms of flavours
Figure 31: Usage and opinions of different cordial/squash flavours, August 2013
Elderflower enjoys premium appeal
High interest in tangerine/mandarin
Figure 32: Interest in different cordial/squash flavours, August 2013
CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS CORDIALS AND SQUASHES
Key points
Cordials/squashes seen positively by the majority of users
Figure 33: Attitudes towards cordials and squashes, August 2013
Cordials/squashes are seen to deliver value for money
Figure 34: Attitudes towards the cost/value of cordials and squashes, August 2013
There is widespread readiness to pay more…
…but brands will have to convince consumers to trade up
Cordials/squashes also seen as a healthy option
Figure 35: Attitudes towards the healthiness of cordials and squashes, August 2013
A taste of the exotic
Figure 36: Attitudes towards the taste of cordials and squashes, August 2013
Potential for warm cordials/squashes
CONSUMER – TARGET GROUPS
Key points
Three target groups
Figure 37: Target groups for cordials and squashes, August 2013
Enthusiasts (37%)
Detractors (33%)
Price-Driven (30%)
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND SEGMENTATION
Figure 38: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the cordials and squashes market, by value, 2013-18
Figure 39: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the cordials and squashes market, by volume, 2013-18
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – USAGE OF CORDIALS AND SQUASHES
Figure 40: Usage of squashes and cordials, August 2013
Figure 41: Usage of standard squash, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 42: Usage of double-concentrate squash, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 43: Usage of high juice squash, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 44: Usage of squash with added vitamins/minerals, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 45: Usage of standard cordial, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 46: Usage of premium cordial, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 47: Usage of fruit and barley water, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 48: Usage of low/no-calorie squash, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 49: Usage of powder mix squash, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 50: Usage of fruit syrup, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 51: Usage of any other squash/cordial, by demographics, August 2013
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – OCCASIONS FOR USAGE
Figure 52: Occasions for drinking squashes and cordials, August 2013
Figure 53: Most popular occasions for drinking squashes and cordials, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 54: Next most popular occasions for drinking squashes and cordials, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 55: Other occasions for drinking squashes and cordials, by demographics, August 2013
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – CHOICE FACTORS
Figure 56: Purchase of squash/cordials, August 2013
Figure 57: Purchase of squash/cordials, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 58: Choice factors when buying squashes and cordials, August 2013
Figure 59: Most popular choice factors when buying squashes and cordials, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 60: Next most popular choice factors when buying squashes and cordials, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 61: Other choice factors when buying squashes and cordials, by demographics, August 2013
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – FLAVOURS OF CORDIALS AND SQUASHES
Figure 62: Usage and opinions of different cordial/squash flavours, August 2013
Figure 63: Usage and opinions of tangerine/mandarin-flavoured squashes/cordials, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 64: Usage and opinions of orange-flavoured squashes/cordials, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 65: Usage and opinions of tropical fruit-flavoured squashes/cordials, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 66: Usage and opinions of elderflower-flavoured squashes/cordials, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 67: Usage and opinions of any berry/currant-flavoured squashes/cordials, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 68: Usage and opinions of lime-flavoured squashes/cordials, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 69: Usage and opinions of lemon-flavoured squashes/cordials, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 70: Usage and opinions of peach-flavoured squashes/cordials, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 71: Usage and opinions of pineapple-flavoured squashes/cordials, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 72: Usage and opinions of grape-flavoured squashes/cordials, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 73: Usage and opinions of apple-flavoured squashes/cordials, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 74: Usage and opinions of ginger-flavoured squashes/cordials, by demographics, August 2013
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS CORDIALS AND SQUASHES
Figure 75: Attitudes towards cordials and squashes, August 2013
Figure 76: Agreement with the statements ‘I am prepared to pay more for squashes/cordials with functional benefits’ and ‘Supermarket own-label squashes/cordials are just as good as branded varieties’, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 77: Agreement with the statements ‘Squashes/cordials are good value for money’ and ‘Double-strength squashes are better value for money than those that are standard strength’, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 78: Agreement with the statements ‘I prefer all-natural squashes/cordials to ones with added sweeteners/sugar’ and ‘Squashes/cordials are a healthier option compared to other soft drinks’, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 79: Agreement with the statements ‘Squashes/cordials are a healthy drink for children’ and ‘Fruit squash/cordial tastes too sweet’, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 80: Agreement with the statements ‘I would be interested squashes/cordials which are intended to be drunk warm’ and ‘I am interested in trying squashes/ cordials with unusual or exotic flavours’, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 81: Agreement with the statements ‘Squashes/cordials should provide more information about how they are produced’ and ‘I am prepared to pay more for squashes/cordials with a higher fruit content’, by demographics, August 2013
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – TARGET GROUPS
Figure 82: Target groups, by demographics, August 2013
Figure 83: Usage of squashes and cordials, by target groups, August 2013
Figure 84: Occasions for drinking squashes and cordials, by target groups, August 2013
Figure 85: Choice factors when buying squashes and cordials, by target groups, August 2013
Figure 86: Usage and opinions of different cordial/squash flavours, by target groups, August 2013
Figure 87: Attitudes towards cordials and squashes, by target groups, August 2013