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Cakes and Cake Bars - UK - May 2013

INTRODUCTION
Definitions
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: UK retail sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, by value, 2007-17
Segment performance
Figure 2: Trends in UK retail sales of cakes and cakes bars, by segment, value and volume, 2011-12
Market factors
Competition from alternative snacks and home baking
Market opportunities lie in creating more healthy choices
Companies, brands and innovation
Market share
Figure 3: Brand shares in the cakes and cake bars market, by value and volume, 2012*
NPD activity
The consumer
Types of cakes/cake bars purchased or eaten
Figure 4: Types of cakes/cake bars bought or eaten in the past six months, March 2013
Choice factors – nutritional/ingredients
Figure 5: Nutritional and ingredient-based factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, March 2013
Choice factors - other
Figure 6: Non-nutritional and ingredient-based factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, March 2013
Attitudes towards cakes and cake bars
Figure 7: Attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, March 2013
Barriers to buying cake and cake bars
Figure 8: Barriers to buying cake and cake bars, March 2013
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
What can cakes and cake bars learn from rival treat categories?
Do healthier options resonate in the cake and cake bars market?
How can cake brands combat low penetration among under-25s?
How can flavour innovation support interest in the price-led market?
TREND APPLICATION
Trend: Perfecting the Details
Trend: FSTR and HYPR
Mintel Futures: Human
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Competitive pressures from alternative snacks
Figure 9: Household purchased quantities of selected food categories, by type, % change, 2006-11 and 2010-11
Figure 10: Performance of selected markets competing with cakes and cake bars, 2008-12
Cupcakes mania shows no signs of abating
Popularity of home baking
Health and obesity concerns restrict cake consumption
Smaller households pose a threat to cake and cake bars
Figure 11: Trends and projections in UK households, by size, 2007-17
Price sensitivity heightened by widespread weak consumer confidence
Figure 12: Average annual price indices for cakes and biscuits, 2007-11
Money-saving deals attract hard-pressed consumers
Figure 13: Monthly consumer confidence index, January 2008-December 2012
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points
Innovation in cakes, pastries and sweet goods
Own-label outweighs branded activity
Figure 14: Product launches within the UK cakes, pastries and sweet goods market, own-label versus brands, 2009-12
Brands look to sugar confectionery for inspiration
Figure 15: Product launches within the UK cakes, pastries and sweet goods market, by top ten companies, 2012
Seasonal impetus drives sales and offers further potential for growth
Figure 16: Product launches within the UK cakes, pastries and sweet goods market, by leading claims, 2012
Untapped Easter opportunities
Summer and Halloween
Influx of limited editions in red, white and blue
Number of new slimming lines rise in 2012
Figure 17: Product launches within the UK cakes, pastries and sweet goods market, by selected health-related claims, 2009-13*
Free-from alternatives make cake more accessible
Global examples
Mr Kipling adds a modern twist on traditional flavours and formats
No sign of cupcake momentum slowing
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Strengths
Weaknesses
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Cakes and cake bars
Figure 18: UK retail sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, by value and volume, 2007-11
Continued blurring between categories
Market outlook
Figure 19: UK retail sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, by volume, 2007-17
Figure 20: UK retail sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, by value, 2007-17
Small cakes and cake bars grow market share
Figure 21: UK retail sales of small cakes and cake bars and seasonal/occasion cakes, by value and volume, 2007-17
Figure 22: UK retail sales and forecast of small cakes and cake bars and seasonal/occasion cakes, by value, 2007-17
Large cakes – the shrink is on
Figure 23: UK retail sales of large cakes (excl. seasonal/occasion cakes), by value and volume, 2007-17
Figure 24: UK retail sales and forecast of large cakes (excl. seasonal/occasion cakes), by value, 2007-17
Forecast methodology
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Key points
Overall positive performance by small cakes let down by seasonal/occasion and large cakes’ performance
Figure 25: UK retail sales of cakes and cakes bars, by segment, value and volume, % change, 2011-12
Surge in small cake sales
Seasonal opportunities
Large cakes bolstered by Soreen’s snacking evolution
Figure 26: UK retail value sales of cakes and cakes bars, by segment, 2011-12
Figure 27: UK retail volume sales of cakes and cakes bars, by segment, 2011-12
MARKET SHARE
Key points
Own-label tightens its grip on cakes and cake bars
Figure 28: Brand shares in the cakes and cake bars market, by value and volume, 2012*
Figure 29: Brand shares in the cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2012-13
Figure 30: Brand shares in the cakes and cake bars market, by volume, 2012-13*
Mr Kipling extends its leadership among cake brands
McVitie’s dips into chocolate and biscuit portfolio for brand extensions
Can the launch of ‘minis’ help Fabulous Bakin’ Boys recover in 2013?
