Fragrances - US - September 2013

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: Total U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of fragrances, at current prices, 2008-18
Market factors
Aging population creates challenges for fragrance industry
Figure 2: U.S. population, by age, 2013 and 2018
Economic indicators improving
The consumer
Fragrance market impacted by scented line extension items
Figure 3: Usage of fragrance and scented line extension items, any, June/July 2013
Fragrance is part of daily routine for some, viewed as a special treat for others
Figure 4: Top five reasons for wearing fragrance, June/July 2013
Consumers interested in added benefits and new forms
Figure 5: Any interest in new product forms/benefits, by gender, June/July 2013
Majority of respondents interested in fragrance box subscriptions
Figure 6: Any interest in retailing opportunities, by gender, June/July 2013
Interest in refillable and customized packaging options skews young
Figure 7: Interest in packaging, by gender by age, June/July 2013
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
What opportunities are there to improve the struggling mass fragrance market?
Issues
Insights: Creative retailing, appeal to men, expand selection of new forms
How can brands extend fragrance beyond an occasional use item?
Issues
Insights: Identify new usage occasions, add functionality
What opportunities are there to better align retail spaces with consumer shopping habits?
Issues
Insights: Merchandize by benefit, move outside of the fragrance aisle
TREND APPLICATIONS
Trend: Slow it All Down
Trend: Mood to Order
Mintel Futures: Human
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Fragrance category continues to recover
Future growth predicted, though through a cloud of uncertainty
Sales and forecast of fragrances
Figure 8: Total U.S. sales and forecast of fragrances, at current prices, 2008-18
Figure 9: Total U.S. sales and forecast of fragrances, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2008-18
Fan chart forecast
Figure 10: Total U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of fragrances, at current prices, 2008-18
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Aging population creates challenges
Figure 11: Usage of fragrance and scented line extension items, by age, June/July 2013
Improving economy, wealth disparity benefit prestige sector
Figure 12: Household income distribution, 2011
Multicultural populations represent opportunity
Figure 13: Fragrance any usage, by white, black, and Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Scent expands through lower-priced items
Figure 14: Body spray launches, by company, 2012-13*
Scented shower products are most used line extension product
Figure 15: Fragrance usage, June-July 2013
Women, younger consumers drive use of line extension items
Figure 16: Line extension fragrance, any usage, by gender, June-July 2013
Figure 17: Line extension fragrance, any usage, by gender and age, June-July 2013
Line extension items appeal to budget-conscious consumers
Figure 18: Line extension fragrance, any usage, by gender and household income, June-July 2013
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Women’s fragrances outpacing men’s in terms of sales, share
Sales of fragrances, by segment
Figure 19: Sales of fragrances, segmented by type, 2011 and 2013 (est)
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE – WOMEN’S FRAGRANCES
Key points
Women’s fragrances on an upward trajectory
Sales and forecast of women’s fragrances
Figure 20: Total U.S. sales and forecast of women’s fragrances, at current prices, 2008-18
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE – MEN’S FRAGRANCES
Key points
Men’s fragrance segment still recovering from recession
Sales and forecast of men’s fragrances
Figure 21: Total U.S. sales and forecast of men’s fragrances, at current prices, 2008-18
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Fragrance sales dominated by other retail channels
Sales of fragrances, by channel
Figure 22: Retail sales of fragrances, by channel, 2011 and 2013
Prestige retailers prospering while mass fragrance market struggles
Figure 23: Retail sales of fragrances, by channel, at current prices, 2008-13
BRAND USAGE
Key points
Old Spice, Axe are most used brands among men
Young women are using Bath & Body Works and Victoria’s Secret
Figure 24: Brands of aftershave and cologne used, by gender and age, January 2012-March 2013
Figure 25: Brands of perfume/cologne/toilet water used, by gender and age, January 2012-March 2013
INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS
New product launch trends
Figure 26: Fragrance product launches, by subcategory, 2008-13*
Category innovations
Fragrance subscription boxes
Natural/vegan fragrances
Figure 27: Share of fragrance product launches, by botanical/herbal and ethical claims, 2008-13*
Nighttime fragrances
Smell like your favorite…
…destination
…dessert
…mythical or magical creature
…season
…university
MARKETING STRATEGIES
Overview of the brand landscape
Theme: Celebrity endorsements
Figure 28: Katy Perry killer queen ad, 2013
Figure 29: Taylor Swift Taylor ad, 2013
Theme: Packaging
Theme: Sexual attraction
Figure 30: Gucci Guilty Black ad, 2013
Figure 31: David Beckham Classic photo shoot, 2013
SOCIAL MEDIA
Key points
 KEY SOCIAL MEDIA METRICS
Figure 32: Key brand metrics, fragrance brands, August 2013
Market overview
Brand usage and awareness
Figure 33: Usage and awareness of selected fragrance brands, July 2013
Interaction with brands
Figure 34: Interaction with selected fragrance brands, July 2013
Online conversations
Figure 35: Online conversations on selected Fragrance brands, July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
Where are people talking about fragrance brands?
