British Lifestyles - UK - November 2020

OVERVIEW
Key issues covered in this Report
COVID-19: market context
Economic and other assumptions
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Impact of COVID-19 on total consumer spending 
Figure 1: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on consumer spending, 15 October 2020
Britain today
The people
The economy
Figure 2: Quarter-on-quarter change in GDP, Q1 2012-Q2 2020
The COVID-19 outbreak
Figure 3: Recorded daily number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and deaths registered as relating to the virus, 31 December-5 November 2020
Vaccine hopes increase
Consumers’ response to the EU referendum
The market
Consumer spending plummets in 2020
Figure 4: Market size and forecast for total consumer spending, 2015-25
A long road to recovery
What learnings can be taken from the last recession?
The consumer 
Consumer anxiety traces case numbers
Figure 5: Mintel COVID-19 exposure anxiety and lifestyle impact index, 28 February-11 November 2020
Life has shifted in home
Figure 6: In-home leisure activities people did as a result of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, 9-16 April 2020
Consumers remain anxious about crowded spaces 
Figure 7: How comfortable people would feel participating in selected leisure activities, 24 September-1 October 2020
A new set of priorities emerge
Figure 8: Changes in priorities since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, 8-19 October 2020
THE PEOPLE
Population growth will slow
Figure 9: Trends in the UK population, 1993-2043
An ageing population 
Figure 10: Population, by age group, UK, 1966-2041
Death rates to surge in 2020
Figure 11: Annual number of deaths in the UK, 2005-20^
Birth rates continue to fall
Figure 12: Trends in the number of live births, England and Wales, 2000-18
THE ECONOMY
UK enters deepest recession on record…
Figure 13: Quarter-on-quarter change in GDP, Q1 2012-Q2 2020
…with the speed of economic recovery dependent on what happens next
The labour market
Figure 14: Unemployment rate, aged 16 and over, January 2008-August 2020
Real wage growth plummets
Figure 15: Headline CPIH inflation (12-month percentage change), vs average weekly earnings (3-month average), February 2015-August 2020
Financial confidence slips…
Figure 16: Financial wellbeing index, February 2009-September 2020
…but confidence for the year ahead continues to ebb
Figure 17: The financial confidence index, January 2009-October 2020
CONSUMERS’ RESPONSE TO THE EU REFERENDUM
Terse Brexit trade negotiations slow
Anxiety remains high for Brexit implications
Figure 18: Level of concern over the impact of the EU referendum, July 2016-October 2020
COVID-19 intensifies concerns
Figure 19: Consumer views on the impact of the EU referendum, October 2020
THE COVID-19 TIMELINE
Phase 1 – January-March: coronavirus arrives in the UK
Figure 20: Recorded daily number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and deaths registered as relating to the virus, 31 December-5 November 2020
Phase 2 – April: cases and deaths reach a peak
Figure 21: Recorded daily number of deaths registered as relating to the virus, 31 December-5 November 2020
Phase 3 – May-August: falling case numbers soften lockdown measures
Phase 4 – September-October: wave 2 takes hold in autumn
Figure 22: Government three-tier COVID-19 alert system
Phase 5: October-present: a return to lockdown
Hopes centre on vaccine development
UK outbreak and lockdown in context
Figure 23: Cumulative figures for total case numbers and deaths in the EU/EEA and the UK, 31 January-5 November 2020
THE MARKET – KEY TAKEAWAYS
Consumer spending plummets in 2020
Foodservice, leisure and travel worst hit…
…but food and drink sales benefit from shift in home
A long road to recovery
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
COVID-19 drives sharp downturn in consumer spending 
Figure 24: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on consumer spending, 10 November 2020
Consumer spending plummets in 2020
Figure 25: Total UK consumer spending, 2015-25
The long road to recovery
Market drivers and assumptions
Figure 26: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecasts, 2015-25, 15 October 2020
What happened in the last recession?
Sharp cutbacks in some areas of spend
‘Treat culture’ supported spend on premium products
A continued shift to the experience economy
A long-lasting impact on confidence, trust and spending
Figure 27: Total consumer spending, 2007-12
What learnings can be taken from the last recession?
