Long-haul Holidays - UK - October 2015

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Long-haul holidays forecast to grow 12% in the next five years
Figure 1: Forecast volume of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2010-20
Figure 2: Forecast value of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2010-20
Lower jet fuel prices will deliver higher long-haul capacity
Figure 3: Jet fuel prices, GBP per gallon, August 2010-August 2015
Nearly 20% of all holidays are long-haul
Figure 4: Long-haul vs. short-haul holidays, by volume, 2009-14
The US takes a 28% share
Figure 5: Top 10 long-haul holiday destinations, by volume, 2013-14
25-34s and the over-55s are the most likely to be long-haul holidaymakers
Figure 6: Percentage of the UK population who have taken a long-haul holiday in the last 5 years, June 2015
Consumers would like to go further afield on their long-haul holidays
Figure 7: Next and ideal long-haul holiday destinations for UK residents who have taken a long-haul holiday in the last 5 years, June 2015
Nearly 40% book their long-haul holidays over five months in advance
Figure 8: How far in advance the last long-haul holiday was booked, June 2015
Cost of flights the main reason more consumers don’t go long-haul
Figure 9: Attitudes to long-haul travel by those who have taken a long-haul holiday in the last 5 years, June 2015
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Consumers want to be more adventurous on their long-haul holidays
The facts
The implications
Price-conscious mind-set means tough market conditions despite predicted volume growth
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Long-haul market set to grow 12% to 8.7 million holidays by 2020
Favourable market conditions provide higher margin opportunities for travel companies
The US and Caribbean are the fastest growing destinations for long-haul holidays
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
The long-haul market will grow to 8.7 million holidays by 2020
Figure 10: Forecast volume of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2010-20
Figure 11: Forecast value of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2010-20
Pent-up demand for long-haul holidays is likely to peak in 2016
Figure 12: Forecast volume of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2010-20
Low-cost long-haul holidays will dampen value growth over time
Figure 13: Forecast value of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2010-20
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Long-haul holidays take a growing share compared to short-haul
Figure 14: Long-haul vs. short-haul holidays, by volume, 2009-14
Long-haul package holidays gained share during 2014
Figure 15: Independent vs. non-independent long-haul holidays, by volume, 2009-14
No-fly cruises to long-haul destinations are growing
Figure 16: Long-haul holiday trips taken, by transport type, 2009-14
Jamaica and the UAE were the fastest growing destinations for 2014
Figure 17: Top 10 long-haul holiday destinations, by volume, 2013-14
The US takes £1 out of every £3 spent on long-haul holidays
Figure 18: Top 10 long-haul holiday destinations, by value, 2013-14
Caribbean destinations saw just under 90% volume growth in 2014
Figure 19: Best- and worst-performing destinations, by volume change, 2013-14
MARKET DRIVERS
Fuel prices at the lowest level since 2009
Figure 20: Jet fuel prices, GBP per gallon, September 2010-August 2015
Long-haul family holidays are likely to rise as APD fees fall
Figure 21: Air passenger duty rates, 2013-16
Sterling performs well against most long-haul destination currencies
Figure 22: Foreign exchange rate index, GBP against key long-haul destination currencies, January 2013-August 2015
The ten most expensive destinations are all long-haul
Figure 23: Post office worldwide holiday costs barometer, January 2015
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Long-haul route expansion through locally based joint ventures
New aircraft bring luxury to consumers and efficiency to airlines
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
40% of UK holidaymakers have taken a long-haul holiday in the last five years
Consumers would like to head off to more exotic locations on long-haul holidays
Nearly 40% book long-haul holidays over five months in advance
WHO ARE THE LONG-HAUL HOLIDAYMAKERS?
40% of UK holidaymakers have travelled long-haul in the last five years
Figure 24: Percentage of the UK population who have taken a long-haul holiday in the last 5 years, June 2015
Mid-income households and empty nesters are the most likely long-haul holidaymakers
Figure 25: Profile of long-haul holidaymakers in the last 5 years, June 2015
LONG-HAUL HOLIDAY DESTINATIONS AND TYPES
Transatlantic destinations are the most popular for long-haul holidays
Figure 26: Destinations been to on long-haul holidays in the last 5 years, June 2015
Consumers would like to go further afield for long-haul holidays
Figure 27: Next and ideal long-haul holiday destinations, June 2015
A quarter of long-haul holidaymakers opt for experiential holidays
Figure 28: Type of long-haul holiday taken in the last 5 years
LONG-HAUL HOLIDAY BOOKING
Half of consumers book through one company
Figure 29: How last long-haul holiday was booked, June 2015
Nearly 40% book long-haul holidays over five months in advance
Figure 30: How far in advance the last long-haul holiday was booked, June 2015
Middle-income households are the most likely to book far in advance
Figure 31: How far in advance the last long-haul holiday was booked, by household income, June 2015
ATTITUDES TO LONG-HAUL HOLIDAYS
Accommodation quality is a high priority for long-haul holidaymakers
Figure 32: Attitudes to long-haul travel by those who have taken a long-haul holiday in the last 5 years, June 2015
Peer recommendations have the biggest influence on destination choice
Figure 33: What influenced holidaymakers to choose their last long-haul destination, June 2015
A third of holidaymakers use price comparison sites before they book
Figure 34: How long-haul holidaymakers use holiday related digital services, June 2015
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Data sources
Definitions
Abbreviations
Fan chart forecast