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Cider - UK - October 2004

INTRODUCTION AND ABBREVIATIONS
Definition
Consumer research
ACORN
Advertising data
 ABBREVIATIONS
PREMIER INSIGHT
Changing consumer perceptions is the key challenge facing the cider industry
Stop ignoring the female cider drinker
Dragging cider into the 21st century
Cider with macho appeal
Surprise the cider sceptics with a new dry approach
Respecting core values and loyal customer base
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Economic conditions are good, pity about the weather
Industry threats
Market continues in decline
Image is everything
Authenticity is the path to premium
Price promotions hit advertising spends
Multiple grocers take an increasing share
Future demands more profitable volume sales
MARKET DRIVERS
Cider loses out on the fashion stakes
The premium effect
Turn up the heat to promote sales
Health and diet warnings
Frequency of drinking alcohol
Figure 1: Frequency of drinking alcohol at home and elsewhere, 1999-2004
Tax and duty
The means to an end
Figure 2: Trends and projections in PDI and consumer expenditure, at current and constant prices, 1999-2008
The influence of population
Figure 3: Trends and projections in UK population, by age group, 1999-2008
MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS
A declining market
Figure 4: UK retail sales of cider, by volume and value, 1999-2004
Clear price segmentation on the cards
Figure 5: Mean price of cider per litre, 1999-2004
Increased consumption – but only among cider fans
Figure 6: Cider's share of the UK's consumption of alcoholic drinks, by volume, 1992-2002
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Premium only sector showing growth
Figure 7: UK retail sales of cider, by type and volume, 2000-04
Value trends mirror volume
Figure 8: UK retail sales of cider, by type and value, 2000-04
Sweet and dry retail sales in the UK
Figure 9: UK retail sales of ciders: sweet versus dry, by volume, 2000-04
White cider
Sparkling cider
Low-alcohol/low-carbohydrate
Premium own-label/other
Organic
Crafted ciders
Varietals
Imported
Flavoured
Price of a pint in the on-trade
Figure 10: The price of a pint of cider, by region, 2003
THE SUPPLY STRUCTURE
Strongbow dominates
Figure 11: UK leading cider brands in the on- and off-trade, by volume and value, 2003
Figure 12: UK leading cider brands in the on-trade, by value, 2003
Fragmented off-trade
Figure 13: UK leading cider brands in the off-trade, by value, 2003
Price promotions hurt smallest brands most
On-trade brand shares
Figure 14: Top five cider brand shares in the on-trade, by value, 2000-04
Off-trade brand shares
Figure 15: Top ten cider brand shares in the off-trade, by value, 2000-04
 COMPANIES AND BRANDS
Aspall
Aston Manor Brewery Co.
Ballygowan
Constellation Europe
Headford Ridge
Merrydown
Scottish & Newcastle
R. J. Sheppy
Thatchers Cider Company
H. Weston & Sons
Others
NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT
 NEW PRODUCT BRIEFS
September 2004
August 2004
July 2004
June 2004
May 2004
ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION
Creating awareness and reinforcing brand identity
Figure 16: UK main monitored media advertising expenditure on cider, 1999-2004
S&N dominates adspend
Figure 17: UK main monitored media advertising expenditure on major cider brands, 2001 and 2003
Figure 18: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on cider, by major brand owners, 1999-2003
 SELECTED CAMPAIGNS
Aspall
Aston Manor Brewery Co.
Ballygowan
Constellation Europe
Merrydown
Scottish Courage
R. J. Sheppy
Thatchers Cider Company
Others
 BELOW-THE-LINE RETAIL PROMOTIONS
Figure 19: Examples of below-the-line promotions, September/October 2004
Figure 20: Number of promotions in the last six months, Jan-June 2004
DISTRIBUTION
On-trade suffers attrition
Figure 21: UK retail sales of cider, by volume and type of outlet, 2000-04
Shrinking shelf space
Figure 22: UK retail sales of packaged and draught cider, by value, 2000-04
Figure 23: UK retail sales of packaged and draught cider, by volume, 2000-04
Packaging
Premium bottled cider losing out in on-trade
Figure 24: UK volume sales of cider, by trade sector and packaging type, 2000-04
The Internet
THE CONSUMER
 CIDER DRINKERS – WEIGHT OF USAGE
Figure 25: Frequency of drinking cider, 1998-2004
Age – the key determinant
Figure 26: Frequency of drinking cider, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, 2004
Figure 27: Frequency of drinking cider, by marital status, working status and region, 2004
 IN-HOME CIDER CONSUMPTION
Figure 28: Frequency of drinking cider in-home, 1998-2004
In-home consumption follows similar pattern
Figure 29: Frequency of drinking cider in-home, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, 2004
Figure 30: Frequency of drinking cider in-home, by marital status, working status and region, 2004
 OUT-OF-HOME CIDER CONSUMPTION
Figure 31: Frequency of drinking cider elsewhere, 1998-2004
Clearly a male-dominated category
Figure 32: Frequency of drinking cider elsewhere, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, 2004
Figure 33: Frequency of drinking cider elsewhere, by marital status, working status and retion, 2004
 TYPE OF CIDER
Figure 34: Type of cider consumed, 2004
THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS CIDER AND DRINK REPERTOIRES
Underlying attitudes towards cider
Figure 35: Reasons for drinking more cider, June 2004
Assessing potential for target expansion
Both genders comprise key targets
Figure 36: Potential drinkers, by gender, age and socio-economic group, June 2004
A high income influence?
Figure 37: Potential drinkers, by lifestage, Mintel’s Special Groups and presence of children, June 2004
Working status plays a role
Figure 38: Potential drinkers, by marital status, working status and region, June 2004
Internet presents possibilities
Figure 39: Potential drinkers, by media usage, supermarket usage and commercial TV viewing, June 2004
 REPERTOIRE DRINKING
Figure 40: Repertoire drinking, by type of drink, June 2004
Drinking habits by type of alcohol
Figure 41: Attitudes towards alcohol and drinking, by types of drinks consumed, 2004
Drinking frequency by type of alcohol
Figure 42: Frequency of drinking alcohol, by types of drinks consumed, 2004
THE FUTURE
Will smoking be banned in mainland Britain?
New licensing legislation operative in 2005
Launch of a new quality mark
New television regulations for advertising
EU threat to orchards
Food with cider
Minimum pricing directives
FORECAST
Figure 43: Forecast of the UK cider market, by value, 2004-09
Cider has style issues
NPD has a significant role to play
Figure 44: Forecast of the UK cider market, by volume, 2004-09
Advertisements will help future growth
Factors used in the forecast

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