Forecast methodology
MARKET SEGMENTATION 
Housing costs dominate consumer outgoings
Figure 28: Consumer expenditure, by sector (£ billion), estimated, 2020
Lockdown damages leisure and foodservice market…
Figure 29: Percentage change in spending levels, by category, 2019-20
…but benefits some FMCG categories
Figure 30: Projected growth in retail spend on food, alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks, 2019-20
British desire for holidays offers hope for embattled holidays market
Figure 31: Projected percentage change in spending levels, by category, 2020-25
FOOD (RETAIL MARKET) 
What we think
Short-, medium- and long-term impact on the industry
Figure 32: Expected impact of COVID-19 on the food retail market; short-, medium- and long-term impact, November 2020
Impact on the market
Economising habits keep a lid on in-home food growth
Figure 33: UK central forecast value sales of the food retail market, at current prices, 2015-25
Sales are predicted to fall back in 2021
Opportunities 
Immune-boosting claims set to remain popular 
Niche channels become an increasingly important revenue stream 
Keen interest to keep cooking at home more 
The desire to support local enterprises could be lasting
Reassessing Mintel predictions 
Figure 34: Assessing Mintel’s early COVID-19 predictions for retail food sales, November 2020
Winning sub-categories in 2020
Frozen and ambient food in high demand
Dairy and meat experienced surge in demand 
Losing sub-categories in 2020 
On-the-go dented by shift to in home
Ready meals lose out as more cook at home during COVID-19
How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the industry
Value to become a greater consideration…
…with private label set to benefit further 
Cutbacks on eating out likely to boost retail food sales
Increased demand for health 
Proactive environmentally friendly habits will rebound
Impact on key consumer groups
Family shoppers to be particularly price-sensitive
Older shoppers increasingly embrace online retail channels 
Concerns about unhealthy eating and weight gain keenest amongst the young
NON-ALCOHOLIC DRINKS (RETAIL MARKET)
What we think
Short-, medium- and long-term impact on the industry
Figure 35: Expected impact of COVID-19 on the non-alcoholic drinks retail market; short-, medium- and long-term impact, November 2020
Impact on the market
Retail sales rose as foodservice outlets were forced to close
Figure 36: UK central forecast value sales of the non-alcoholic drinks retail market, at current prices, 2015-25
Sales slowdown expected in 2021 as on-trade channels regain ground
Opportunities 
Green behaviours to return with renewed vigour
Immune system-boosting ingredients 
Premiumisation in hot drinks
Reassessing Mintel predictions 
Figure 37: Assessing Mintel’s COVID-19 predictions for retail sales of non-alcoholic drinks, November 2020
Winning sub-categories in 2020
Hot drinks get a big boost from COVID-19
The rise in at-home alcohol drinking is a boon for mixers
Cordials, squashes and juices do well
Losing sub-categories in 2020 
SMEs to struggle
Bottled water sales slump
Sport and energy drinks
How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the industry
Price to become an even greater consideration…
…but this could prove a boon for retail 
A re-energised alcohol moderation drive will benefit sales
Impact on key consumer groups
The younger generation’s lifestyles to be less on-the-go
Value for money will be most important to family shoppers
ALCOHOLIC DRINKS (RETAIL MARKET)
What we think
Short-, medium- and long-term impact on the industry
Figure 38: Expected impact of COVID-19 on the alcoholic drinks retail market; short-, medium- and long-term impact, November 2020
Impact on the market
Retail sales of alcohol grow as pubs, bars and restaurants close… 
Figure 39: UK central forecast value sales of the alcoholic drinks retail market, at current prices, 2015-25
…with slow recovery anticipated 
Reassessing Mintel predictions 
Figure 40: Assessing Mintel’s COVID-19 predictions for retail sales of alcoholic drinks, November 2020
Opportunities
Low- and non-alcoholic drinks to remain a key trend  
Hard seltzers target calorie-conscious drinkers
Local premium drinks brands should make the most of interest in buying local
Winning sub-categories in 2020
Beer and wine retail sales boosted by pub closures and good weather 
Sales of gin keep on growing through pandemic
RTDs boosted by ongoing NPD
Losing sub-categories in 2020 
Champagne and sparkling wines lose their fizz 
Cognac sales continue to fall
How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the industry
Recession triggered by COVID-19 poses a big risk to drinks spending
Premium own-label alcoholic drinks and discounters in good position to benefit
‘Savvy luxuries’ will steal a march
Impact on key consumer groups
18-24s emerge as moderate drinkers
Targeting the older population, more insulated from the recession, is timely
BEAUTY AND PERSONAL CARE
What we think
Short-, medium- and long-term impact on the industry
Figure 41: Expected impact of COVID-19 on the beauty and personal care market; short-, medium- and long term impact, November 2020
Impact on the market
Severe disruptions in 2020….