Figure 36: Online conversations on selected fragrance brands, by page type, July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
What are people talking about?
Figure 37: Types of conversations around fragrance brands, July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
Figure 38: Types of conversations around selected fragrance brands, by month, July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
 BRAND ANALYSIS
Chanel
Figure 39: Chanel social media indicators, August 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
Victoria’s Secret
Figure 40: Victoria’s Secret key social media indicators, August 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
Dolce & Gabbana
Figure 41: Dolce & Gabbana key social media indicators, August 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
Ralph Lauren
Figure 42: Ralph Lauren key social media indicators, august 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
Estée Lauder
Figure 43: Estée Lauder key social media indicators, August 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
Calvin Klein
Figure 44: Calvin Klein key social media indicators, August 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
USAGE
Key points
Majority of women use perfume
Age impacts use of fine fragrance
Figure 45: Fine fragrance any usage, by gender, June-July 2013
Figure 46: Fine fragrance any usage, by gender and age, June-July 2013
Budget-conscious women turning to other fragrance formats
Figure 47: Fine fragrance any usage, by gender and household income, June-July 2013
Users of Victoria’s Secret, Dolce & Gabbana are an engaged audience
Figure 48: Any fragrance usage, by each female brand used, June-July 2013
Figure 49: Any fragrance usage, by each male brand used, June-July 2013
Figure 50: Any interest in new product forms/benefits, by brands for women, June-July 2013
Figure 51: Any interest in new product forms/benefits, by brands for men, June-July 2013
FRAGRANCE SELECTION
Key points
Sampling influences purchase decisions
Figure 52: Fine fragrance selection, by gender, June-July 2013
Young women more likely to exhibit budget-conscious behavior
Brands have opportunity to extend advertising efforts among young men
Figure 53: Fine fragrance selection, by gender and age, June-July 2013
REASONS FOR WEARING FRAGRANCE
Key points
Women motivated by emotional benefits of wearing fine fragrance
Men more likely to be occasional users of fine fragrance
Figure 54: Reasons for wearing fine fragrance, by gender, June-July 2013
Figure 55: Reasons for wearing fine fragrance, by gender and age, June-July 2013
INTEREST IN PRODUCT INNOVATIONS – FORMS/BENEFITS
Key points
Fragrances for clothing/fabric generate highest level of interest
New forms and benefits appeal to young category users
Figure 56: Interest in new product forms/benefits, June-July 2013
Figure 57: Any interest in new product forms/benefits, by gender, June-July 2013
Figure 58: Any interest in new product forms/benefits, by gender and age, June-July 2013
Multiple-benefit fragrances appeal to budget-conscious consumers
Figure 59: Any interest in new product forms/benefits, by gender and household income, June-July 2013
Characteristics of those interested in hair perfume
Overview of CHAID analysis
Opportunity to reach those interested in hair perfume
Figure 60: Interest in new fragrance benefits/forms, CHAID Table output, July 2013
INTEREST IN PRODUCT INNOVATIONS – RETAILING OPPORTUNITIES
Key points
Women enthused by fragrance subscription boxes
Mobile apps could be opportunity to target young men
Figure 61: Interest in retailing opportunities, June-July 2013
Figure 62: Any interest in retailing opportunities, by gender, June-July 2013
Figure 63: Any interest in retailing opportunities, by gender and age, June-July 2013
INTEREST IN PRODUCT INNOVATIONS – PACKAGING
Key points
Refillable fragrance bottles appeal to budget-conscious and eco-friendly consumers
Interest in customized and adorned packaging options skews young
Figure 64: Interest in packaging, June-July 2013
Figure 65: Any interest in packaging, by gender, June-July 2013
Figure 66: Any interest in packaging, by gender and age, June-July 2013
ATTITUDES TOWARD FRAGRANCE
Key points
Fragrance gifting popular, though some prefer to select their own scent
Mass retailers may not be viewed as fragrance destinations
Figure 67: Attitudes toward fragrance, by gender and age, June-July 2013
Younger respondents experiment and want to learn more, but also confused
Figure 68: Attitudes toward fragrance, by gender, June-July 2013
RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
Multicultural consumers are highly involved in the category
Figure 69: Fragrance any usage, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
Black shoppers are seeking value, more information
Asian consumers motivated by luxury
Figure 70: Fine fragrance selection, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
