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Salty Snacks - US - August 2008

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A slow growing, $15.9 billion market
Which products compete with salty snacks?
Potato chips and tortilla chips lead the market
Supermarkets are major channel for salty snacks sales
Children are an important market for snacks
Frito-Lay leads the market
New product launches
Salty snacks almost universally popular
Focus on children
Brand preferences
Opinions about salty snacks
INSIGHTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Should manufacturers stop “trying for healthy?”
100-calorie packs
“Light,” baked, and reduced-fat snacks
Don’t change the formula, change the snack
Figure 1: Sales of “healthier” salty snacks, 2006-08
Expand consumers’ perceptions of snacktime
FAST FORWARD TRENDS
 TREND: TRADING UP, TRADING DOWN, TRADING OVER
What’s it about?
Private label products substitute for “the real thing”
Figure 2: Frequency of purcahsing store branded salty snacks, January 2008
Figure 3: FDMx sales and private label sales of salty snacks, 2007 and 2008
 TREND: HYPER-PARENTING
What’s it about?
Scheduling their time and their diets?
No time to lose (weight)
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Are consumers shying away from “healthy salty snacks”?
Mainstream natural and organic products are also not faring well
Figure 4: Total U.S. sales and forecast of salty snacks at current prices, 2002-12
Figure 5: Total U.S. sales and forecast of salty snacks at inflation-adjusted prices, 2002-12
Wal-Mart sales
Convenience stores
Figure 6: Convenience store sales and forecast of salty snacks at inflation-adjusted prices, 2002-07
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Crackers, rice cakes, and other salty alternatives
Other rivals: Healthy snacks, sweet snacks, no snacks?
Figure 7: Foods chosen to satisfy craving for sweets, April 2008
Figure 8: New product launches, salty snacks with chocolate, U.S., 2003-08
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Potato chips and tortilla chips are strongest players
Figure 9: FDMx sales and forecast of salty snacks at current prices, 2002-12
Figure 10: FDMx sales of salty snacks, by segment, 2005 and 2007
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—POTATO CHIPS
Key points
Potato chip sales stumble
Figure 11: FDMx sales and forecast of potato chips, at current prices, 2002-12
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—TORTILLA CHIPS
Key points
Tortilla chips fare better than potato chips
Figure 12: FDMx sales and forecast of tortilla chips, at current prices, 2002-12
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—SNACK NUTS AND SEEDS (INCLUDING CORN NUTS)
Key points
Health halo remains strong, but sales level off
Figure 13: FDMx sales and forecast of snack nuts and seeds (including corn nuts), at current prices, 2002-12
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—POPCORN
Key points
Popcorn sales decline in light of health issues
Figure 14: FDMx sales and forecast of popcorn, at current prices, 2002-12
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—PRETZELS
Key points
Pretzels rebounded from low carb era, but sales slow again
Figure 15: FDMx sales and forecast of pretzels, at current prices, 2002-12
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—CHEESE SNACKS
Key points
“Better for you” products help sales
Figure 16: FDMx sales and forecast of cheese snacks, at current prices, 2002-12
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—CORN SNACKS
Key points
Innovation helps, but market is still flat
Figure 17: FDMx sales and forecast of corn snacks, at current prices, 2002-12
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—OTHER SALTY SNACKS
Key points
A wide range of snack options
Figure 18: FDMx sales and forecast of other salty snacks, at current prices, 2002-12
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Supermarkets are the major channel for salty snack purchases
Figure 19: Total sales of salty snacks, by retail channel, 2005 and 2007
RETAIL CHANNELS—SUPERMARKETS
Key points
Supermarket sales show flat growth
Figure 20: FDMx sales of salty snacks at supermarkets, 2002-07
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Snacking demographics
Figure 21: Household consumption of salty snacks, by key demographics, January 2007-November 2007
Figure 22: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2003-13
Children and salty snacks
Figure 23: Households, by presence of children under age 18, 1996-2006
LEADING COMPANIES
Key points
Frito-Lay products account for almost half of salty snack sales
Private label sales remain strong
A quarter of the market comprises smaller players
Figure 24: FDMx sales of leading salty snack companies, 2007 and 2008
BRAND SHARE—POTATO CHIPS
Key points
Frito-Lay products control more than half the market
Figure 25: FDMx brand sales of potato chips, 2007 and 2008
BRAND SHARE—TORTILLA CHIPS
Key points
Frito-Lay controls the segment
Figure 26: FDMx brand sales of tortilla chips, 2007 and 2008
BRAND SHARE—SNACK NUTS AND SEEDS (INCLUDING CORN NUTS)
Key points
Kraft Foods’ brands decline, while specialty players gain
Figure 27: FDMx brand sales of snack nuts and seeds (including corn nuts), 2007 and 2008
BRAND SHARE—POPCORN
Key points
ConAgra is biggest player
Healthy brands not at the forefront
Figure 28: FDMx brand sales of popcorn, 2007 and 2008
BRAND SHARE—PRETZELS
Key points
Snyder’s of Hanover grows lead over Frito-Lay
Figure 29: FDMx brand sales of pretzels, 2007 and 2008
BRAND SHARE—CHEESE SNACKS
Key point
Frito-Lay is the market leader
Figure 30: FDMx brand sales of cheese snacks, 2007 and 2008
BRAND SHARE—CORN SNACKS
Key point
Another Frito-Lay-dominated segment
Figure 31: FDMx brand sales of corn snacks, 2007 and 2008
BRAND SHARE—OTHER SALTY SNACKS
Key points
A great variety of products
Healthy snacks do well
Figure 32: FDMx brand sales of other salty snacks, 2007 and 2008
BRAND QUALITIES
Key points
How Kettle Foods woke up the potato chip market
A big two percent
“People power” flavors
INNOVATION AND INNOVATORS
Key points
Major trends in new product innovation
Most innovative
Figure 33: New product launches, salty snacks, 2002-08 (August)
Do you know your snack’s pedigree?