Figure 42: UK central forecast value sales of the beauty and personal care market, 2015-25
…with slow recovery anticipated 
Opportunities
Masstige brands offer a new price tier
Align ‘clean beauty’ with health and immunity
Communicate self-care 
Reassessing Mintel predictions 
Figure 43: Assessing Mintel’s COVID-19 predictions for beauty and personal care, November 2020
Winning sub-categories in 2020
Women’s facial skincare
Hand, body and footcare
Losing sub-categories in 2020 
Colour cosmetics
Fragrances
How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the industry
Rethink value to drive repeat purchase 
Redefine luxury
Online strategies need refining
Impact on key consumer groups
16-24s to cut back as finances are impacted 
Women to edge away from appearance goals 
A bigger shift to ‘conscious consumerism’
OTC AND PHARMACEUTICALS 
What we think
Short-, medium- and long-term impact on the industry
Figure 44: Expected impact of COVID-19 on the OTC and pharmaceuticals market; short-, medium- and long-term impact, November 2020
Impact on the market
Healthcare stabilises as consumers stock up 
Figure 45: UK central forecast value sales of the OTC and pharmaceuticals market, at current prices, 2015-25
Recession could cause slowdown in growth 
Opportunities
Encourage self-care behaviours
Focus on immunity
Reassessing Mintel predictions 
Figure 46: Assessing Mintel’s COVID-19 predictions for the OTC and pharmaceuticals market, November 2020
Winning sub-categories in 2020
Cough, cold and flu remedies
Vitamins and supplements
Losing sub-categories in 2020 
Sexual health
How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the industry
Health will be a bigger priority
Pharmacies will rise in prominence
Impact on key consumer groups
Young people are prioritising their health
Over-65s will experience longer social distancing measures
HOUSEHOLD CARE
What we think
Short-, medium- and long-term impact on the industry
Figure 47: Expected impact of COVID-19 on the household care products market; short-, medium- and long-term impact, November 2020
Impact on the market
Household care sales spike on hygiene fears 
Figure 48: UK central forecast value sales of the household care market, at current prices, 2015-25
The home environment takes on more importance
Own-label set to make further gains 
Opportunities
Opportunities for further growth in own-label 
Promote health beyond hygiene
Increase transparency to boost eco credentials
Reassessing Mintel predictions 
Figure 49: Assessing Mintel’s COVID-19 predictions for the household care market, November 2020
Winning sub-categories in 2020
Hard surface cleaners
Dishwashing products
Paper products
Losing sub-categories in 2020 
Laundry detergents
How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the industry
Further cutbacks in spending will be much harder
Own-labels will step in to appeal to those trading down
Impact on key consumer groups
Hygiene concerns to remain high among vulnerable older population 
Parents to take holistic approach to household hygiene 
Younger consumers learn a lot about the category
HOLIDAYS
What we think
Short-, medium- and long-term impact on the industry
Figure 50: Expected impact of COVID-19 on the holidays market; short-, medium- and long-term impact, October 2020
Impact on the market
Travel industry has faced its biggest challenge in history with overseas travel taking the biggest hit
Figure 51: UK central forecast value sales of domestic^^ and overseas^ holidays taken by UK residents, at current prices, 2015-25
The recovery will be slow but the long-term outlook remains positive
Opportunities
Marketing that focuses on escapism will appeal
Perceptions of value to transcend price, as consumers look for safety information before booking
New way of working provides opportunities to cater for working holidays
Investments in customer service necessary to keep trust levels high 
Reassessing Mintel predictions 
Figure 52: Assessing Mintel’s COVID-19 predictions for the holidays market, November 2020
Winning sub-categories in 2020
Holiday rental properties
Losing sub-categories in 2020 
Cruises 
Business travel
How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the industry
Travellers will be more price-sensitive
