Package vs Independent Holidays - UK - February 2014

INTRODUCTION
Definition
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Long-term shift to independent bookings stalled during the recession…
…but 2014 should see independent bookings return to growth
Figure 1: Forecast volume of UK overseas independent holidays, 2008-18
Figure 2: Forecast volume of UK overseas package holidays, 2008-18
Market factors
Evolution of price comparison tools to drive independent booking
PTD reform to grant financial protection to more independent products
Reforms could also see firms leave the UK for cheaper regulation
Low-cost airfares will raise the appeal of independent bookings
No major failures could dampen demand for protection
Companies, brands and innovation
Top eight ATOL holders increased capacity in 2013
Lastminute.com seeks ‘spontaneity champion’
Kuoni launches in-store smell promotion
Momondo launches Flight Insight
Thomas Cook partners with Brand USA
The consumer
Over half of holidaymakers booked independently
Figure 3: Holiday booking method, December 2013
Cost and convenience are primary drivers behind package bookings
Figure 4: Motivations behind booking a package, December 2013
Four in 10 independent bookers enjoy the research and planning process
Figure 5: Motivations behind booking independently, December 2013
Over half of people have taken an all-inclusive holiday
Figure 6: Experience of all-inclusive holidays, December 2013
Value and spending controls are key drivers for all-inclusive
Figure 7: Attitudes towards all-inclusive holidays, December 2013
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
How can package brands better compete against click-through and comparison sites?
How will PTD reform affect holiday booking methods?
How can brands better attract DIY enthusiasts?
What are the prospects for all-inclusive products in 2014?
TREND APPLICATION
Trend: The Real Thing
Trend: Guiding Choice
Mintel Futures: Human
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Evolution of price comparison tools to drive independent booking
PTD reform to grant financial protection to more independent products
Reforms could also see firms leave the UK for cheaper regulation
Low-cost airfares will raise the appeal of independent bookings
No major failures could dampen demand for protection
Figure 8: ATOL tour operator failures/closures in the UK, October 2012-November 2013
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points
Lastminute.com seeks ‘spontaneity champion’
Kuoni launches in-store smell promotion
Momondo launches Flight Insight
Thomas Cook partners with Brand USA
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Long-term shift to independent bookings stalled during the recession…
Figure 9: Forecast volume of UK overseas package and independent holiday markets, 2008-18
… but 2014 should see independent bookings return to growth
Holidaymaker spending will follow the same trend
Figure 10: Forecast value of UK overseas package and independent holiday markets, 2008-18
Fan charts
Figure 11: Forecast volume of UK overseas independent holidays, 2008-18
Figure 12: Forecast volume of UK overseas package holidays, 2008-18
Figure 13: Forecast value of UK overseas independent holidays, 2008-18
Figure 14: Forecast value of UK overseas package holidays, 2008-18
Forecast methodology
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Long-haul package holidays have outperformed independent
Figure 15: Package vs independent overseas holidays, by long-haul vs short-haul, 2008-13
High airfares have seen flight packages outperform the market
Figure 16: Package vs independent overseas holidays, by transport method, 2008-13
Package holidays to Mexico increase 48%
Figure 17: Top 10 overseas package holiday destinations, by volume, 2012 and 2013
North Africa and Caribbean are dominated by package bookings
Figure 18: Top 10 overseas holiday destinations, by market share of package bookings, 2008 and 2013
MARKET SHARE
Key points
Top eight ATOL holders increased capacity in 2013
Figure 19: Passengers licensed under ATOL protection, by top 10 ATOL holders, 2011-13
THE CONSUMER – HOLIDAY BOOKING METHOD
Key points
Over half of holidaymakers booked independently
Figure 20: Holiday booking method, December 2013
Package holidays have a strong family-friendly positioning
ABs favour independent breaks to Europe over packaged products
THE CONSUMER – MOTIVATIONS BEHIND BOOKING A PACKAGE
Key points
Cost and convenience are primary drivers behind package bookings
Figure 21: Motivations behind booking a package, December 2013
A quarter of package bookers wanted financial protection
Low-deposit schemes have little impact on booking methods
THE CONSUMER – MOTIVATIONS BEHIND BOOKING INDEPENDENTLY
Key points
Four in 10 independent bookers enjoy the research and planning process
Figure 22: Motivations behind booking independently, December 2013
A third of independent bookers secured cheaper deals
A quarter of independent bookers never considered a package holiday
THE CONSUMER – EXPERIENCE OF ALL-INCLUSIVE HOLIDAYS
Key points
Over half of people have taken an all-inclusive holiday…
Figure 23: Experience of all-inclusive holidays, December 2013
… but a fifth who have taken one would not like to take another
THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS ALL-INCLUSIVE HOLIDAYS
Key points
Value and spending controls are key drivers for all-inclusive holidays
Figure 24: Attitudes towards all-inclusive holidays, December 2013
Awareness of unexpected costs is not harming demand
One in five think all-inclusive holidays lack cultural authenticity
Concern over impact on local economies is low
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – HOLIDAY BOOKING METHOD
Figure 25: Holiday booking method – any holiday, by demographics, December 2013
Figure 26: Holiday booking method – a holiday in Europe, by demographics, December 2013
Figure 27: Holiday booking method – a holiday outside of Europe, by demographics, December 2013
Figure 28: Holiday booking method – a holiday in the UK, by demographics, December 2013
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – MOTIVATIONS BEHIND BOOKING A PACKAGE
Figure 29: Motivations behind booking a package, by demographics, December 2013
Figure 30: Motivations behind booking a package, by demographics, December 2013 (continued)
Figure 31: Motivations behind booking a package, by booking method, December 2013
Figure 32: Motivations behind booking a package, by motivations behind booking a package, December 2013
Figure 33: Motivations behind booking a package, by motivations behind booking a package, December 2013 (continued)
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – MOTIVATIONS BEHIND BOOKING INDEPENDENTLY
Figure 34: Motivations behind booking independently, by demographics, December 2013
Figure 35: Motivations behind booking independently, by demographics, December 2013 (continued)
Figure 36: Motivations behind booking independently, by booking method – Any, December 2013
Figure 37: Motivations behind booking independently, by motivations behind booking independently, December 2013
Figure 38: Motivations behind booking independently, by motivations behind booking independently, December 2013 (continued)
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – EXPERIENCE OF ALL-INCLUSIVE HOLIDAYS
Figure 39: Experience of all-inclusive holidays, by demographics, December 2013
Figure 40: Experience of all-inclusive holidays, by demographics, December 2013 (continued)
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS ALL-INCLUSIVE HOLIDAYS
Figure 41: Attitudes towards all-inclusive holidays, by demographics, December 2013
Figure 42: Attitudes towards all-inclusive holidays, by demographics, December 2013 (continued)
Figure 43: Attitudes towards all-inclusive holidays, by experience of all-inclusive holidays, December 2013
Figure 44: Experience of all-inclusive holidays, by attitudes towards all-inclusive holidays, December 2013
Figure 45: Experience of all-inclusive holidays, by attitudes towards all-inclusive holidays, December 2013 (continued)