Home Baking - UK - October 2012

INTRODUCTION
Definition
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: UK retail value sales of the home baking market, 2007-17
Figure 2: UK retail sales of baking ingredients, by category, 2012 (est)
Market factors
The shifting population structure presents challenges and opportunities
Figure 3: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2007-17
Consumers continue to treat themselves
Growth in the number of one-person households will suppress the market
The UK economy remains fragile
Brands come under increasing pressure from own-label
Dr. Oetker and General Mills dominate ad investment
The consumer
Britain is a nation of bakers
Figure 4: Frequency of baking at home, August 2012
Women, under-35s and ABs are the most avid bakers
Figure 5: Consumers who bake at home, by gender, age and socio-economic group, August 2012
Cakes are the most popular baked goods
Figure 6: Items baked at home in the last 12 months, August 2012
Seven in ten bakers have bought raw baking ingredients
Figure 7: Ingredients bought in the last 12 months for baking at home, August 2012
The pool of bakers has grown in the last year
Figure 8: Attitudes towards home baking, August 2012
Baking for others and economising are not key motivations
Young cooks are the most experimental and tech-savvy bakers
Enjoyment is the main motivation, and presentation is key
Figure 9: Further attitudes towards home baking, August 2012
Control over ingredients is a major allure
Baking from scratch vs using mixes
Bakers want to learn to be better
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
How is the health trend affecting the home baking market?
What impact has high-profile media coverage had on the home baking market?
To what extent is the economic downturn fuelling the home baking trend?
How can brands more effectively target men and over-45s?
TREND APPLICATION
Trend: Survival Skills
Trend: Minimize Me
2015 trend: Access Anything, Anywhere
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Six in ten are experimental cooks
Figure 10: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements regarding cooking and baking, by gender, 2012
Only a small minority can’t find the time to cook
Large numbers of adults like to treat themselves
Figure 11: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements regarding food and indulgent foods, 2008-12
High visibility in the media has heightened the profile of home baking
Growth in ABs should boost the market
Figure 12: Forecast change in adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2007-12 and 2012-17
The shifting population structure presents challenges and opportunities
Figure 13: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2007-17
Growth in the number of one-person households
Figure 14: UK households, by size, 2007-17
Rising price of commodities reflects on baking
Figure 15: RPI – all items and food, January 2007-August 2012
Will a return to growth in consumer spending dent the market?
Figure 16: PDI, consumer expenditure and savings, at constant 2012 prices, 2007-17
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES IN THE MARKET
Strengths
Weaknesses
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points
Home baking NPD peaked in 2010
Figure 17: Share of home baking product launches in all food and drink NPD, 2009-12
Brands come under increasing pressure from own-label in NPD
Figure 18: New product activity in home baking ingredients, private label vs branded, 2009-12
Supermarkets drive NPD in the first half of 2012
Figure 19: Top ten brands, by share of launches in UK home baking market, 2009-12
Range extensions account for half of NPD
Figure 20: NPD in the UK home baking market, by launch type, 2009-12
Ease of use leaps ahead in product claims
Figure 21: Top ten product claims in new launches in the home baking market, 2009-12
Innovations in sugar and sweeteners
Home baking kits aim to make baking affordable and convenient
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
The home baking market is booming
Figure 22: UK retail value sales of the home baking market, 2007-17
Continued value growth is set to prevail
Figure 23: UK retail value sales of the home baking market, 2007-17
Factors used in the forecast
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Eggs and sugar dominate
Figure 24: UK retail sales of baking ingredients, by category, 2012 (est)
Solid annual growth in the egg market
Figure 25: UK retail sales of eggs, 2007-17
Sugar is affected by high rates of inflation