Consumers likely to cut back on short breaks
Price of holidaying likely to rise once demand bounces back
Impact on key consumer groups
Younger generation will play a key role in recovery of hardest-hit segments
Family holidays will be prioritised, but safety and value will be key
Over-55s likely to cut back on travel, stay closer to home or drive to neighbouring countries
Luxury travellers in a better position to afford exclusive travel
LEISURE
What we think
Short-, medium- and long-term impact on the industry
Figure 53: Expected impact of COVID-19 on the leisure market; short-, medium- and long-term impact, November 2020
Impact on the market
Leisure sector sees sharp decline 
Figure 54: UK central forecast value sales for the leisure market, at current prices, 2015-25
Recovery may be too slow for many venues
Opportunities
Technology will bridge the gap between in-home and out-of-home leisure
Social restrictions boost demand for private and exclusive experiences 
Reassessing Mintel predictions 
Figure 55: Assessing Mintel’s COVID-19 predictions for the leisure market, November 2020
Winning sub-categories in 2020
Digital fitness
Online gambling
Losing sub-categories in 2020 
Music concerts and festivals
Cinemas
Nightclubs
How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the industry
Online is an extension not a replacement
Impact on key consumer groups
Youth unemployment presents major threat to leisure markets
FOODSERVICE 
What we think
Short-, medium- and long-term impact on the industry
Figure 56: Expected impact of COVID-19 on the foodservice market; short-, medium- and long-term impact, November 2020
Impact on the market
Value of foodservice sector plunges in 2020
Figure 57: UK central forecast value sales for the foodservice market, at current prices, 2015-25
Sharp recovery expected after record decline in market value  
Opportunities
New distribution channels
Pop-ups in local neighbourhoods
Optimising kitchen capabilities
Reassessing Mintel predictions 
Figure 58: Assessing Mintel’s COVID-19 predictions for the foodservice market, November 2020
Winning sub-categories in 2020
Quick-service restaurants (QSRs)
Dark kitchens
Losing sub-categories in 2020 
Wet-led pubs/bars
Lunchtime sandwich shops/food-to-go outlets
How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the industry
Value-added deals
Suburban/rural areas
An occasional treat 
Impact on key consumer groups
Under-35s living with parents
Parents of under-18s
Over-45s
TRANSPORT
What we think
Short-, medium- and long-term impact on the industry
Figure 59: Expected impact of COVID-19 on the transport market; short-, medium- and long-term impact, November 2020
Impact on the market
Car sales slump as consumers shun big-ticket purchases…
Figure 60: UK central forecast value sales for the transport market, at current prices, 2015-25
…with slow recovery anticipated 
Opportunities
Reimagining the car buying experience during COVID-19 pandemic
Avoidance of public transport an opportunity to target non-car owners 
Scope for onboard entertainment and wellness services
Reassessing Mintel predictions 
Figure 61: Assessing Mintel’s COVID-19 predictions for the transport market, November 2020
Winning sub-categories in 2020
Hybrid and EVs 
Used cars
Losing sub-categories in 2020 
Diesel cars
Airlines
How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the industry
Accelerated shift to pure electric and hybrid cars
Renewed interest in online sales
Companies will cut back on business travel 
Travellers by plane expected to prioritise value in the short to medium term
Impact on key consumer groups
COVID-19-induced financial hardship cause younger car buyers to choose used over new
Older drivers still need convincing to switch to electric
Younger generation will lead the recovery of travel by plane
FASHION
What we think
Short-, medium- and long-term impact on the industry
Figure 62: Expected impact of COVID-19 on the clothing and footwear market; short-, medium- and long-term impact, November 2020
Impact on the market
Drop in appetite for fashion 
Figure 63: UK central forecast value sales for the fashion market, at current prices, 2015-25
Recovery will be gradual, with store closures inevitable 
Opportunities 
Face masks
