Commercial Mortgages - UK - August 2017

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Debt fell over the past year, regaining momentum following growth last year
Figure 1: Aggregated value of outstanding debt in loan books, £ billion, 2012-16
New loan volume falls, but market retains resilience
Figure 2: New loans volume, £ billion, 2012-16
Market segmentation
Figure 3: Value of commercial property transactions, £ million, 2016 & Y-T-D 2017
Market factors
Investment in UK commercial property
Figure 4: Investment in UK commercial property, £ billion, 2012-16
Regional disparities
Commercial lending rates
Figure 5: Average Interest rate for UK MFI new advances to PNFCs, interest rate %, at April 2013-17
Business confidence levels regain growth for the first time since Brexit but remain subdued
Figure 6: UK Business Confidence Index, per half year, 2007-17
Availability and demand for credit
Figure 7: Availability of Corporate Credit to PNFCs in the last three months, net % balance, Q2 2011-Q2 2017
Figure 8: Demand for Corporate Credit to PNFCs in the last three months, net % balance, Q2 2011-Q2 2017
By lender category
UK banks and building societies continue to tighten their dominance in lending
Figure 9: New loans volume, allocation by lender category, 2012-16
Figure 10: Outstanding debt in loan books, allocation by lender category, year-end 2015 & 2016
Commercial borrowing
Market forecasts
Commercial property lending may have peaked
Ongoing structural changes to the market by lender category
Which sectors will grow and which will decline?
Foreign investors well positioned to benefit from next few years of uncertainty
What we think
KEY ISSUES
How has the shape of investment changed over the past decade?
How has Brexit manifested in the marketplace over the past year?
INTRODUCTION
Definitions
Methodology
Abbreviations
Market positioning
The supplier
The customer
UK ECONOMY 
Figure 11: Forecast GDP development, % change, 2017-21
Figure 12: UK GDP quarterly development, 2003-16
Figure 13: UK GDP in economic downturns and recoveries since 1979
Inflation
Interest rates
House prices
Figure 14: UK House price changes, 12 month % change, 2006-16
Consumer spending
Manufacturing
Figure 15: UK manufacturing, 2014-16
Business investment
Figure 16: UK GFCF, £ million, 2003-16
Imports
Exports
MARKET FACTORS
Key points
Investment in UK commercial property
Figure 17: Investment in UK commercial property, £ billion, 2012-16
Regional disparities
Figure 18: Value of commercial property transactions, £ million and number of transactions, 2015, 2016 & 2017 Y-T-D
Figure 19: Value of commercial property transactions, £ million, 2015, 2016 & 2017 Y-T-D
Commercial lending rates
Figure 20: Average interest rate for UK MFI new advances to PNFCs, interest rate %, at April 2013-17
Figure 21: Average interest rate for UK MFI new advances to PNFCs, interest rate %, at April 2013-17
Business confidence levels regain growth for the first time since Brexit but remain subdued
Figure 22: UK Business Confidence Index, per half year, 2007-17
Figure 23: UK Business Confidence Index, per half year, 2007-17
Availability and demand for credit
Figure 24: Availability of Corporate Credit to PNFCs in the last three months, net % balance, Q2 2011-Q2 2017
Figure 25: Availability of Corporate Credit to PNFCs in the last three months, net % balance, Q2 2011-Q2 2017
Figure 26: Demand for Corporate Credit to PNFCs in the last three months, net % balance, Q2 2011-Q2 2017
Figure 27: Demand for Corporate Credit to PNFCs in the last three months, net % balance, Q2 2011-Q2 2017
MARKET SIZE 
Key points
Debt fell over the past year, regaining momentum following growth last year
Figure 28: Aggregated value of outstanding debt in loan books, £ billion, 2012-16
New loan volume falls, but market retains resilience
Figure 29: New loans volume, £ billion, 2012-16
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Key points
Figure 30: Value of commercial property transactions, £ million, 2016 & Y-T-D 2017
Offices
Retail
Industrial
Leisure
Figure 31: UK Leisure industry market value, £ million, 2012-16
