Nut-based Spreads and Sweet Spreads - US - March 2014

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Sales of nut-based and sweet spreads forecasted to reach $6.5 billion by 2018
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, at current prices, 2008-18
Nut spreads continue strong growth, fruit spreads somewhat stable
Figure 2: Total US retail sales of nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, by segment, at current prices, 2011 and 2013
Market factors
Increased snacking, shifting US demographics, and allergies to impact market
Key players
J.M. Smucker Co. maintains lead, strong growth for Ferrero
Figure 3: MULO sales of nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013
The consumer
Traditional spreads most purchased by US households
Figure 4: Household purchase of nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, December 2013
Meal, snack occasions common across spread types
Figure 5: Nut-based spreads and sweet spreads usage occasions, December 2013
Price most influential on spread purchases overall
Figure 6: Important factors when purchasing nut-based and sweet spreads, top five, December 2013
A preference for natural products
Figure 7: Nutritional attributes considered when purchasing nut-based and sweet spreads, top five, December 2013
Consumers want more products with nutrition, new flavors
Figure 8: Nut-based spreads and sweet spreads interested in seeing more of, top five, December 2013
A need for healthier spreads
Figure 9: Agreement with attitudes toward nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, top five, December 2013
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
How can the use of nut-based and sweet spreads be increased?
Issues
Insight: Promote use as an ingredient and offer more portable packaging
What impact will competition from other categories have?
Issues
Insight: Category brands should market versatility and authenticity
How will health concerns impact the category?
Issues
Insight: There is a need for more products with natural, organic, and health-related claims
TREND APPLICATIONS
Trend: Factory Fear
Trend: Locavore
Mintel Futures: East Meets West
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Sales forecasted to reach $6.5 billion 2018
Sales and forecast of nut-based spreads and sweet spreads
Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, at current prices, 2008-18
Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2008-18
Fan chart forecast
Figure 12: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, at current prices, 2008-18
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
The increased snacking occasion
Declining households with children make room for new targets
Nut allergies and processing concerns
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
DIY approach attractive to health-conscious consumers
Other categories dip into the spreads space
Figure 13: Hershey’s spreads website, February 2014
All-in-one breakfast items prove competitive
Figure 14: Eggo Drizzlers print ad, July/August 2013
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Nut spreads continue strong growth, fruit spreads somewhat stable
Sales of nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, by segment
Figure 15: Total US retail sales of nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, by segment, at current prices, 2011 and 2013
Nut butter sales return to pre price hike levels
Sales and forecast of peanut butter and other nut butters
Figure 16: Total US retail sales of peanut butter and other nut butters, at current prices, 2008-13
Sweet spreads struggle to progress
Sales and forecast of jams, jellies, and fruit butters
Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of jams, jellies, and fruit butters, at current prices, 2008-13
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Other retail channels gaining traction
Sales of nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, by channel
Figure 18: Total US retail sales of nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, by channel, at current prices, 2011 and 2013
Slowing supermarket sales
Figure 19: US supermarket sales of nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, at current prices, 2008-13
Other retail channels proving competitive
Figure 20: US sales of nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, through other retail channels, at current prices, 2008-13
LEADING COMPANIES
Key points
J.M. Smucker Co. maintains lead, strong growth for Ferrero
Manufacturer sales of nut-based spreads and fruit spreads
Figure 21: MULO sales of nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
BRAND SHARE – NUT-BASED SPREADS
Key points
Strong growth for J.M. Smucker brands
Skippy thrives after Hormel acquisition
ConAgra loses market share, Ferrero has increased competition
Manufacturer sales of nut-based spreads
Figure 22: MULO sales of nut-based spreads, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
Consistent purchase measures across the segment
Figure 23: Key purchase measures for the top brands of peanut butter, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 29, 2013 (current) and Dec. 29, 2012 (year ago)
BRAND SHARE – SWEET SPREADS
Key points
Smucker’s maintains strong segment presence, though sales dip
Welch’s Naturals proves successful
Private label represents second-largest market share
Gourmet interests boost Bonne Maman sales
Manufacturer sales of sweet spreads
Figure 24: MULO sales of sweet spreads, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
