Consumers and the Economic Outlook: Quarterly Update - UK - April 2015

KEY FINDINGS
Improvements at the household level leave consumers cautiously optimistic
The Capital continues to be predominantly responsible for consumer spend
Key economic indicators
Figure 1: Key economic indicators, March 2015
CURRENT FINANCIAL SITUATION
Economic expectations provide focus for the election campaign
Figure 2: “How would you generally describe your financial situation at the moment?”, March 2015
Caution limits levels of improvement in consumer sentiment
Economic factors have different effects on different households and this affects average consumer sentiment
Figure 3: Financial wellbeing index, 2009-15
Lagging economic recovery in Wales dampens consumer wellbeing
Figure 4: “How would you generally describe your financial situation at the moment?”, by region, March 2015
CHANGES IN FINANCIAL WELLBEING
26% feel they are better off than a year ago
Figure 5: “How would you describe your finances compared to a year ago?”, March 2015
Figure 6: The recovery index, 2011-15
The influence of house prices
Sentiment is rising more strongly in the Midlands
Figure 7: “How would you describe your finances compared to a year ago?”, March 2015
FINANCIAL CONFIDENCE
Majority of consumers are cautiously optimistic…
Figure 8: “And how do you feel about your financial situation over the next year or so?”, March 2015
…as conditions improve but uncertainty prevails
Figure 9: Financial confidence index, 2009-15
London commuter effect boosts confidence of surrounding regions
Figure 10: “And how do you feel about your financial situation over the next year or so?”, by region, March 2015
SPENDING PLANS
Easing of the income squeeze boosts spending….
Figure 11: “Thinking about how you spend your money, which of the following have you done over the last three months? And which do you plan to do over the next three months?”, March 2015
….but election concerns dampen future spending intentions
Figure 12: Spending index, 2012-15
Londoners most likely to continue spending in the run-up to the election
Figure 13: Spending plans, by region, March 2015
WHAT IT MEANS
Election related uncertainty delaying the return to confidence
Consumers relax in the presence of a safety net