Unprocessed Poultry and Red Meat - UK - November 2017

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Falling prices dampen market performance
Inflation to support value growth
Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail value sales of unprocessed poultry and meat and game, 2012-22
Beef remains popular
Pork held back by weak image
High price makes lamb vulnerable
Poultry is expected to be the winner
Weakened Pound and inflation put squeeze on household incomes
Slow Brexit negotiations foster uncertainty
Access to seasonal labour remains a burning question
Meat reduction remains on-trend
Progress made on campylobacter levels and antibiotics use
Companies and brands
Co-op and Morrisons step up their commitment to UK meat sourcing
Retailers grow their own-label easy-to-cook ranges
Asda revives Farm Stores brand; M&S launches meat boxes
Co-op and Morrisons highlight British sourcing commitment
Lidl features farm visits in Christmas ad campaign
AHDB spotlights “midweek” loin medallions
The consumer
Meat eating remains ingrained
Figure 2: Frequency of eating types of unprocessed poultry, meat and game, August 2017
25-34-year-olds have the widest meat repertoires
Meat consumption increases with income
Chicken most versatile in cooking methods
Encouraging recipe swaps could support wider pork and lamb usage
Figure 3: Cooking methods used for beef, pork, lamb and chicken, by type of meat, August 2017
Income squeeze will affect most people’s meat purchasing
Savvy shopping is likely to be widespread
Figure 4: Expected reactions to an income squeeze for unprocessed poultry, meat and game purchasing, August 2017
Brexit could give UK produce the edge despite limited origin scrutiny
Figure 5: Behaviours relating to unprocessed poultry, meat and game, August 2017
Trust can be won by improved traceability
Figure 6: Attitudes towards unprocessed poultry, meat and game, August 2017
Chicken’s popularity built on strong positive associations
Beef and pork need to push the convenience factor
Figure 7: Correspondence analysis of qualities associated with types of unprocessed poultry, meat and game, August 2017
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Cushioning the impact of an income squeeze on meat purchasing
The facts
The implications
Consumer trust could give British meat an edge over imported post-Brexit
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Falling prices dampen market performance
Inflation to support value growth
Beef remains popular
Pork held back by weak image
High price makes lamb vulnerable
Poultry is expected to be the winner
Weakened Pound and inflation put squeeze on household incomes
Slow Brexit negotiations foster uncertainty
Access to seasonal labour remains a burning question
Meat reduction remains on-trend
Progress made on campylobacter levels and antibiotics use
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Market values hit by falling prices
Figure 8: UK retail value sales of unprocessed poultry and meat and game, 2012-22
Inflation to support value growth
Figure 9: Forecast of UK retail value sales of unprocessed poultry and meat and game, 2012-22
Forecast methodology
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Rising wholesale prices see beef value growth return
Inflation should buoy beef value sales
Figure 10: UK retail value sales of unprocessed poultry and meat and game, by segment, 2012-22
Tight supplies slow pork value declines
Further value declines expected for pork values
Lamb values fall as it struggles to appeal to weekday meal occasions
Squeezed incomes leave lamb vulnerable
Poultry boosted by chicken’s versatility
Strong value image should underpin poultry growth
Increased availability boosts sales of game
Growth expected to slow for game
MARKET DRIVERS
Weakened Pound and inflation put squeeze on household incomes
Weakened Pound has provided some benefit to producers
Slow Brexit negotiations foster uncertainty
Trade deals slow to progress
Access to labour remains a burning question
Meat reduction remains on-trend
Figure 11: Consumers’ meat eating habits, March 2017
Health is an important driver for cutting back on meat
Ethical concerns are on people’s radar
Plant proteins seen in a positive light
Progress made on campylobacter levels…
…while steps are being taken to address antibiotics use
Undercover investigation reveals food safety breaches at 2 Sisters plant
Retailers face questions over exclusivity
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Co-op and Morrisons step up their commitment to UK meat sourcing
Retailers grow their own-label easy-to-cook ranges
Asda revives Farm Stores brand; M&S launches meat boxes
Co-op and Morrisons highlight British sourcing commitment
Lidl features farm visits in Christmas ad campaign
AHDB spotlights “midweek” loin medallions
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Retailers step up their commitment to UK meat sourcing
Co-op extends British pledge
Morrisons commits to British meat in fresh
Own-label easy-to-cook ranges grow
Cook-in-the-bag chicken continues to attract launches…
…while cooking time is cut with slow-cooked and sous vide
Asda revives Farm Stores brand
M&S raises the steaks with meat boxes
Tesco and Waitrose trial recipe boxes
Sainsbury’s taps Silicon Valley gold leaf trend