Investment in digital fit technology
Reassessing Mintel predictions 
Figure 64: Assessing Mintel’s COVID-19 predictions for the fashion market, November 2020
Winning sub-categories in 2020
Underwear, nightwear and loungewear
Sportswear
Losing sub-categories in 2020 
Womenswear
Footwear
Luxury fashion
How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the industry
Value retailers will benefit at expense of mid-market 
Greater shift towards online
Impact on key consumer groups
Women most concerned
Young generations shun fashion trends
HOME AND GARDEN 
What we think
Short-, medium- and long-term impact on the industry
Figure 65: Expected impact of COVID-19 on the home and garden market; short-, medium- and long-term impact, November 2020
Impact on the market
Spending will drop amid uncertainty… 
Figure 66: UK central forecast value sales for the home and garden market, at current prices, 2015-25
…before a more convincing recovery in 2021
Opportunities
Online home sales to boom 
Extended periods inside will push the home up the agenda
The shift to working from home brings a new wave of demand
Smaller businesses benefit from an increased sense of localism 
Winning sub-categories in 2020
Big-box DIY specialists 
Home office furniture 
Small domestic appliances 
Garden products 
Losing sub-categories in 2020 
Kitchens and bathroom 
Big-ticket furniture 
How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the industry
A slowdown in the housing market
Suppressed appetite for big-ticket purchases
A renewed focus on value 
HOUSING
What we think
Short-, medium- and long-term impact on the industry
Figure 67: Expected impact of COVID-19 on housing; short-, medium- and long-term impact, November 2020
Impact on the market
A sharp drop in mortgage lending will reduce overall housing spend
Figure 68: UK central forecast for consumer expenditure in housing market, at current prices, 2015-25
Recovery depends on the resilience of the housing market
Opportunities
First-time buyers set to benefit from renewed government support
Fixing consumer finances is a challenge and opportunity for lenders
How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the industry
Rising unemployment will threaten household finances
Housing market dynamics will shift
Impact on key consumer groups
Young adults will be most impacted
PERSONAL FINANCE 
What we think
Short-, medium- and long-term impact on the industry
Figure 69: Expected impact of COVID-19 on personal finance; short-, medium- and long-term impact, November 2020
Impact on the market
Consumer credit falls sharply but savings are boosted
Figure 70: UK central forecast for consumer expenditure on personal finance, at current prices, 2015-25
A steady recovery is anticipated from 2021
Opportunities
The shift to digital banking will help to drive cost efficiencies
Flexible credit products will move to the fore
Products that deliver reassurance will resonate with consumers
How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the industry
Support measures will pose a challenge to banks
Insurers face longer-term challenges
Impact on key consumer groups
Older Millennials looking for flexible credit
A formative experience for Gen Z
TECHNOLOGY AND MEDIA
What we think
Short-, medium- and long-term impact on the industry
Figure 71: Expected impact of COVID-19 on the technology market; short-, medium- and long-term impact, November 2020
Figure 72: Expected impact of COVID-19 on the media market; short-, medium- and long-term impact, November 2020
Impact on the market
Tech and media markets proving resilient in 2020
Figure 73: UK central forecast for value sales of technology and media, at current prices, 2015-25
Return to growth expected in 2021
Opportunities
Companies can connect more closely with consumers online
Trusted news sources can boost subscribers
Focus on mental health and wellbeing provides opportunities for tech
Video calling boom can give manufacturers a new focus
Reassessing Mintel predictions 
Figure 74: Assessing Mintel’s COVID-19 predictions for technology and media expenditure, November 2020
Winning sub-categories in 2020
Video games consoles
Streaming subscriptions
Losing sub-categories in 2020 
Print media
Televisions