Soreen celebrates 75th anniversary in style
WeightWatchers relies on NPD to revive sales
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
Figure 31: Leading brands in the cake and cake bars market, 2013
United Biscuits (UBUK)
Background
Product range and innovation
Brand communication and promotion
Premier Foods
Background
Recent activity
Product range and innovation
Brand communication and promotion
McCambridge Group
Background
Product range and innovation
Brand communication and promotion
Finsbury Food Group
Recent activity
Product range and innovation
The Fabulous Bakin’ Boys (FBB)
Background
Product range and innovation
Brand communication and promotion
Greencore
BRAND COMMUNICATIONS
Key points
Low but rising levels of adspend in cakes
Figure 32: Main monitored media advertising spend in the UK cakes and cake bars market, 2009-13*
Figure 33: Main monitored media advertising expenditure in the cakes and cake bars market, 2009-12
Premier Foods flexes its heavyweight muscles in 2012
Figure 34: Advertising expenditure in the cakes and cake bars market, by highest-spending brands, 2009-13
Mr Kipling powers ahead
McVitie’s brings out the celebration cake
CHANNELS TO MARKET
Key points
Major multiples maintain their market dominance
Figure 35: UK retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, by outlet type, 2010-12
A more rustic, homemade slant applied to in-store bakeries
CONSUMER – TYPES OF CAKES/CAKE BARS PURCHASED OR EATEN
Key points
Cake and cake bar usage
Figure 36: Types of cakes/cake bars bought or eaten in the past six months, March 2013
Cakes enjoy highest penetration among family households
Large cakes make ‘staying in’ a more special occasion
Figure 37: Types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, by selected age groups, % point +/- average, March 2013
Youngest and oldest age groups lack engagement in the category
Figure 38: Repertoire of types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, March 2013
Enthusiasm for cakes peaks among 25-44s
CONSUMER – CHOICE FACTORS (NUTRITIONAL AND INGREDIENT-BASED)
Key points
Important factors affecting choice of cakes and cake bars
Figure 39: Nutritional and ingredient-based factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, March 2013
A sizeable minority of users value health credentials in cakes and cake bars
Natural and free-from claims
Functional attributes untested territory in cakes?
Premium ingredients add sophistication
CONSUMER – CHOICE FACTORS (NON-NUTRITIONAL AND INGREDIENT-BASED)
Key points
Other important factors affecting choice of cakes and cake bars
Figure 40: Non-nutritional and ingredient-based factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, March 2013
Price-sensitivity governs decision-making
Flavour, ingredients and processes
Convenience formats enhance usage potential
CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS CAKES AND CAKE BARS
Key points
Cake users show reluctance to compromise on taste for health benefits
Figure 41: Attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, March 2013
Tapping into cake’s energy resources
Sizeable minority are receptive to new flavours
Figure 42: Selected attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, by over-55s, % point +/- average, March 2013
Children are a positive influence on cake consumption
Figure 43: Selected attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, by parents, March 2013
Further demand for individual portions
Confectionery brands attract a younger audience
CONSUMER – BARRIERS TO BUYING CAKE AND CAKE BARS
Key points
Health and cost reasons restrict cake purchase
Figure 44: Barriers to buying cake and cake bars, March 2013
Health concerns top the list of potential barriers to purchase
Figure 45: Health-related barriers to buying cake and cake bars, March 2013
Penny-pinching takes its toll on cakes
A preference for home-made among older consumers
Under-25s most likely to struggle to see cake as an ‘on the go’ option
Young women are key target for reduced fat lines
Figure 46: Nutritional and ingredient-based factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars “Reduced fat” – CHAID – Table output, March 2013
APPENDIX – MARKET DRIVERS
Figure 47: Average weekly household purchased quantities of selected food categories, by type, % change, 2006-11 and 2010-11
Figure 48: Trends and projections in the UK population (‘000s), by age group, 2007-17
Figure 49: RPI, detailed indices for food and cake/biscuits, January 2012-February 2013
Figure 50: Average monthly UK prices of wheat, January 2008-November 2012
Figure 51: Percentage monthly change in retail prices of butter and oil and fats, January 2007-April 2012
Figure 52: GDP, PDI, consumer expenditure and savings, at constant 2007 prices, 2007-17
APPENDIX – WHO’S INNOVATING?
