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UK Retail Briefing - January 2010

ANALYST COMMENT
 A FEW THOUGHTS ABOUT CHRISTMAS
The virtues of consumer research
Actions speak louder than words
Not enough bad news to keep the media happy
Deflation in discounts as well
Paradoxes
Where next?
HEADLINES OF THE MONTH
RETAIL SALES – BACKGROUND AND OUTLOOK
Retail sales trends
Figure 1: Retail sales trends, 2008-09
Early data for December
Figure 2: UK retail sales year-on-year growth, BRC vs ONS, 2007/09
John Lewis
Figure 3: John Lewis: Year-on-year growth, 2008-10
Inflation and wages
Figure 4: RPI vs Wage rate growth, 2007-09
Record rise in Inflation
Figure 5: Annual percentage change in Retail Price Index for selected product groups, 2008-09
Looking forward
SECTOR FOCUS – CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR RETAILERS
 SALES TRENDS
Figure 6: Clothing and footwear specialist retailers, sales trends, 1999-2009
Figure 7: Deflation in clothing and footwear, 1999-2009
Sharp falls
Figure 8: Clothing and footwear retailers as % of all retail sales, 1999-2009
Sub-sectors
Figure 9: Breakdown of clothing and footwear retailers’ sales by sub-sector, 1999-2009
 RETAIL PRICE INFLATION
Figure 10: Indices of retail prices for key product categories, Jan 1998-Dec 09
 CONSUMER EXPENDITURE
Figure 11: Consumer expenditure on selected product categories, 1998-2009 (Q3)
Figure 12: Clothing retailers as % all spending on clothing, 1998-2008
Clothing sector
Figure 13: Clothing specialists: Leading retailers’ share of clothing retailers’ sales, 2007/08-2008/09
Footwear
Figure 14: Footwear specialists: Leading retailers’ share of footwear retailers’ sales, 2008
NEWS ANALYSIS
 CO-OPS (RETAIL)
Co-operative sales soar 66% over Christmas
 CONVENIENCE STORES
Costcutter reveals solid festive trading
Spar
…festive sales up 10.3%
…LFLs up 4.8%
 GROCERS
Asda
…raises the stakes in price war
…reports solid Christmas results
Ocado Christmas week sales soar 49%
Sainsbury's boasts record Christmas performance
Tesco
…enjoys strong Christmas results
…to launch mortgage market assault in 2010
 OFF-LICENCES
Majestic enjoys festive 11.7% rise in LFLs
 CLOTHING RETAILING
Mamas & Papas secures funding for expansion
New Look enjoys Christmas sales boost
Peacocks reports robust Christmas sales
Superdry-owner reports record Christmas sales
Ted Baker sales soar 19% ahead of Christmas
 MIXED GOODS RETAILING
Original Factory Shop reports bumper Christmas
Poundland festive sales rise by one third
 MULTI-SECTOR RETAILING
Laura Ashley LFLs up 4.9%
Marks & Spencer
…Christmas sales expected to edge up
…posts sales rise
Next posts sales increase
 DEPARTMENT STORES
Debenhams LFLs up 0.1%
House of Fraser enjoys record Christmas sales
John Lewis
…enjoys record Christmas sales
…enjoys strong online Christmas Clearance
Liberty attracts potential buyers
 DIY RETAILING
Topps Tiles closes Dutch operations
Wickes posts strong sales
 ELECTRICAL RETAILING
Kesa records profit increase
 CARPET RETAILING
Carpetright posts 15.8% profit increase
United Carpets sees H1 sales rise 10%
 FURNITURE RETAILING
DFS brings Boxing Day Sale forward
Habitat bought by Hilco
 HOMEWARES RETAILING
Dunelm posts strong H1 results
 HOME SHOPPING
Ideal Shopping Direct
…reveals solid FY results
Shop Direct Christmas sales up 6.3%
 MUSIC AND VIDEO GOODS RETAILING
HMV
…boss optimistic despite Waterstone's sales hit
…makes move into music festivals
 BOOKS AND STATIONERY RETAILING
Clinton Cards sees 3.6% LFL rise over Christmas
 SPORTS AND LEISURE GOODS RETAILING
Blacks Leisure sees strong Christmas trading
JD Sports posts festive LFLs rise
JJB Sports records 52% sales slump
 JEWELLERS
Theo Fennell gets X Factor boost
 TOYS AND GAMES RETAILING
Game suffers disappointing Christmas
 MISCELLANEOUS SPECIALIST RETAILING
Bidders circle Pets at Home
HobbyCraft to be put up for sale

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