Full Service Restaurants - US - February 2018

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The issues
Casual dining chain visitation is flat
Figure 1: Changes in casual dining chain visitation, among segment visitors, November 2017
A sense of sameness is unappealing to certain consumers
Figure 2: Casual dining chain attitudes, by FSR segment visitors, November 2017
The opportunities
Get midscale customers to “trade up”
Figure 3: Ideal casual dining restaurant chain occasions, by FSR segment visitors, November 2017
Takeout services appeal to parents
Figure 4: FSR behaviors, by parental status and age, November 2017
Casual dining chain enthusiasts respond to value
Figure 5: Casual dining chain attitudes, by changes in casual dining chain visitation, November 2017
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
FSRs maintain moderate growth
Market saturation makes standing out even harder
Largest FSRs experience declines
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
FSRs experience moderate growth
Figure 6: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of full service restaurants, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 7: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of full service restaurants, at current prices, 2012-22
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Over half of the largest FSR chains experienced falling sales or no growth
Figure 8: Share of top 100 restaurant chain sales, 2016
Figure 9: Change in sales of top casual and family/midscale chains from one year prior
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
LSR growth outpacing FSRs
Figure 10: Total revenues for restaurants and other eating places, by segment share, at current prices, 2015-22
Supermarkets become dining destinations
Figure 11: Grocer concept interest, August 2017
Co-op Cuisine benefits LSRs over FSRs
MARKET FACTORS 
Overexpansion squeezes the market
On-premise alcohol consumption falls
Figure 12: Total on-premise alcohol consumption, litres per capita, 2010-20
No room for the middle?
Restaurants face labor shortage
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
FSRs target at-home occasions
Casual dining chains return to the basics
FSRs open all day and rely on social media
WHAT’S WORKING?
Restaurants bet on off-site sales
Figure 13: Red Robin email, December 29, 2017
Figure 14: Chili’s email, December 31st, 2017
Dinertainment restaurants rise above the rest
Darden maintains growth while competitors falter
2017: THE YEAR OF THE CASUAL DINING RESET
Mainstream casual dining struggles; companies hit reset
Applebee’s
Chili’s
TGI Friday’s
Buffalo Wild Wings
Golden Corral
Rebranding and redesign underway at Tony Roma’s, Tilted Kilt, and Beef O’ Brady’s
WHAT’S NEXT?
Where’s the beef?
Booze to you
Figure 15: TGI Friday’s alcohol delivery
Mighty mocktails
Figure 16: Mocktail examples at fine dining restaurants
FSRs open up for all-day dining
Smarter restaurant choice from social media
Focus on social media-worthy alcoholic drinks
Figure 17: TGI Friday’s Email, December 15, 2017
Fine dining menu trends
Fine dining Asian cuisine experiences strong growth
Cakes get savory
Figure 18: Savory cake/cheesecake examples at fine dining restaurants
Fine dining sauces can expand to other segments and retail
Chefs substitute veggies for meat
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Midscale/casual dining chains experience stagnant net visitation
Ambivalence is hurting the casual dining chain market
A value-centric approach may save a struggling brand
Coupons shouldn’t be underestimated
CHANGES IN FSR VISITATION
Casual dining chains are the second-most visited restaurant type
Figure 19: Restaurant visitation, November 2017
Most midscale diners also visit casual dining chains
Figure 20: FSR segment cross visitation, November 2017
Independents experience highest net growth
Figure 21: Changes in restaurant visitation, among segment visitors, November 2017
FSR visitation varies by demographics
Figure 22: Changes in restaurant visitation, among segment visitors, by select demos, November 2017
Figure 23: Changes in restaurant visitation, among segment visitors, by socioeconomic status, November 2017
REASONS FOR VISITING CASUAL DINING CHAINS LESS
Price remains the strongest prohibitor
Figure 24: Reasons for visiting casual dining chains less, coded qualitative responses, top 10, November 2017
IDEAL CASUAL DINING RESTAURANT CHAIN OCCASIONS
Ideal occasions revolve around friends/family
Figure 25: Ideal casual dining restaurant chain occasions, November 2017
Target midscale diners
Figure 26: Ideal casual dining restaurant chain occasions, by FSR segment visitors, November 2017
Possible opportunity for sports-based promotions
Figure 27: Ideal casual dining restaurant chain occasions, by changes in casual dining chain visitation, November 2017
Figure 28: Applebee’s email, January 8, 2018
Upper status consumers are an elusive group
Figure 29: Ideal casual dining restaurant chain occasions, by socioeconomic status, November 2017
CASUAL DINING CHAIN ATTITUDES
Casual dining chains excel at family friendly, value-oriented meals
Figure 30: Casual dining chain attitudes, November 2017
Black consumers represent a key consumer group
Figure 31: Casual dining chain attitudes, by race/ethnicity, November 2017
A formulaic dining experience fails to connect with independent/fine dining customers
Figure 32: Casual dining chain attitudes, by FSR segment visitors, November 2017
Figure 33: CHAID analysis – Casual dining chain attitudes, November 2017
Value may be driving increased visitation
Figure 34: Casual dining chain attitudes, by changes in casual dining chain visitation, November 2017
CASUAL DINING CHAIN VISITATION MOTIVATORS
What’s the deal with deals?
Figure 35: Casual dining chain visitation motivators, November 2017
Seasonal/shareable items may attract a younger clientele
Figure 36: Casual dining chain visitation motivators, by generation, November 2017
Everyday value may appeal to midscale diners
Figure 37: Casual dining chain visitation motivators, by FSR segment visitors, November 2017
FSR BEHAVIORS
Don’t disregard coupons
Figure 38: Chili’s email, December 18, 2017
Figure 39: FSR behaviors, November 2017
Delivery usage highest among young consumers
Figure 40: FSR behaviors, by age, November 2017
Pick-up programs appeal to parents
Figure 41: FSR behaviors, by parental status and age, November 2017
Fine dining customers may be most open to restaurant tech
Figure 42: FSR behaviors, by FSR segment visitors, November 2017
FSR SEGMENT ASSOCIATIONS
Consistency is a double-edged sword for casual dining chains
Figure 43: FSR associations, November 2017
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Mintel Menu Insights
ePerformance
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 44: Total US revenues and forecast for full service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER 
CHAID Methodology
FSR segment visitors’ demographic profiles
Figure 45: FSR segment visitors demographic profiles