Figure 53: Product launches within the UK cakes and cake bars market, by flavour, 2012
APPENDIX – MARKET FORECAST
Cakes and cake bars
Figure 54: Forecast of UK retail sales of cakes and cake bars, best- and worst-case forecast, by value, 2012-17
Figure 55: Forecast of UK retail sales of cakes and cake bars, best- and worst-case forecast, by volume,
Small cakes and seasonal/occasion cakes
Figure 56: Forecast of UK retail sales of small cakes and cake bars and seasonal/occasion cakes, best- and worst-case forecast, by value, 2012-17
Figure 57: UK retail sales and forecast of small cakes and cake bars and seasonal/occasion cakes, by volume, 2012-17
Figure 58: UK retail sales and forecast of small cakes and cake bars and seasonal/occasion cakes, by volume, 2007-17
Large cakes
Figure 59: Forecast of UK retail sales of large cakes (excl. seasonal/occasion cakes), best- and worst-case forecast, by value, 2012-17
Figure 60: UK retail sales and forecast of large cakes (excl. seasonal/occasion cakes), by volume, 2012-17
Figure 61: UK retail sales and forecast of large cakes (excl. seasonal/occasion cakes), by volume, 2007-17
APPENDIX – BRAND COMMUNICATIONS
Figure 62: Main monitored media advertising spend in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by media type, 2009-13
APPENDIX – CONSUMER– TYPES OF CAKES AND CAKE BARS PURCHASED/EATEN
Figure 63: Types of cakes/cake bars bought or eaten in the past six months, March 2013
Figure 64: Most popular types of cakes/cake bars eaten in the past six months, by demographics, March 2013
Figure 65: Next most popular types of cakes/cake bars eaten in the past six months, by demographics, March 2013
Figure 66: Most popular types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, by demographics, March 2013
Figure 67: Next most popular types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, by demographics, March 2013
Figure 68: Types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, by repertoire of types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, March 2013
Figure 69: Repertoire of types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, by demographics, March 2013
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – CHOICE FACTORS (NUTRITIONAL AND INGREDIENT-BASED)
Figure 70: Nutritional and ingredient-based factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, March 2013
Figure 71: Most popular nutritional and ingredient-based factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, by demographics, March 2013
Figure 72: Next popular nutritional and ingredient-based factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, by demographics, March 2013
Figure 73: Types of cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the past six months, by most popular nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, March 2013
Figure 74: Types of cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the past six months, by next most popular nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, March 2013
Figure 75: Nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors when being cake and cake bars, by most popular types of cakes/cake bars eaten in the past six months, March 2013
Figure 76: Nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, by next most popular types of cakes/cake bars eaten in the past six months, March 2013
Figure 77: Nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, by most popular types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, March 2013
Figure 78: Nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, by next most popular types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, March 2013
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – CHOICE FACTORS (NON-NUTRITIONAL AND INGREDIENT-BASED)
Figure 79: Non-nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, March 2013
Figure 80: Most popular non-nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, by demographics, March 2013
Figure 81: Next most popular non-nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, by demographics, March 2013
Figure 82: Types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, by most popular non-nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, March 2013
Figure 83: Types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, by next most popular non-nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, March 2013
Figure 84: Non-nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, by most popular types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, March 2013
Figure 85: Non-nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, by next most popular types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, March 2013
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS CAKES AND CAKE BARS
Figure 86: Attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, March 2013
Figure 87: Most popular attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, by demographics, March 2013
Figure 88: Next most popular attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, by demographics, March 2013
Figure 89: Types of cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the past six months, by most popular attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, March 2013
Figure 90: Types of cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the past six months, by next most popular attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, March 2013
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – BARRIERS TO BUYING CAKE AND CAKE BARS
Figure 91: Barriers to buying cake and cake bars, March 2013
Figure 92: Most popular barriers to buying cake and cake bars, by demographics, March 2013
Figure 93: Next most popular barriers to buying cake and cake bars, by demographics, March 2013
Figure 94: Types of cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the past six months, by most popular barriers to buying cake and cake bars, March 2013
Figure 95: Types of cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the past six months, by next most popular barriers to buying cake and cake bars, March 2013

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