Figure 26: UK retail sales of sugar and sweeteners, 2007-17
The flour and yeast market continues to grow
Figure 27: UK retail sales of flour and bread yeast, 2007-17
Sales of pastry and suet grind to a halt in 2012
Figure 28: UK retail sales of pastry and suet, 2007-17
Baking mixes are booming
Figure 29: UK retail sales of baking mixes, 2007-17
Cake coverings and decorations
Figure 30: UK retail sales of cake coverings and decorations, 2007-17
Cooking chocolate
Figure 31: UK retail sales of cooking chocolate, 2007-17
Culinary aids
Figure 32: UK retail sales of culinary aids, 2007-17
MARKET SHARE
Key point
Flour and suet
Figure 33: Brand shares in value sales of flour, MAT until August 2011 and MAT until August 2012
Sweet and savoury mixes
Figure 34: Brand shares in value sales of sweet and savoury mixes, MAT until August 2011 and MAT until August 2012
Bread mixes and yeast
Pastry
Figure 35: Brand shares in value sales of pastry, MAT until August 2011 and MAT until August 2012
Cake coverings, decorations and culinary aids
Figure 36: Brand shares in value sales of cake coverings, MAT until August 2011 and MAT until August 2012
Figure 37: Brand shares in value sales of cake decorations, MAT until August 2011 and MAT until August 2012
Figure 38: Brand shares in value sales of culinary aids, MAT until August 2011 and MAT until August 2012
Cooking chocolate
Figure 39: Brand shares in value sales of cooking chocolate, MAT until August 2011 and MAT until August 2012
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
Dr. Oetker
Doves Farm Foods
General Mills
Kerry Foods
Premier Foods
The Silver Spoon Company
Victoria Foods
BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Key points
Marked rise in adspend from 2009-11
Figure 40: Topline advertising expenditure in the UK home baking* market, 2008-11
TV commands the majority of adspend
Figure 41: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on home baking, by media type, 2008-12
Figure 42: Share of main monitored media advertising expenditure on home baking, by media type, 2008-12
Dr. Oetker and General Mills are most active
Figure 43: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on home baking, by leading brands 2008-12*
Figure 44: Share of main monitored media advertising expenditure on home baking, by leading brands, 2008-12*
THE CONSUMER – HOME BAKING HABITS
Key points
Consumers prefer to cook from scratch
Figure 45: Frequency of baking at home, August 2012
Figure 46: Consumer who bake, by gender, age and socio-economic group, August 2012
THE CONSUMER – ITEMS BAKED AT HOME
Key points
Cakes are the most popular baked foods
Figure 47: Items baked at home in the last 12 months, August 2012
Age influences baking habits
Figure 48: Consumers who have baked cakes, biscuits/cookies, homemade pizza, brownies and muffins, by age, August 2012
Figure 49: Consumers who have baked batters, sweet puddings, breads and sweet pies and tarts, by age, August 2012
Men are more likely than women to bake bread
Figure 50: Items baked at home in the last 12 months, by gender, August 2012
THE CONSUMER – BAKING INGREDIENTS PURCHASED
Key points
Raw ingredients are the most commonly purchased items
Figure 51: Ingredients bought in the last 12 months for baking at home, August 2012
Pastry is the most commonly purchased prepared item
One in four bakers have purchased cake mixes
Figure 52: Consumers who have purchased children’s cake mixes in the last 12 months, by gender, socio-economic group and presence of children, August 2012
Repertoire analysis
Figure 53: Repertoire of ingredients* bought in the last 12 months for baking at home, August 2012
Figure 54: Repertoire of ingredients bought in the last 12 months for baking at home, by gender, August 2012
THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS HOME BAKING
Key points
Over a fifth of consumers are baking more
Figure 55: Attitudes towards home baking, August 2012
Figure 56: Trends in baking habits, by age and socio-economic group, August 2012
Consumers who bake for others are in the minority
Over a quarter of bakers get recipes from the internet
Young bakers are most experimental
Cost is not the main motivation
Time is a barrier for one in six
THE CONSUMER – FURTHER ATTITUDES TOWARDS HOME BAKING
Key points
Enjoyment is the main motivation
Figure 57: Further attitudes towards home baking, August 2012
Figure 58: Further attitudes towards enjoyment of home baking, by gender and age, August 2012
Baking can be a form of art
Do mixes match up to baking from scratch?
