Biscuits, Cookies and Crackers - UK - March 2016

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Minimal growth in total sales
Figure 1: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of sweet and savoury biscuits, breakfast biscuits, cereal/snack bars, crackers, crispbread and rice cakes, 2010-20
Sales of sweet biscuits holding firm amid sugar concerns
Focus on sugar and price pressures a threat to future sales
No sign of people cutting back on eating biscuits in 2015
Savoury biscuits eaten less frequently than sweet biscuits
Figure 2: Frequency of eating different types of biscuits, cookies, crackers and cereal bars, December 2015
Sweet biscuits most likely to be eaten as a snack at home
Lots of filling or a thick covering most likely to encourage trading up
Figure 3: Factors that would encourage buyers to pay more for sweet biscuits, December 2015
Linking biscuits more strongly to particular occasions
Figure 4: Interest in trying different types of biscuit products, December 2015
Concerns about sugar and interest in alternatives to refined sugar
Figure 5: Attitudes towards biscuits, December 2015
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
New pack formats and product pairings can expand usage occasions in biscuits
The facts
The implications
Fillings and freshness offer ways to add value to sweet biscuits to combat lacklustre volume sales
The facts
The implications
Threat from concerns about sugar and focus on health and nutrition
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Small increase in sales of biscuits
Sweet biscuit sales holding up amid sugar concerns
Baked snacks help sales of savoury biscuits
Strong NPD activity in cereal bars and breakfast biscuits
Focus on sugar in media could impact on future sales
Growing real incomes but a changed retail landscape
Increased competition in snack foods
Growth in the child population and number of over-55s
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Small increase in sales of biscuits and cereal bars in 2015
Figure 6: Total UK retail volume and value sales of sweet and savoury biscuits, breakfast biscuits, cereal/snack bars, crackers, crispbread and rice cakes, 2010-20
The future
Figure 7: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of sweet and savoury biscuits, breakfast biscuits, cereal/snack bars, crackers, crispbread and rice cakes, 2010-20
Figure 8: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of sweet and savoury biscuits, breakfast biscuits, cereal/snack bars, crackers, crispbread and rice cakes, 2010-20
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Sweet biscuit sales hold firm amid sugar concerns
Figure 9: Total UK retail volume and value sales of sweet biscuits, 2010-20
Figure 10: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of sweet biscuits, 2010-20
Figure 11: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of sweet biscuits, 2010-20
Savoury biscuits helped by appeal of baked snacks
Figure 12: Total UK retail volume and value sales of savoury biscuits, crackers, crispbread and rice cakes, 2010-20
Figure 13: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of savoury biscuits, crackers, crispbread and rice cakes, 2010-20
Figure 14: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of savoury biscuits, crackers, crispbread and rice cakes, 2010-20
NPD activity helps sales of cereal bars and breakfast biscuits
Figure 15: Total UK retail volume and value sales of breakfast biscuits and cereal/snack bars, 2010-20
Figure 16: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of breakfast biscuits and cereal/snack bars, 2010-20
Figure 17: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of breakfast biscuits and cereal/snack bars, 2010-20
MARKET DRIVERS
Focus on sugar and obesity epidemic could hit biscuits
Ongoing focus on sugar
Little impact on biscuits
Figure 18: Factors deemed important when looking for healthy food, November 2015
Growth in real incomes but a changed retail landscape
Figure 19: Frequency of visiting discount stores, by brand, July 2015
Competition and blurring of product boundaries in snack foods
Projected increase in the number of children and over-55s
Figure 20: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2010-20
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
McVitie’s benefits from new launch and promotional activity
Jacob’s strengthens its lead in savoury biscuits
Belvita benefits from range extensions
Less advertising for sweet biscuits hits total spending in 2015
McVitie’s and Oreo lead sweet biscuit advertising
Snack versatility a major theme in savoury biscuits
Breakfast biscuits focus on getting your morning going
Four in ten sweet biscuit launches by retailers
More flavours and bite-size snacks in savoury biscuits
Snack/cereal/energy bars focus on functional benefits
MARKET SHARE
McVitie’s has big lead in sweet biscuits
Figure 21: Leading brands’ sales in the sweet biscuits market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
Jacob’s puts in a strong sales performance
Figure 22: Leading brands in the savoury biscuits, crackers and crispbread market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
Belvita benefits from extensions to its product range
Figure 23: Leading brands in the cereal bars and breakfast biscuits market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Decline in total spending on advertising biscuits
Figure 24: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on biscuits, short bread, crackers/crisp breads, breadsticks/savoury and cereal bars/breakfast biscuits, 2012-15
Figure 25: Share of recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on biscuits, short bread, crackers/crisp breads, breadsticks/savoury and cereal bars/breakfast biscuits, by segment, 2012-15
Advertising dominated by three companies
Figure 26: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on biscuits, short bread, crackers/crisp breads, breadsticks/savoury and cereal bars/breakfast biscuits, by top advertisers, 2012-15
Oreo and McVitie’s the most advertised sweet biscuit brands
Figure 27: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on sweet biscuits and short bread, by leading brands by spend, 2015
Savoury biscuits focus on snack versatility
Figure 28: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on savoury biscuits, by leading brands, 2015
Belvita leads advertising in breakfast biscuits
Figure 29: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on cereal bars and breakfast biscuits, by leading brands, 2015
