Cough, Cold, Flu and Allergy Remedies - US - April 2018

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The market
Record-setting flu season drives strong 2017-18 sales and market growth
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2012-22
The issues
Emphasis on value can limit market growth, constrain profit margins
Figure 2: Select attitudes towards private label, February 2018
Some ailment sufferers are not engaged in prompt treatment
Figure 3: Select attitudes towards cough, cold, flu, and allergy treatments, February 2018
The opportunities
Tactics can incentivize stock-up purchases in advance
Figure 4: Select stock-up incentives, February 2018
Fully leverage natural trend to appeal to more shoppers
Figure 5: Select Natural product concerns, February 2018
Ensure shoppers have easy access to the right products for their needs
Figure 6: Select attitudes towards cough, cold, flu, and allergy treatment, February 2018
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Strong flu season drives industry growth in 2017-18
Flagship brands, ailment incidence drive segment growth
Addressing allergen environments, flu shot incentives could influence remedy demand
Birth rate, 65+ population, climate change to influence market
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
2017-18 flu season drives growth, future will stabilize
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of cough, cold/flu, and allergy remedies, at current prices, 2012-22
MARKET BREAKDOWN
All segments see growth in 2017 – especially cough/throat remedies
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of cough, cold/flu, and allergy remedies, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Environment modification could alter allergy treatment tactics
Rising pet ownership could increase allergy sufferers, remedy demand
Figure 10: Number of pet owning households, 2006-16
Flu shot incentives could stave off flu incidence levels
Social media could be leveraged during strong flu seasons
Figure 11: Universe count for mentions of “flu,” by flu season (November-March) 2013-18
Figure 12: Topics for “Flu” mentions, Rolling 52-weeks 2016-17 Ending Mar. 9, 2018
Figure 13: Topics for “#Flu2018” mentions, Rolling 52-weeks 2016-17 Ending Mar. 9, 2018
MARKET FACTORS 
Fewer births may negatively affect remedy demand
Figure 14: Annual births, 2006-16
Figure 15: Households with own children under age 18, 1960-2017
Growing 65+ population bodes well for preventative product demand
Figure 16: Population aged 18 or older, by age, 2018-23
Preliminary evidence shows number of allergy sufferers may rise
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Reckitt Benckiser leads market with Mucinex brand
Private label, naturally-positioned remedies outperform
Major allergy brands challenged by private label growth
Private label and fast-acting flu remedy will impact the market long term
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF COUGH, COLD, FLU, AND ALLERGY REMEDIES
Reckitt Benckiser leads market through sales and share growth
Bayer, Johnson & Johnson vie for second place
Vicks brand drives P&G sales and market share gains
Figure 17: Multi-outlet sales of cough, cold, flu, and allergy products, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
WHAT’S WORKING?
Consumer trust, elevated offerings drive private label growth
Figure 18: Mulo sales of private label cough, cold, flu, and allergy remedies, by segment, rolling 52-weeks 2016-17
Natural remedies leverage broader trends, experience growth
Figure 19: MULO sales of select natural cough, cold, flu, and allergy remedy brands, by brand, rolling 52-weeks 2016-17
Record-setting flu season propels growth in multi-functional, flagship OTC brands
Figure 20: MULO sales of cold, sinus, and flu remedies, by select brands (cold, sinus, and flu remedy sales only), rolling 52 weeks 2016-17
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Fewer than half of ailment sufferers are comfortable with nasal sprays
Figure 21: Comfort using nasal spray, by adults with allergies, February 2018
Flagship allergy brands struggle to keep pace with private label
Figure 22: MULO sales of allergy remedies, by select allergy brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016-17
WHAT’S NEXT
Rising costs, value mindset will prompt continued private label growth
New drug could limit flu duration, potentially remedy sales
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Illnesses are widespread
OTC medications, rest are most common treatment methods
Trust in private label is universal
Price and convenience steer purchase location choice
Tactics encourage consumers to proactively stock up on remedies
Natural remedy concerns are relatively low, but some still doubt
Most are engaged in treating symptoms; some delay or forego
AILMENTS EXPERIENCED
Cough, cold, and flu illnesses are widespread
Figure 23: Ailments experienced, February 2018
Age, life stage drive higher ailment incidence among 18-34s
Figure 24: Ailments experienced, by age, February 2018
Parents, especially moms, experience more ailments
Figure 25: Ailments experienced, by parental status, February 2018
Higher flu incidence among Hispanics driven by fewer flu shots
Figure 26: Ailments experienced, by Hispanic origin, February 2018
AILMENT TREATMENT METHODS 