Figure 71: Household income distribution by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2011
Figure 72: Attitudes toward fragrance, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
New benefits, forms, and packaging appeal to multicultural shoppers
Figure 73: Interest in new product forms/benefits, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
Figure 74: Interest in new product retailing opportunities, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
Figure 75: Interest in new product packaging, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
CONSUMER SEGMENTATION
Figure 76: Fragrance clusters, June-July 2013
Group one: Habituals
Opportunities
Group two: Basic
Opportunities
Group three: Involved
Opportunities
Cluster characteristic tables
Figure 77: Fragrance any usage, by target clusters, June-July 2013
Figure 78: Fine fragrance selection, by target clusters, June-July 2013
Figure 79: Reasons for wearing fine fragrance, by target clusters, June-July 2013
Figure 80: Interest in new product forms/benefits, by target clusters, June-July 2013
Figure 81: Interest in new product retailing opportunities, by target clusters, June-July 2013
Figure 82: Interest in new product packaging, by target clusters, June-July 2013
Figure 83: Attitudes toward fragrance, by target clusters, June-July 2013
Cluster demographics
Figure 84: Target clusters, by demographic, June-July 2013
Cluster methodology
APPENDIX – OTHER USEFUL CONSUMER TABLES
Fragrance usage
Figure 85: Fragrance, any usage, by household income, June-July 2013
Figure 86: Fragrance, regular usage, by gender and age, June-July 2013
Fine fragrance selection
Figure 87: Fine fragrance selection, by gender and household income, June-July 2013
Reasons for wearing fine fragrance
Figure 88: Reasons for wearing fine fragrance, by gender and household income, June-July 2013
Figure 89: Reasons for wearing fine fragrance, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
Interest in product innovations – retailing opportunities
Figure 90: Any interest in retailing opportunities, by gender and household income, June-July 2013
Attitudes toward fragrance
Figure 91: Attitudes toward fragrance, by gender and household income, June-July 2013
APPENDIX – CHAID ANALYSIS
Methodology
Figure 92: Interest in new personal care products – CHAID tree output, July 2013
APPENDIX – SOCIAL MEDIA
Brand usage or awareness
Figure 93: Brand usage or awareness, June-July 2013
Figure 94: Brand usage or awareness, June-July 2013 (continued)
Figure 95: Chanel usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
Figure 96: Estée Lauder usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
Figure 97: Victoria’s Secret usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
Figure 98: Dolce & Gabbana usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
Figure 99: Ralph Lauren usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
Figure 100: Calvin Klein usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
Activities done
Figure 101: Activities done, June-July 2013
Figure 102: Activities done, June-July 2013 (continued)
Figure 103: Chanel – Activities done, by demographics, June-July 2013
Figure 104: Estée Lauder – Activities done, by demographics, June-July 2013
Figure 105: Victoria’s Secret – Activities done, by demographics, June-July 2013
Figure 106: Ralph Lauren – Activities done, by demographics, June-July 2013
Figure 107: Calvin Klein – Activities done, by demographics, June-July 2013
Online conversations
Figure 108: Online conversations on selected fragrance brands, July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
Figure 109: Online conversations on selected fragrance brands, by page type, July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
Figure 110: Types of conversations around fragrance brands, July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
Figure 111: Types of conversations around selected fragrance brands, by month, July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
Figure 112: Types of conversations around selected fragrance brands, by page type July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
APPENDIX – MARKET DRIVERS
Consumer confidence
Figure 113: University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment (ICS), 2007-13
Unemployment
Figure 114: U.S. Unemployment rate, by month, 2002-13
Figure 115: U.S. unemployment and underemployment rates, 2007-13
Figure 116: Number of employed civilians in U.S., in thousands, 2007-13
Racial, ethnic population growth
Figure 117: U.S. population by race and Hispanic origin, 2008, 2013, and 2018
Figure 118: Households with children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2012
Shifting U.S. demographics
Figure 119: U.S. population, by age, 2008-18
Figure 120: U.S. households, by presence of own children, 2002-12
APPENDIX – TRADE ASSOCIATIONS