Baking puts consumers in the driving seat
Figure 59: Further attitudes towards home baking – controlling and concern about ingredients, by gender and age, August 2012
Almost half of consumers adapt recipes to make them healthier
Cookery shows spark inspiration for baking
Figure 60: Consumers agreeing with the statement ‘Watching cookery shows inspires me to bake at home’, by age, socio-economic group and presence of children, August 2012
A desire to bake better
Figure 61: Consumers who would like to learn how to be better at baking, by age and presence of children, August 2012
Own-label is gaining trust
Figure 62: Agreement with the statement ‘I trust branded baking ingredients more than own-label’, August 2012
THE CONSUMER – TARGET GROUPS
Key points
Three target groups
Figure 63: Target groups based on attitudes towards home baking, June 2011
Eager to Learn (29%)
Premium Bakers (41%)
Health-conscious (30%)
APPENDIX – MARKET DRIVERS
Figure 64: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, 2008-12
Figure 65: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2012
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – HOME BAKING HABITS
Figure 66: Frequency of any baking at home, by demographics, August 2012
Figure 67: Frequency of baking totally from scratch (using individual raw ingredients) at home, by demographics, August 2012
Figure 68: Frequency of baking partly from scratch (using ready-prepared pastry, cake mix or bread mix) at home, by demographics, August 2012
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – ITEMS BAKED AT HOME
Figure 69: Most popular items baked at home in the last 12 months, by demographics, August 2012
Figure 70: Next most popular items baked at home in the last 12 months, by demographics, August 2012
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – BAKING INGREDIENTS PURCHASED
Figure 71: Most popular ingredients bought in the last 12 months for baking at home, by demographics, August 2012
Figure 72: Next most popular ingredients bought in the last 12 months for baking at home, by demographics, August 2012
Figure 73: Other ingredients bought in the last 12 months for baking at home, by demographics, August 2012
Figure 74: Repertoire of ingredients bought in the last 12 months for baking at home, by demographics, August 2012
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS HOME BAKING
Figure 75: Most popular attitudes towards home baking, by demographics, August 2012
Figure 76: Next most popular attitudes towards home baking, by demographics, August 2012
APPENDIX – FURTHER ATTITUDES TOWARDS HOME BAKING
Figure 77: Agreement with the statements ‘I enjoy baking at home’ and ‘How cakes look when they are finished is an important part of the enjoyment of baking’, by demographics, August 2012
Figure 78: Agreement with the statements ‘I like to bake at home so I can control the ingredients’ and ‘Using mixes is not as rewarding as baking from scratch’, by demographics, August 2012
Figure 79: Agreement with the statements ‘I'd like to learn how to be better at baking’ and ‘I worry about some of the ingredients and additives that are in shop-bought food’, by demographics, August 2012
Figure 80: Agreement with the statements ‘I like to adapt recipes when baking to make them healthier’ and ‘Watching cookery shows inspires me to bake at home’, by demographics, August 2012
Figure 81: Agreement with the statements ‘Baking at home is more expensive than buying the food from the shops’ and ‘I trust branded baking ingredients more than own-label’, by demographics, August 2012
Figure 82: Agreement with the statements ‘You can't tell the difference between food which is made from scratch or from mixes’ and ‘I buy organic ingredients where possible’, by demographics, August 2012
APPENDIX – TARGET GROUPS
Figure 83: Target groups, by demographics, August 2012
Figure 84: Attitudes towards home baking, by target groups, August 2012
Figure 85: Frequency of baking at home, by target groups, August 2012
Figure 86: Items baked at home in the last 12 months, by target groups, August 2012
Figure 87: Ingredients bought in the last 12 months for baking at home, by target groups, August 2012
Figure 88: Attitudes towards home baking, by target groups, August 2012
Figure 89: Grocery shopping habits, by target groups, August 2012
Figure 90: Attitude towards health and healthy lifestyles, by target groups, August 2012
Figure 91: Cooking and eating habits, by target groups, August 2012