Strongest brand loyalty for private label
Figure 25: Key purchase measures for the top brands of jam, jelly, and preserves, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 29, 2013 (current) and Dec. 29, 2012 (year ago)
INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS
New products, extensions represent most launches
Figure 26: nut-based spreads and sweet spreads launches, by private label, December 2012-13
Figure 27: Nut-based spreads and sweet spreads product launches, by launch type, December 2012-13
Naturally on trend
Figure 28: Nut-based spreads and sweet spreads product claims, top five, 2009-13
Figure 29: Nut-based spreads and sweet spreads product claims, top 10, December 2012-13
On-the-go packaging
Beyond peanuts
Added nutrition
An Ethnic Influence
MARKETING STRATEGIES
Overview of the brand landscape
Theme: Highlighting versatility of spreads with recipes
Figure 30: Smucker’s Pairings website, February 2013
Theme: Focusing on healthier, more natural options
Figure 31: Smucker’s Natural Fruit Spreads print ad, July 2013
Figure 32: Better n’ Butter print ad, June 2013
Theme: An indulgent opportunity
Figure 33: Hershey’s Spreads TV ad, January 2014
Figure 34: Philadelphia Snack Delights print ad, June 2013
Theme: Running multimedia campaigns
Figure 35: Peanut Butter & Co. Vine video, April 2013
HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION AND PURCHASES
Key points
Household consumption nears saturation
Figure 36: Household consumption of peanut butter and jams, jellies, or preserves, July 2012-September 2013
Figure 37: Household purchase of nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, by age, December 2013
Figure 38: Household purchase of nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, by presence of children in household, December 2013
Store brand consumption increasing over time
Figure 39: Brands of peanut butter eaten, July 2007-September 2013
Figure 40: Brands of jams, jellies, or preserves eaten, July 2007-September 2013
TYPE AND FLAVOR PREFERENCES
Key points
Traditional varieties most popular across segments
Figure 41: Types of peanut butter eaten, by age, July 2012-September 2013
Figure 42: Types of jams, jellies, or preserves eaten, by age, July 2012-September 2013
Opportunity for flavor innovation
Figure 43: Flavors of jams, jellies, or preserves eaten, by age, July 2012-September 2013
USAGE OCCASIONS
Key points
Meal occasions most popular
Figure 44: Nut-based spreads and sweet spreads usage occasions, December 2013
Younger consumers use peanut butter as a snack, ingredient
Figure 45: Nut-based spreads and sweet spreads usage occasions – Peanut butter, by age, December 2013
Use of other nut- or seed-based spreads similar across genders
Figure 46: Nut-based spreads and sweet spreads usage occasions – Other nut- or seed-based spread such as almond butter or sunflower seed butter, by gender, December 2013
iGen/Millennials more diverse in use of fruit spreads
Figure 47: Nut-based spreads and sweet spreads usage occasions – Fruit jelly, jam, marmalade, or other fruit preserves, by generations, December 2013
IMPORTANT FACTORS WHEN PURCHASING
Key points
Price most influential on spread purchases overall
Figure 48: Important factors when purchasing nut-based and sweet spreads, by age, December 2013
Households with children prefer flavor, packaging options
Figure 49: Important factors when purchasing nut-based and sweet spreads, by presence of children in household, December 2013
Price most important for peanut butter purchases
Figure 50: Important factors when purchasing nut-based and sweet spreads, by household purchase of nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, December 2013
Packaging, flavor, more influential on sweet-spread purchases
Figure 51: Important factors when purchasing nut-based and sweet spreads, by household purchase of nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, December 2013
NUTRITIONAL ATTRIBUTES CONSIDERED
Key points
A natural preference
Figure 52: Nutritional attributes considered when purchasing nut-based and sweet spreads, December 2013
Households with children more interested in gourmet, nutritious spreads
Figure 53: Nutritional attributes considered when purchasing peanut butter, by presence of children in household, December 2013
iGen/Millennials want organic, premium, and local
Figure 54: Nutritional attributes considered when purchasing peanut butter, by generations, December 2013
Men more likely to consider local, allergen-free spreads
Figure 55: Nutritional attributes considered when purchasing other nut-based or seed-based spreads, by gender and age, December 2013
Sugar-related claims most important for fruit spread purchases
Figure 56: Nutritional attributes considered when purchasing fruit jelly, jam, marmalade, or other fruit preserves, by generations, December 2013
INTEREST IN NUT-BASED AND SWEET-SPREAD ITEMS
Key points
Younger consumers seek more adventurous flavors
Figure 57: Nut-based spreads and sweet spreads interested in seeing more of, by age, December 2013
More innovation needed for other nut-based spreads
Figure 58: Nut-based spreads and sweet spreads interested in seeing more of, by household purchase of nut-based spreads, December 2013
Marmalade purchasers most interested in new varieties
Figure 59: Nut-based spreads and sweet spreads interested in seeing more of, by household purchase of sweet spreads, December 2013
ATTITUDES TOWARD NUT-BASED SPREADS AND SWEET SPREADS
Key points
A need for more healthy, local spreads