Focus on “healthier”
The ethics of snack food
Products for holidays … and for kids
Convenience
Flavor trends
ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION
 OVERVIEW
Snacks for health
Figure 34: Television ad for Blue Diamond, “More than a Snack,” 2008
Figure 35: Television ad for Chex Mix, 2008
Figure 36: Television ad for Emerald Nuts, 2008
Figure 37: Television ad for Flat Earth Chips, 2008
Figure 38: Television ad for Fritos, 2008
Figure 39: Television ad for SunChips, 2008
Snacks for fun
Figure 40: Television ad for Cheetos, 2008
Figure 41: Television ad for Doritos, 2008
Figure 42: Television ad for Lay’s, 2008
Figure 43: Television ad for Planters Nuts, 2008
Snacks for profit … and charity
Figure 44: Television ad for Doritos Spicy Sweet Chili Tortilla chips, 2008
Figure 45: Television ad for Lay’s chips, 2008
THE CONSUMER: HOUSEHOLD USAGE OF SALTY SNACKS
Key points
Figure 46: Personal and household usage of salty snacks, June 2008
PERSONAL USAGE OF SALTY SNACKS
Key points
Figure 47: Consumption of specific salty snacks, by age, June 2008
Figure 48: Consumption of specific salty snacks, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2008
Figure 49: Consumption of specific salty snacks, by presence of children in household, June 2008
CONSUMPTION HABITS: DAY PARTS
Key points
Figure 50: Consumption of salty snacks, by day part, by age, June 2008
Figure 51: Consumption of salty snacks, by day part, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2008
Figure 52: Consumption of salty snacks, by day part, by presence of children in household, June 2008
CONSUMPTION HABITS: FREQUENCY
Key point
Figure 53: Consumption of salty snacks, by frequency, by age, June 2008
CHILDREN AND SNACKS
Key points
When and how often kids and teens eat salty snacks
Figure 54: Frequency of consumption of salty snacks by children, June 2008
Figure 55: Teenagers’ and children’s consumption of salty snacks, by day part, June 2008
Parents’ opinions about salty snacks
Figure 56: Opinions about salty snacks and children’s diets, June 2008
BRAND PREFERENCES
Key points
Adults
Figure 57: Top Household Brand Preferences, Selected Salty Snacks, January 2007-November 2007
Teenagers
Figure 58: Top brand preferences of teenagers, selected salty snacks, January 2006-October 2006
Children
Figure 59: Top brand preferences of children, selected salty snacks, January 2006-October 2006
OPINIONS ABOUT SALTY SNACKS: FLAVORS/VARIETIES
Figure 60: Opinions about salty snacks, by age, June 2008
OPINIONS ABOUT SALTY SNACKS: HEALTH ISSUES
Key points
Figure 61: Opinions about health issues and salty snacks, by age, June 2008
CLUSTER ANALYSIS
Key points
Infrequent and invariant nibblers
All-day, frequent snackers
Solo chipsters
Demographic and attitudinal tables
Figure 62: Salty snacker clusters, June 2008
Figure 63: Personal and household usage of salty snacks, by cluster, June 2008
Figure 64: Consumption of salty snacks, by day part and cluster, June 2008
Figure 65: Personal frequency of salty snack consumption, by cluster, June 2008
Figure 66: Attitudes towards and behaviors about salty snacks, by cluster, June 2008
Figure 67: Salty snacker clusters, by gender, June 2008
Figure 68: Salty snacker clusters, by age group, June 2008
Figure 69: Salty snacker clusters, by Hispanic origin, June 2008
Cluster methodology
CUSTOM CONSUMER GROUPS
Key points
Dads vs. Moms
Figure 70: Kids’ snack consumption, as reported by parents, June 2008
Figure 71: Frequency of consumption of salty snacks by children, Dads’ and Moms’ responses, June 2008
Figure 72: Teenagers’ and children’s consumption of salty snacks, by day part, as reported by Dads vs. Moms, June 2008
Figure 73: Opinions about salty snacks and children’s diets, Dads vs. Moms, June 2008
IRI/BUILDERS PANEL DATA
Consumer insights—salty snacks
Potato chips
Brand leaders by penetration
Tortilla/tostada chips
Brand leaders by penetration
Figure 74: Key purchase measures for the top potato chip and tortilla/tostada chip brands, by household penetration, *2007
Snack nuts
Brand leaders by penetration
Figure 75: Key purchase measures for snack nut brands, by household penetration*
APPENDIX: IRI/BUILDERS PANEL DATA DEFINITIONS
IRI Consumer Network Metrics
APPENDIX: OTHER USEFUL CONSUMER TABLES
Personal consumption of salty snacks by income
Figure 76: Consumption of specific salty snacks, by income, June 2008
Frequency of consuming salty snacks (per week)
Figure 77: Consumption of salty snacks, by frequency, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2008
Figure 78: Consumption of salty snacks, by frequency, by presence of children in household, June 2008
Opinions about salty snacks
Figure 79: Opinions about salty snacks, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2008
Figure 80: Opinions about salty snacks, by income, June 2008
Figure 81: Opinions about salty snacks, by presence of children in household, June 2008
Figure 82: Opinions about health issues and salty snacks, by gender, June 2008
APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

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