Asda and Waitrose add a sparkle to meat with Prosecco
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
The Co-op and Morrisons emphasise British sourcing commitment
Supermarkets continue to spotlight British farmers
Lidl features farm visits in ad campaign
Co-op posts “Meet the Producer” series
Morrisons and Lidl support farming industry initiatives
AHDB shifts pork marketing to “midweek” loin medallions
QMS urges consumers to “Do More with Pork”
Industry gets behind annual campaigns
Love Lamb Week
Red Tractor Week
Goatober
Asda highlights roast-in-bag chicken for hassle-free meals
Sainsbury’s and AHDB launch summer barbecue campaigns
Booths aims to “Revive the Roast”
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Meat eating remains ingrained
25-34-year-olds have the widest meat repertoires
Meat consumption increases with income
Chicken most versatile in cooking methods
Encouraging recipe swaps could support wider pork and lamb usage
Income squeeze will affect most people’s meat purchasing
Savvy shopping is likely to be widespread
Brexit could give UK produce the edge despite limited origin scrutiny
Trust can be won by improved traceability
Chicken’s popularity built on strong positive associations
Beef and pork need to push the convenience factor
USAGE OF UNPROCESSED POULTRY, MEAT AND GAME
Meat eating remains ingrained
Chicken is eaten nearly universally
Figure 12: Frequency of eating types of unprocessed poultry, meat and game, August 2017
25-34-year-olds have the widest meat repertoires
Figure 13: Repertoire of type of unprocessed poultry, meat and game eaten, by age, August 2017
Meat consumption increases with income
Figure 14: Eating of unprocessed poultry, meat and game once a week or more, by gross annual household income, August 2017
COOKING METHODS FOR BEEF, PORK, LAMB AND CHICKEN
Chicken enjoys versatility in cooking
Figure 15: Repertoire of cooking methods used for beef, pork, lamb and chicken, August 2017
Beef has a lead in stewing
Figure 16: Cooking methods used for beef, pork, lamb and chicken, by type of meat, August 2017
Encouraging recipe swaps could support wider pork and lamb usage
Age divide in cooking methods
EXPECTED REACTIONS TO AN INCOME SQUEEZE
Most people would change their meat purchasing
Most would look to savvy shopping for savings
Figure 17: Expected reactions to an income squeeze for unprocessed poultry, meat and game purchasing, August 2017
One in three would buy less meat…
…but there are opportunities to switch people to cheaper options
BEHAVIOURS AND ATTITUDES TOWARDS UNPROCESSED POULTRY, MEAT AND GAME
The Sunday roast remains on people’s menu
Figure 18: Behaviours relating to unprocessed poultry, meat and game, August 2017
Brexit could give UK produce the edge despite limited origin scrutiny
Trust can be won by improved traceability
Soil Association teams with Provenance for blockchain trial
Minor steps should pay dividends
Figure 19: Attitudes towards unprocessed poultry, meat and game, August 2017
Half consider sustainability, yet awareness is low
QUALITIES ASSOCIATED WITH TYPES OF UNPROCESSED POULTRY, MEAT AND GAME
Chicken’s popularity built on strong positive associations
Figure 20: Qualities associated with types of unprocessed poultry, meat and game, August 2017
Correspondence analysis reveals the key qualities for meat types
Figure 21: Correspondence analysis of qualities associated with types of unprocessed poultry, meat and game, August 2017
Beef and pork are strong on flavour, but need to push the convenience factor
Struggling lamb has the lead for special occasions
Improving game’s weak image
Correspondence analysis methodology
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Forecast methodology
Figure 22: Total UK retail value sales of unprocessed poultry and meat and game, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
APPENDIX – MARKET SEGMENTATION
Beef
Figure 23: UK retail value sales of unprocessed beef, 2012-22
Figure 24: Forecast of UK retail value sales of unprocessed beef, 2012-22
Figure 25: Total UK retail value sales of unprocessed beef, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
Pork
Figure 26: UK retail value sales of unprocessed pork, 2012-22
Figure 27: Forecast of UK retail value sales of unprocessed pork, 2012-22
Figure 28: Total UK retail value sales of unprocessed pork, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
Lamb
Figure 29: UK retail value sales of unprocessed lamb, 2012-22
Figure 30: Forecast of UK retail value sales of unprocessed lamb, 2012-22
Figure 31: Total UK retail value sales of unprocessed lamb, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
Poultry
Figure 32: UK retail value sales of unprocessed poultry, 2012-22
Figure 33: Forecast of UK retail value sales of unprocessed poultry, 2012-22
Figure 34: Total UK retail value sales of unprocessed poultry, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
Game
Figure 35: UK retail value sales of game, 2012-22
Figure 36: Forecast of UK retail value sales of game, 2012-22
Figure 37: Total UK retail value sales of game, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
Offal
Figure 38: UK retail value sales of offal, 2012-22
Figure 39: Forecast of UK retail value sales of offal, 2012-22
Figure 40: Total UK retail value sales of offal, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22