How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the industry
Suppressed hardware sales inevitable but tech cycles can provide some resilience
Reduced advertising spend will hit all media sectors
Impact on key consumer groups
Older consumers turning to tech
Men’s enthusiasm for tech sees them less inclined to cut spending
Families have more need than ever for technology and media
Changes in older demographics’ media habits likely to stick 
THE CONSUMER – KEY TAKEAWAYS
Phase 1: 28 February-9 April – Consumers Go into Lockdown
Phase 2: 9 April-18 June – Adapting to Life in Lockdown 
Phase 3: 18 June-28 August – Emerging from the Initial Lockdown 
Phase 4: 28 August-19 October – Consumers and the Next Wave 
PHASE 1: 28 FEBRUARY-9 APRIL – CONSUMERS GO INTO LOCKDOWN
Surge in consumer anxiety
Figure 75: Mintel COVID-19 exposure anxiety and lifestyle impact index, 28 February-11 November 2020
Change in attitude most marked among older consumers
Figure 76: Changes in the proportion of adults indicating extreme levels of concern (‘5’) about being exposed to the coronavirus, by age within gender, 28 February-25 March 2020
Consumers adopted pro-hygiene behaviours as virus spread
COVID-19 has triggered a need for NPD in the BPC market
Figure 77: Behavioural changes made as a result of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, 28 February-9 April 2020
A renewed enthusiasm for household care…
Figure 78: (Unilever) Domestos’ ‘What is the science behind bleach?’ campaign, March 2020
…with demand for eco-friendly solutions only likely to grow
Shoppers stocked up as wartime mentality set in…
Figure 79: Behavioural changes made as a result of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, 28 February-9 April 2020
…giving an opportunity to refresh the ambient food sector
Online retail became an essential channel
Figure 80: Proportion of adults who have increased the amount of shopping they do online as a result of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, by age, 28 February-9 April 2020
PHASE 2: 9 APRIL-18 JUNE – ADAPTING TO LIFE IN LOCKDOWN 
Consumer anxiety starts to soften
Figure 81: Mintel COVID-19 exposure anxiety and lifestyle impact index, 28 February-11 November 2020
Middle-aged groups continued to worry about their lifestyle 
Figure 82: Proportion of adults indicating extreme concern (‘5’) about how the outbreak might impact their lifestyle, by age, 9 April-18 June 2020
Home cooking booms 
Figure 83: In-home leisure activities people did as a result of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, 9-16 April 2020
Surge in home workouts 
Figure 84: In-home leisure activities people did as a result of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, by age, 9-16 April 2020
Digital communication becomes a necessity 
Strain on consumer finances begins to show… 
Figure 85: Changes in financial situation since the start of the outbreak, by age within gender, 21-28 May 2020
…with less affluent households worst affected 
Figure 86: Changes in financial situation since the start of the outbreak, by household income, 21-28 May 2020
PHASE 3: 18 JUNE-28 AUGUST – EMERGING FROM THE INITIAL LOCKDOWN 
Anxiety plateaued as consumers returned to life out of home
Figure 87: Mintel COVID-19 exposure anxiety and lifestyle impact index, 28 February-11 November 2020
Protective shopping behaviours became habit…
Figure 88: Changes in shopping behaviours since the start of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, 16 April-28 August 2020
…accelerating the shift away from cash
Packaging became critical…
Figure 89: Consumer attitudes towards product packaging during COVID-19 outbreak, 18-24 June 2020
…paving the way for hygiene-focused innovation
Environmental concerns will remain a challenge for packaging industry 
PHASE 4: 28 AUGUST-19 OCTOBER – CONSUMERS AND THE NEXT WAVE 
Anxiety takes off as cases go back up
Figure 90: Mintel COVID-19 exposure anxiety and lifestyle impact index, 28 February-11 November 2020
Anxiety climbs across all age groups
Figure 91: Proportion of adults registering higher levels of concern (ie ‘4’ or ‘5’) about being exposed to the virus and about how it could impact their lifestyle, by age, 27 August-11 November 2020
Consumers anxious about crowded spaces 