COMMERCIAL MORTGAGES BY LENDER CATEGORY 
Key points
UK banks and building societies continue to tighten their dominance in lending
New loan volumes by lender category
Figure 32: New loans volume, allocation by lender category, 2012-16
Figure 33: New loans volume, allocation by lender category, 2016
Outstanding debt in loan books by lender category
Figure 34: Outstanding debt in loan books, allocation by lender category, year-end 2015 & 2016
Figure 35: Outstanding debt in loan books, allocation by lender category, year-end 2016
COMMERCIAL BORROWING 
Key points
Net lending in the last quarter highest in the four-year review period
Figure 36: UK MFI’s net loans to non-financial businesses, by size of business, £ million, Q4 2013-Q2 2017
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
Key points
Industry development
Increasing regulation changing mortgage lending activity
Ring-fencing
Acquisitions and mergers
Changes in the structure of the industry:
Banks and building societies
Figure 37: Analysis of the Banks & Building societies industry structure, % change, 2012-16
Financial leasing
Figure 38: Analysis of the financial leasing industry structure, % change, 2012-16
Other credit granting
Figure 39: Analysis of the other credit granting industry structure, % change, 2012-16
Structure by turnover
Banks and building societies
Figure 40: Analysis of the financial structure of banks & building societies industry, 2015 & 2016
Financial leasing
Figure 41: Analysis of the financial structure of the financial leasing industry, 2015 & 2016
Other credit granting
Figure 42: Analysis of the financial structure of the other credit granting industry, 2015 & 2016
Structure by employment
Banks and building societies
Figure 43: Analysis of the Employment structure of banks and building societies industry, 2015 & 2016
Financial leasing
Figure 44: Analysis of the employment structure of the financial leasing industry, 2015 & 2016
Other credit granting
Figure 45: Analysis of the employment structure of the other credit granting industry, 2015 & 2016
COMPANY PROFILES 
ALDERMORE BANK 
Recent company activity
Figure 46: Financial analysis of Aldermore Bank PLC, £ million, 2012-16
Company strategy
BARCLAYS PLC
Recent company activity
Figure 47: Financial analysis of Barclays PLC, £ million, 2012-16
Company strategy
HSBC 
Recent company activity
Figure 48: Financial analysis of HSBC bank, £ million, 2012-16
Company strategy
LLOYDS BANKING GROUP
Recent company activity
Figure 49: Financial analysis of Lloyds Banking Group, £ million, 2012-16
Company strategy
PRINCIPALITY BUILDING SOCIETY
Recent company activity
Figure 50: Financial analysis of Principality Building Society, £ million, 2012-16
Company strategy
ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND GROUP
Recent company activity
Figure 51: Financial analysis of RBS Group, £ million, 2012-16
Company strategy
SANTANDER UK PLC
Recent company activity
Figure 52: Financial analysis of Santander UK PLC, £ million, 2012-16
Company strategy
SHAWBROOK BANK 
Recent company activity
Figure 53: Financial analysis of Shawbrook Bank, £ million, 2012-16
Company strategy
MARKET FORECASTS
Key points
Commercial property lending may have peaked
Ongoing structural changes to the market by lender category
Which sectors will grow and which will decline?
Figure 54: UK commercial forecasts, % change and %, 2017-21
Foreign investors well positioned to benefit from next few years of uncertainty
FURTHER SOURCES AND CONTACTS
Trade associations
Association of Short Term Lenders
CoStar
The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales
National Association of Commercial Finance Brokers
RICS
Trade magazines
Bridging & Commercial
Business Matters
Commercial Reporter
Loans Insider
Mortgage Finance Gazette
Mortgage Introducer
Mortgage Strategy
Trade exhibitions
ASTL Annual Bridging Conference 2017 – Brexit and Bridging
Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) Annual Launch
Commercial Real Estate Finance Council (CREFC) Autumn Conference
Financial Services Expo London 2017
The Financial Professional Show