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Increased NPD activity in cereal and energy bars
Figure 30: New product launches in the UK biscuits, cookies and crackers market, share by sub-category, January 2011-December 2015
Retailers account for four in ten sweet biscuit launches
Figure 31: New product launches in the UK sweet biscuits/cookies market, share by top 15 companies*, January 2011-December 2015
Expanding range of flavours in cookies
Figure 32: Examples of own-label product launches in the UK sweet biscuits/cookies market, 2015
DeliChoc arrives from continental Europe
Belvita expands breakfast biscuits range
Figure 33: Examples of branded launches in breakfast biscuits in the UK sweet biscuits/cookies market, 2015
Making more of absence of additives and preservatives
Figure 34: New product launches in the UK sweet biscuits/cookies market, share by top 15 claims*, January 2011-December 2015
Savoury biscuits/crackers sees fragmented launch activity
Figure 35: Examples of own-label product launches in the UK savoury biscuits/crackers market, 2015
New look packaging for Jacob’s part of UB’s masterbrand strategy
Figure 36: Examples of branded product launches and relaunches by Ryvita in the UK savoury biscuits/crackers market, 2015
Blurring of boundaries between savoury biscuits and crisps
Figure 37: New product launches in the UK savoury biscuits/crackers market, share by top 15 companies*, January 2011-December 2015
More ‘better for you’ claims in savoury biscuits
Figure 38: New product launches in the UK savoury biscuits/crackers market, share by top 15 claims*, January 2011-December 2015
Fewer own-label launches in snack/cereal/energy bars
Cereal bars adopt flavours from sweet treats
Figure 39: Examples of new flavours in the UK snack/cereal/energy bars, 2015
Figure 40: New product launches in the UK snack/cereal/energy bars, share by top 15 companies*, January 2011-December 2015
Healthy claims continue to grow in cereal/snack bars
More cereal bars preparing for possible sugar backlash
Figure 41: New product launches in the UK snack/cereal/energy bars, share by top 15 claims, January 2011-December 2015
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
No sign of people cutting back on eating biscuits
More people eating lighter biscuits and cereal bars
Sweet biscuits eaten most as a snack between meals at home
Linking other foods to savoury and breakfast biscuits
Indulgent sweet biscuits most likely to encourage trading up
Increasing the eating of biscuits for particular occasions
Extending biscuit brands into other categories
Concerns about sugar yet to impact sales
Savoury biscuits can appeal as a healthier snack option
FREQUENCY OF EATING DIFFERENT TYPES OF BISCUITS
Everyone eats biscuits
Figure 42: Types of biscuits, cookies, crackers and cereal bars eaten in the last three months, December 2014 and December 2015
No sign of people cutting back on sweet biscuits
Figure 43: Frequency of eating biscuits, cookies, crackers and cereal bars, by type, December 2015
Men less likely than women to eat savoury biscuits
Breakfast biscuits and cereal bars appeal for on-the-go eating
OCCASIONS FOR EATING BISCUITS
Sweet biscuits help to fill gap between meals
Figure 44: Occasions for eating different types of biscuits, December 2015
Making more of sweet biscuits with hot drinks
Breakfast biscuits not just eaten at breakfast
Savoury biscuits eaten most as a snack between meals
FACTORS ENCOURAGING BUYERS TO PAY MORE FOR SWEET BISCUITS
Voluminous fillings and coatings seen most widely as worth a premium
Figure 45: Factors that would encourage buyers to pay more for sweet biscuits, December 2015
A fifth willing to pay more for premium ingredients
Freshness adds to the appeal of sweet biscuits
Little willingness to pay more for healthier and ethical ingredients
British ingredients can also help to add value
INTEREST IN TRYING DIFFERENT TYPES OF BISCUIT PRODUCTS
Interest in alternatives to refined sugar
Figure 46: Interest in trying different types of biscuit products, December 2015
Making more of having biscuits with coffee
Catering for a range of eating occasions with mini packs
Room for wider range of fillings, textures and biscuit coatings
Extending biscuit brands into other product categories
ATTITUDES TOWARDS BISCUITS
Concern about sugar in biscuits but little impact on sales
Figure 47: Attitudes towards biscuits, December 2015
Artificial ingredients a majority concern
Savoury biscuits seen as healthier than sweet biscuits
Crackers appeal beyond cheese and biscuits
Plenty of potential for premium biscuits as gifts
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Fan chart forecast
APPENDIX – THE MARKET
Figure 48: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of sweet and savoury biscuits, breakfast biscuits, cereal/snack bars, crackers, crispbread and rice cakes, 2010-20
Figure 49: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of sweet and savoury biscuits, breakfast biscuits, cereal/snack bars, crackers, crispbread and rice cakes, 2010-20
Figure 50: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of sweet biscuits, 2010-20
Figure 51: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of sweet biscuits, 2010-20
Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of savoury biscuits, crackers, crispbread and rice cakes, 2010-20
Figure 53: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of savoury biscuits, crackers, crispbread and rice cakes, 2010-20
Figure 54: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of breakfast biscuits and cereal/snack bars, 2010-20
Figure 55: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of breakfast biscuits and cereal/snack bars, 2010-20
Figure 56: UK retail volume sales of sweet and savoury biscuits, cereal/snack bars and breakfast biscuits, by segment, 2014 and 2015
Figure 57: UK retail volume sales of sweet and savoury biscuits, cereal bars and breakfast biscuits, by segment, 2014 and 2015
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS
Figure 58: Leading manufacturers’ sales in the sweet biscuits market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
Figure 59: Leading manufacturers’ sales in the savoury biscuits, crackers and crispbread market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
Figure 60: Leading manufacturers’ sales in the cereal bars and breakfast biscuits market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
Figure 61: New product launches in the UK biscuits, cookies, crackers and snack/cereal bars market, branded vs private label share by category, January-December 2015