Figure 92: How comfortable people would feel participating in selected leisure activities, 24 September-1 October 2020
Troubles remain for travel industry
Opportunities to reassure travellers
Figure 93: Airbnb’s Enhanced Cleaning Protocol for UK hosts, 19 June 2020
Majority of Brits consider masks important in public spaces… 
Figure 94: Situations people consider it important to wear face masks/coverings, 10-17 September 2020
…posing opportunities for fashion… 
Figure 95: Burberry launches £90 facial mask, September 2020
…and beauty brands
Spending intentions remain low
Figure 96: Expected changes in spending habits in the coming month, by category, 8-19 October 2020
A NEW SET OF PRIORITIES EMERGE 
A new set of priorities emerge
Family and friends; balancing online and real-world connections 
Figure 97: Changes in priorities since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, 8-19 October 2020
Health and wellbeing trend to further grow… 
…with a growing focus on mental wellbeing 
A re-emergence of community 
Figure 98: Changes in shopping behaviours since the start of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, 16 April-11 November 2020
Sustainably concerns to return to the fore
Figure 99: L’Oréal and TerraCycle beauty packaging recycling initiative, September 2020
HOW COVID-19 HAS DRIVEN BROADER CONSUMER TRENDS
Mintel Trend Drivers
Initial lockdown (March-June 2020)
Figure 100: Key Mintel Trend Drivers and Pillars during the ‘lockdown’ phase, March-June 2020
Re-emergence (July 2020-December 2021)
Figure 101: Key Mintel Trend Drivers and Pillars during the ‘re-emergence’ phase, July 2020-December 2021
Recovery (2022-25)
Figure 102: Key Mintel Trend Drivers and Pillars during the ‘recovery’ phase, 2022-25
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology
Forecast methodology
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Figure 103: Market size and forecast for total consumer spending, at current and constant prices, £ million, 2015-25
Figure 104: Market size and forecast for total consumer spending, at current and constant prices, £ trillion, 2015-25
APPENDIX – FOOD (RETAIL MARKET)
Figure 105: UK retail value sales of food (retail market), at current and constant prices, 2015-25
APPENDIX – NON-ALCOHOLIC DRINKS (RETAIL MARKET)
Figure 106: UK retail value sales of non-alcoholic drinks (retail market), at current and constant prices, 2015-25
APPENDIX – ALCOHOLIC DRINKS (RETAIL MARKET) 
Figure 107: UK retail value sales of alcoholic drinks (retail market), at current and constant prices, 2015-25
APPENDIX – BEAUTY AND PERSONAL CARE 
Figure 108: UK retail value sales of beauty and personal care products, at current and constant prices, 2015-25
APPENDIX – OTC AND PHARMACEUTICALS
Figure 109: UK retail value sales of OTC and pharmaceuticals, at current and constant prices, 2015-25
APPENDIX – HOUSEHOLD CARE
Figure 110: UK retail value sales of household care products, at current and constant prices, 2015-25
APPENDIX – HOLIDAYS
Figure 111: Value of UK holiday spending, at current and constant prices, 2015-25
APPENDIX – LEISURE
Figure 112: Value of UK leisure spending, at current and constant prices, 2015-25
APPENDIX – FOODSERVICE
Figure 113: Value of UK foodservice spending, at current and constant prices, 2015-25
APPENDIX – TRANSPORT
Figure 114: Value of UK transport market, at current and constant prices, 2015-25
APPENDIX – FASHION 
Figure 115: UK retail value sales of clothing and accessories, at current and constant prices, 2015-25
APPENDIX – HOME AND GARDEN
Figure 116: UK retail value sales of home and garden products, at current and constant prices, 2015-25
APPENDIX – NEWSAGENTS’ GOODS 
Figure 117: UK retail value sales of newsagents’ goods, at current and constant prices, 2015-25
APPENDIX – HOUSING
Figure 118: UK housing market spending, at current and constant prices, 2015-25
APPENDIX – PERSONAL FINANCE
Figure 119: UK retail value sales of personal finance products, at current and constant prices, 2015-25
APPENDIX – TECHNOLOGY AND MEDIA 
Figure 120: UK retail value sales of technology and communication products, at current and constant prices, 2015-25
APPENDIX – MISCELLANEOUS EXPENDITURE
Figure 121: Miscellaneous expenditure, at current and constant prices, 2015-25