Nail Color and Care - US - January 2018

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The issues
Cyclical nature of the category has led to a decline in sales
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of nail color and care, at current prices, 2012-22
Women are less engaged than a year ago
Figure 2: Nail routine involvement, October 2017
Concerns about damage could be steering women away from gel polish
Figure 3: Attitudes toward nail damage and ingredient safety, by age, October 2017
The opportunities
Back to basics, with benefits
Figure 4: Nail product usage, October 2017
Pop-up shops could be a way to boost product usage
Hispanic women remain engaged in nail trends
Figure 5: Select nail product usage, by Hispanic origin, October 2017
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Nail color and care market in decline
Largest segment experiences largest loss
Salon services are in decline, involvement among affluent women stagnant
Growth in aging and Hispanic populations
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Historic and projected sales performance of nail color and care
Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of nail color and care, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of nail color and care, at current prices, 2012-22
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Nail polish sees largest sales drop
Figure 8: Share of nail color and care sales, by segment, at current prices, 2017
Artificial nails get a boost
Figure 9: Total US retail sales of nail color and care, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Salon services also struggling to bolster engagement
Figure 10: Nail services done at a salon, November 2014, October 2015, and October 2017
Middle-income women more engaged in some salon services
Figure 11: Select nail services done at a salon, by household income, October 2017
Figure 12: Select nail routine involvement, by household income, October 2017
MARKET FACTORS 
Growth in aging population
Figure 13: Female population by age, 2012-22
Rising consumer confidence
Figure 14: Consumer Sentiment Index, Oct 2010-Oct 2017
Hispanic population projects highest growth
Figure 15: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2012-22
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
MULO sales align with decline in consumer engagement
Concerns regarding nail damage see sales success
Nail products associated with gel manicures struggling
Opportunities to think outside of the bottle may change consumer skepticism
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF NAIL COLOR AND CARE
MULO sales indicative of total market
Kiss Products post growth with gains in accessories and artificial nails
Sales of nail color and care by company
Figure 16: MULO sales of nail color and care, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
WHAT’S WORKING?
Innovations in artificial nails see success
Figure 17: MULO sales of artificial nails and accessories, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Polish with treatment claims growing in sales
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Gel nail polish loses shine
Figure 18: Nail services done at-home, November 2014, October 2015, and October 2017
Treatments associated with gel losing share to polish with benefits
Figure 19: MULO sales of nail treatments, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
WHAT’S NEXT?
Free-from ingredient claims provide opportunity to make polish “safe”
Cruelty-free claims shift from face to nails
Figure 20: Select nail polish claims, by highest percentage growth, Jan 2013-Dec 2017*
Pop-up shops provide a unique, exclusive experience for younger generations
Figure 21: Break Records, Not Nails | #OPIWorldRecord, 2017
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
At home, traditional nail services beat out trendy
Traditional nail products stay on top
Mass merchandisers most popular shopping destination
Women spending less time at the salon, less money on products
Appropriate color top reason for choosing polish
Concerns over polishing and nail health are growing
NAIL SERVICES
Single-color manicures and pedicures remain most popular services
Figure 22: Nail services done, salon vs at-home, October 2017
Younger women more likely to do nail services at home
Figure 23: Nail services done, at-home, by age, October 2017
Hispanic women over index for at-home nail services
Figure 24: Nail services done, at-home, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2017
NAIL PRODUCT USAGE
Nail staples have higher usage than specialty products
Figure 25: Nail product usage, October 2017
Staples see high usage, women aged 55+ heavy users
Figure 26: Nail product usage, by age, October 2017
Engagement higher among Black and Hispanic women
Figure 27: Nail product usage, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2017
RETAILERS SHOPPED
Mass merchandisers and drug stores encourage impulse buys
Figure 28: Retailers shopped, October 2017
Majority of purchases occur in-store
Figure 29: In-store vs. online purchase, October 2017
Online shoppers visit more retailers compared to in-store
Figure 30: Select retailers shopped, by in-store vs. online purchase, October 2017
Women tend to follow the purchase patterns of their respective age groups
Figure 31: Retailers shopped, by age, October 2017
Hispanics seek out variety of retailers to find products
Figure 32: Retailers shopped, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2017
INVOLVEMENT IN NAIL ROUTINES
Women spending less time at the salon, less money on products
Figure 33: Nail routine involvement, October 2017
25-44-year-olds spending more time researching and experimenting
Figure 34: Nail routine involvement – More or less time spent, by age, October 2017
Hispanic women spend more time on nail trends
Figure 35: Nail routine involvement – More or less time spent, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2017
REASONS FOR CHOOSING NAIL POLISH
Appropriate color top reason for choosing polish
Figure 36: Reasons for choosing nail polish, by rank, October 2017
Mature women play it safe with color, younger groups follow trends
Figure 37: Reasons for choosing nail polish, any rank (net), by age, October 2017
Hispanic women are trend-driven, willing to try new looks
Figure 38: Reasons for choosing nail polish, any rank (net), by race and Hispanic origin, October 2017
ATTITUDES TOWARD NAIL PRODUCTS
Ingredient safety a growing concern, some skepticism regarding efficacy
Figure 39: Attitudes towards nail products, October 2015 and October 2017
18-34-year-olds interested but skeptical about natural
Figure 40: Attitudes towards nail products, by age, October 2017
Black women more concerned with natural than other groups
Figure 41: Attitudes towards nail products, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2017
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 42: Total US sales and forecast of nail color and care, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 43: Total US retail sales of nail color and care, by segment, at current prices, 2012-17
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 44: MULO sales of nail polish, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 45: MULO sales of nail accessories and implements, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 46: MULO sales of nail polish removers, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017