Ailment sufferers seek easy and effective remedies
Figure 27: OTC medication, rest usage to treat ailments, February 2018
Figure 28: Home remedy usage, by ailment, February 2018
Figure 29: VMS, OTC homeopathic remedy usage, by ailment, February 2018
Relatively few forego treatment for ailments altogether
Figure 30: Any remedy usage, by ailment, February 2018
Natural lifestyles prompt natural remedy use among 18-44s
Figure 31: Ailment treatments, by age, February 2018
Treating children’s ailments, younger age influence parents’ usage
Figure 32: Ailment treatments, by parental status, February 2018
ATTITUDES TOWARD PRIVATE LABEL 
The average consumer buys, trusts private label remedies
Figure 33: Attitudes towards private label, February 2018
Some still need convincing of private label efficacy
Confidence among mothers drives private label purchases
Figure 34: Select attitudes towards private label, by parental status and gender, February 2018
Ad claims limit store brand penetration among Black consumers
Figure 35: Select attitudes towards private label, by race, February 2018
PURCHASE LOCATION INFLUENCERS
Price and convenience matter more than shopping experience
Store familiarity, product availability also important to many
Figure 36: Purchase location influencers, February 2018
Flu sufferers express unique purchasing preferences
Figure 37: Purchase location influencers, by select ailment, February 2018
Adults aged 55+ prioritize store familiarity due to established routines
Figure 38: Select purchase location influencers, by age, February 2018
STOCK-UP INCENTIVES
Different tactics could incentivize remedy stock-up
Targeting those with (or around) recent symptoms
Figure 39: Stock-up incentive: recent symptoms in self or household, February 2018
Utilizing financial incentives to encourage stock-up
Figure 40: Stock-up incentives: finding a good deal and receiving a coupon, February 2018
Inform consumers of ailment facts to prompt stock up
Figure 41: Stock-up incentives: illness related information, February 2018
Fewer ailments, established behaviors prompt less interest among 55+s
Figure 42: Stock-up incentive: finding a good deal, by age, February 2018
Black consumers respond more to ailment-related facts
Figure 43: Stock-up incentives: Ailment related information, by select race, February 2018
NATURAL PRODUCT CONCERNS
Concerns over natural remedies are present but relatively low
Figure 44: Natural product concerns, February 2018
Figure 45: Average price of cough, cold, flu, and allergy remedies, by natural claims, 52-weeks ending March 10, 2018
Lifestyle, safety concerns influence parents’ natural perceptions
Figure 46: Natural product concerns, by parental status, February 2018
Lifestyle provides context to Hispanic natural remedy perceptions
Figure 47: Natural product concerns, by Hispanic origin, February 2018
ATTITUDES TOWARDS COUGH, COLD, FLU AND ALLERGY REMEDIES
Symptom-based, timely treatments sought by majority
Figure 48: Select attitudes toward treatment, by flu ailment experienced within the last 12 months, February 2018
Market ancillary products to those who forego symptom treatment
Figure 49: Select attitudes towards cough, cold, flu, and allergy treatment, February 2018
Adults aged 45+ more vigilant in symptom treatment
Figure 50: Select attitudes towards cough, cold, flu, and allergy treatment, by age, February 2018
Mothers toughen it out when illnesses occur
Figure 51: Select attitudes towards cough, cold, flu, and allergy treatment, by parental status and gender, February 2018
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of cough, cold/flu, and allergy remedies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 53: Total US retail sales of cough, cold/flu, and allergy remedies, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold/sinus remedies, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold/sinus remedies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of cough/throat remedies, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of cough/throat remedies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of allergy remedies, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of allergy remedies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 60: Total US retail sales of cough, cold/flu, and allergy remedies, by channel, at current prices, 2012-2017
Figure 61: Total US retail sales of cough, cold/flu, and allergy remedies, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Figure 62: US supermarket sales of cough, cold/flu, and allergy remedies, at current prices, 2012-17
Figure 63: US drugstore sales of cough, cold/flu, and allergy remedies, at current prices, 2012-17
Figure 64: US sales of cough, cold/flu, and allergy remedies through other retail channels, at current prices, 2012-17
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 65: MULO sales of cold, sinus, and flu remedies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 66: MULO sales of cough and sore throat remedies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 67: Multi-outlet sales of allergy remedies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER
Correspondence Analysis – Cough, Cold, Flu and Allergy Remedies - April 2018
Methodology
Figure 68: Correspondence Analysis – Ailments & treatment, February 2018
Figure 69: Ailments & treatment, February 2018