Figure 60: Agreement with attitudes toward nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, by age, December 2013
Natural, organic, key for product development
Figure 61: Agreement with attitudes toward nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, by household purchase of nut-based spreads, December 2013
Figure 62: Agreement with attitudes toward nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, by household purchase of sweet spreads, December 2013
RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
Other races more interested in non-peanut butter spreads
Figure 63: Household purchase of nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, by race and Hispanic origin, December 2013
Non-Whites most impacted by packaging, flavor
Figure 64: Important factors when purchasing nut-based and sweet spreads, by race and Hispanic origin, December 2013
Peanut butter with natural ingredients, vitamins more appealing to non-Whites
Figure 65: Nutritional attributes considered when purchasing peanut butter, by race and Hispanic origin, December 2013
Hispanics most interested in fruit spreads with reduced claims
Figure 66: Nutritional attributes considered when purchasing fruit jelly, jam, marmalade, or other fruit preserves, by race and Hispanic origin, December 2013
Strong ethnic interest in flavor- and function-based innovation
Figure 67: Nut-based spreads and sweet spreads interested in seeing more of, by race and Hispanic origin, December 2013
Ethnic groups more interested in health claims, organic items
Figure 68: Agreement with attitudes toward nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, by race and Hispanic origin, December 2013
CONSUMER SEGMENTATION
Figure 69: Nut-based spreads and sweet spreads clusters, December, 2013
Group one: The Savvy Spreaders
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Group two: The Super Spreaders
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Group three: The Skeptical Spreaders
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Cluster characteristic tables
Figure 70: Target clusters, December 2013
Figure 71: Household purchase of nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, by target clusters, December 2013
Figure 72: Nut-based spreads and sweet spreads usage occasions – Peanut butter, by target clusters, December 2013
Figure 73: Nut-based spreads and sweet spreads usage occasions – Other nut- or seed-based spread such as almond butter or sunflower seed butter, by target clusters, December 2013
Figure 74: Nut-based spreads and sweet spreads usage occasions – Fruit jelly, jam, marmalade, or other fruit preserves, by target clusters, December 2013
Figure 75: Important factors when purchasing nut-based and sweet spreads, by target clusters, December 2013
Figure 76: Nutritional attributes considered when purchasing peanut butter, by target clusters, December 2013
Figure 77: Nutritional attributes considered when purchasing other nut-based or seed-based spreads, by target clusters, December 2013
Figure 78: Nutritional attributes considered when purchasing fruit jelly, jam, marmalade, or other fruit preserves, by target clusters, December 2013
Figure 79: Nut-based spreads and sweet spreads interested in seeing more of, by target clusters, December 2013
Figure 80: Agreement with attitudes toward nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, by target clusters, December 2013
Cluster demographic tables
Figure 81: Target clusters, by demographic, December 2013
Cluster methodology
Figure 82: Agreement with attitudes toward nut-based spreads and sweet spreads, by target clusters, December 2013
CORRESPONDENCE ANALYSIS
Methodology
Other nut-based and seed spreads viewed as recipe ready
Figure 83: Correspondence analysis, March 2014
Figure 84: Nut-based spreads and sweet spreads usage occasions, March 2014
APPENDIX – MARKET DRIVERS
Health and lifestyle
Figure 85: American adults by weight category as determined by body mass index (BMI), 2008-Oct. 28, 2013
Childhood and teen obesity – Highest in decades
Figure 86: Prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged 2-19, 1971-2010
Consumer confidence
Figure 87: University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment (ICS), 2007-14
Unemployment
Figure 88: US unemployment rate, by month, 2002-14
Figure 89: US unemployment and underemployment rates, 2007-14
Figure 90: Number of employed civilians in US, 2007-14
Retail channels
Figure 91: Distribution of expenditures on food for off-premise consumption, by channel, 1993-2012
Racial, ethnic population growth
Figure 92: US population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2009, 2014, and 2019
Figure 93: Households with children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2013
Shifting US demographics
Figure 94: US population, by age, 2009, 2014, and 2019
Figure 95: US households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
APPENDIX – OTHER USEFUL CONSUMER TABLES
Figure 96: Nutritional attributes considered when purchasing fruit jelly, jam, marmalade, or other fruit preserves, by presence of children in household, December 2013
Figure 97: Types of jams, jellies, or preserves eaten, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2012-September 2013
Figure 98: Nut-based spreads and sweet spreads usage occasions – Fruit jelly, jam, marmalade, or other fruit preserves, by race and Hispanic origin, December 2013
APPENDIX – INFORMATION RESOURCES INC. BUILDERS PANEL DATA DEFINITIONS
Information Resources Inc. Consumer Network Metrics
APPENDIX – TRADE ASSOCIATIONS