Smoking Cessation and E-cigarettes - UK - January 2017

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Smoking cessation sector bounces back
Figure 1: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of smoking cessation products, 2011-21
E-cigarette growth slows down
Advertising spend sees steady rise in smoking cessation sector
Figure 2: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on smoking cessation products, by media type, January 2013-October 2016
E-cigarette advertising sees limitations
Figure 3: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on E-cigarettes, by media type, January 2013-October 2016
Smokers are in the minority
Figure 4: Smoking status, October 2016
Rate of vaping has not changed
Figure 5: Vaping status, November 2014 and October 2016
Stress-related vaping
Figure 6: Vaping occasions, October 2016
Refillable E-cigarettes are the most popular format
Figure 7: Purchase of E-cigarettes, October 2016
Flavour is the biggest driver
Figure 8: Factors influencing the choice of E-cigarettes, October 2016
Desire to quit smoking is high
Figure 9: Quit smoking status, October 2016
Use of E-cigarettes as a smoking cessation method declines
Figure 10: Methods used to quit smoking, November 2014 and October 2016
NHS regulation is welcome
Figure 11: Attitudes towards E-cigarettes, October 2016
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Lack of E-cigarette brands in the smoking cessation sector
The facts
The implications
NRT can be used in conjunction with E-cigarettes
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Value of the smoking cessation sector shows recovery
Savvy shoppers buy at discounters
Healthier lifestyles may drive alternatives to smoking
Rising cost of tobacco
Legislation is limiting E-cigarettes
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Smoking cessation sector bounces back
Figure 12: UK value sales of smoking cessation products, 2011-21
E-cigarette growth slows down
Long-term growth in smoking cessation predicted
Figure 13: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of smoking cessation products, 2011-21
The impact of the EU referendum vote
Smoking cessation has shown growth in the past
Figure 14: Alternative market scenarios for the post-Brexit smoking cessation market, at current prices, 2016-21
Figure 15: Detailed Post-Brexit scenarios for the smoking cessation market, at current prices, 2016-21
Legislation changes may impact the sector
Consumers are already shopping savvily
Forecast methodology
CHANNELS TO MARKET
Discounters and online channels fare well
Figure 16: UK retail sales of smoking cessation aids, by outlet type and value, 2015 and 2016
Specialist stores cater to E-cigarette market
MARKET DRIVERS
Rise in young people could impact smoking
Figure 17: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2011-21
Focus on healthy lifestyles
Figure 18: Trial and interest in healthy living trends, August 2016
Tobacco: a growing expense
Figure 19: Indices of tobacco price, retail prices and affordability of tobacco, 1980-2016
Decline in NRT prescriptions…
Figure 20: Prescription items of pharmacotherapies prescribed in primary care to help people quit smoking, by type of pharmacotherapy received, 2009/10-2014/15
…however, death from smoking stays the same
Figure 21: Percentage of registered deaths among adults aged 35 and over, and deaths from diseases which can be caused by smoking, 2010-14
E-cigarette media scares
E-cigarettes should be a smoking cessation method…
…however, licensing may be too expensive
TPD and Brexit
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
NiQuitin sees biggest rise in market share
Renewed NPD in smoking cessation sector
E-cigarettes continue to see innovation
Next-generation cigarettes likely to impact the sector
Advertising spend is steadily on the rise
E-cigarette advertising impacted by TPD
MARKET SHARE
Advertising contributes to sales in smoking cessation
Figure 22: Brand shares in UK value sales of smoking cessation products, years ending October, 2015 and 2016
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Smoking cessation saw renewed NPD in 2016
Impact of TPD on E-cigarettes innovation
NPD in E-cigarettes
Next-generation cigarettes
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Cinema spend sees a rise
Figure 23: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on smoking cessation products, by media type, January 2013-October 2016
New regulations impact E-cigarette advertising
Figure 24: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on E-cigarettes, by media type, January 2013-October 2016
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Smokers are in the minority
Non-smokers are unlikely to vape
Vaping rates stay the same
Work breaks trigger vaping usage
Refillable E-cigarettes are the most popular format
Flavour is the biggest driver for E-cigarettes
Interest in quitting smoking is high
Use of E-cigarettes as a smoking cessation method declines
Vaping is trendy
SMOKING AND VAPING STATUS
Smokers are in the minority
Figure 25: Smoking status, October 2016
Profile of vapers reflects the profile of smokers
Figure 26: Smokers and vapers, by age, October 2016
Vaping is not on the rise
Figure 27: Vaping status, November 2014 and October 2016
Vaping appeals to younger people
Socio-economic gap in vapers
Figure 28: Vapers, by socio-economic group, November 2014 and October 2016
VAPING OCCASIONS
Creatures of habit
Figure 29: Vaping occasions, October 2016
Stress-related vaping
Social vaping
PURCHASE OF E-CIGARETTES
Value for money may drive purchase
Figure 30: Purchase of E-cigarettes, October 2016
Convenience drives disposables
Flavour is the most important factor
Figure 31: Factors influencing the choice of E-cigarettes, October 2016
Price is important
Recommendations are a lower driver
QUIT SMOKING STATUS
Interest in quitting smoking is lower in non-parents
Figure 32: Quit smoking status, October 2016
Vaping has no impact on quitting status
Figure 33: Quit smoking status amongst vapers, October 2016
E-cigarettes become lifestyle choice
Figure 34: Status of those who have already quit, October 2016
METHODS USED TO QUIT SMOKING
Usage of E-cigarettes as a smoking cessation method declines
Figure 35: Methods used to quit smoking, November 2014 and October 2016
Usage of multiple methods
E-cigarettes are effective
Figure 36: Usage of smoking cessation methods, by status of those who have already quit smoking, October 2016
ATTITUDES TOWARDS E-CIGARETTES
Vaping is a nuisance
Figure 37: Attitudes towards E-cigarettes, October 2016
Vaping is trendy
E-cigarette addiction
Figure 38: Agreement with selected statements amongst vapers, October 2016
E-cigarette regulation is welcome
Older people more likely to want more information
Figure 39: Any agreement with ‘There is not enough information on how E-cigarettes work’, by age, October 2016
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology
Forecast methodology