Cake and Cake Bars - UK - June 2012

INTRODUCTION
Definition
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: UK retail sales of cakes and cake bars, by segment, 2009-12
Forecast
Figure 2: Forecast of UK retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, 2007-17
Market factors
Cakes and cake bars gain users despite falling numbers of snackers
Health becomes an issue to take note of
Low consumer confidence sees consumers making concession
Operators under pressure from rising production costs
Home baking represents a threat to the take-home market
Population changes present both opportunities and threats
Companies, brands and innovation
Own-labels dominate market sales
Figure 3: Estimated brand shares in the cakes and cake bars market, 2011
Brands continue to struggle to assert themselves
Own-labels also driving the market in terms of NPD
Adspend reaches new heights in 2011
The consumer
User numbers on the rise
Small cakes vs large cakes
Price is the most important consideration when buying cakes
Figure 4: Choice factors when buying cakes and cake bars, April 2012
The majority of users prioritise flavour over calorie content
Figure 5: Users' attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, April 2012
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
How can cake operators balance the demand for health and indulgence?
Should cake operators be looking to tap into kids’ snacking?
Can cake brands follow the example of other snacking markets?
What opportunities exist for cakes and cake bars in terms of shareability?
Can in-store bakeries (ISBs) provide additional avenues for growth?
FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES
A Simple Balance for Health
Make it Mine
2015: Brand Intervention
INTERNAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Falling numbers of Brits claim to snack
Figure 6: Snacking between meals, 2009-11
Satisfying hunger is the most popular reason to snack
Figure 7: Reasons for snacking – weekdays and weekends, 2011
Large numbers of adults continue to treat themselves
Figure 8: Trends in agreement with statements on the enjoyment of food, 2007-11
Growing public focus on health…
…with obesity now a notable problem
Figure 9: Trends in Body Mass Index segments, 2007-11
Figure 10: Agreement with statements regarding diet and health, 2011
Figure 11: Trends in agreement with statements on checking food labels, 2007-11
BROADER MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
No improvements to consumer confidence in sight
Figure 12: Consumer Confidence Index, monthly, January 2007-April 2012
Figure 13: RPI, detailed indices for food and cake/biscuits, January 2011- April 2012
Rising commodity prices impacting upon retail prices
Figure 14: Consumer price indices – CPI annual % change, 1997-2012
Demographic changes create opportunities and threats
Figure 15: Projected trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2012-17
Socio-economic group E may hold the key to sustained growth
Figure 16: Changes in the adult socio-economic structure of the UK population, 2012-17
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Cakes and cake bars one of the few snack markets to struggle in recent years…
Figure 17: Performance of selected markets competing with cakes and cake bars, 2007-11
…despite user numbers rising
Figure 18: Trends in usage of selected foods competing with cakes and cake bars, 2007-11
Home baking also proving to be a growing threat
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Strengths
Weaknesses
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points
Supermarkets are drivers of NPD in a fragmented market environment
Figure 19: Product launches within the UK cakes and cake bars market, by manufacturer, 2011
Brands come under increasing pressure from the private labels
Figure 20: Product launches within the UK cakes and cake bars market, own-label vs brands, 2008-12
Operators polish their ethical credentials
Figure 21: Product launches within the UK cakes and cake bars market, by leading claims, 2011
Chocolate remains the flavour of choice
Figure 22: Product launches within the UK cakes and cake bars market, by flavour, 2011
Key themes
Seasonality continues to play an important role
Premium cakes look to appeal to consumers looking to indulge
Vegetable cakes such as carrot cake continue to grow
Companies use more ethical and environmentally friendly packaging for their products
Operators look to promote their British credentials
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
The cakes and cake bars market shows signs of recovery
Figure 23: UK retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, at current and constant prices, 2007-17
Forecast
Figure 24: Forecast of UK retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, 2007-17
Small cakes and cake bars
Figure 25: Forecast of UK retail value sales of small cakes and cake bars, 2007-17
Large/occasion cakes
Figure 26: Forecast of UK retail value sales of large/occasion cakes, 2007-17
Forecast methodology
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Small cakes and cake bars account for 60% of market sales
Figure 27: UK retail sales of cakes and cake bars, by segment, 2009-12
Small cakes/cake bars halts its sales decline
Figure 28: UK retail value sales of small cakes, at current and constant prices, 2007-17
Figure 29: UK retail value sales of small cakes, by type, 2010-12
Large/occasion cakes achieve minor growth in 2012
Figure 30: UK retail value sales of large cakes, at current and constant prices, 2007-17
Figure 31: Estimated UK retail value sales of large cakes, by type, 2010-12
Gluten-free shows signs of growth
MARKET SHARE
Key points
Own-labels continue to dominate the cakes and cake bars market
Figure 32: Estimated brand shares in the cakes and cake bars market, 2010-12
Brands continue to struggle
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
United Biscuits (UB)
Premier Foods
McCambridge Group
Finsbury Food Group
The Fabulous Bakin’ Boys (FBB)
Greencore
BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Key points
Adspend jumps up in 2011
Figure 33: Main monitored media advertising spend in the UK cakes and cake bars market, 2008-12
Own-labels dominate the advertising landscape
Figure 34: Leading advertisers in the UK cakes and cake bars market, 2008-12
Mr Kipling comes to the fore
Figure 35: Leading brands advertised in the UK cakes and cake bars market, 2011
TV advertising dominates
Figure 36: Main monitored media advertising spend in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by media type, 2008-12
CHANNELS TO MARKET
Key points
Supermarkets dominate sales within the cakes market
Figure 37: UK retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, by outlet type, 2009-11
Discounters achieve steady growth…
…while independents come under increasing pressure
CONSUMER – TRENDS IN USAGE
Key points
The market continues to attract new users
Figure 38: Usage of fresh and packeted cakes, 2007-11
Figure 39: Trends in frequency of eating fresh or packeted cakes, 2009-11
Cake consumers adopt wide repertoires
Figure 40: Repertoire of types of cakes and cake bars eaten, April 2012
Afternoon and evening usage grows in popularity
Figure 41: Trends in time of snacking on cakes and biscuits, 2010 and 2011
CONSUMER – USAGE OF SMALL CAKES
Key points
Small cakes eaten weekly by three in ten adults
Figure 42: Types of small cakes and cake bars eaten, April 2012
Cake bars/slices are the most popular type of small cakes
Snacking at home is the most popular occasion for eating small cakes
Figure 43: Occasions for eating small cakes within the last six months, April 2012
CONSUMER – USAGE OF LARGE CAKES
Key points
Large cakes are a less frequent purchase
Figure 44: Types of large cakes and cake bars eaten, April 2012
Whole cakes and sponge rolls face challenges in boosting usage
Large cakes are popular for special occasions but also as desserts
Figure 45: Occasions for eating large cakes within the last six months, April 2012
CONSUMER – INCREASING USAGE
Key points
Better-for-you cakes provide the best route for increasing usage
Figure 46: Factors that would encourage usage of cakes and cake bars, April 2012
Cost also acts as a notable deterrent
Taste and freshness are additional means of boosting usage
CONSUMER – CHOICE FACTORS
Key points
Price is the most important factor when buying cakes and cake bars
Figure 47: Choice factors when buying cakes and cake bars, April 2012
Flavour and freshness also play notable roles
Brand name and health are minority considerations
CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS CAKES AND CAKE BARS
Key points
The majority of users prioritise flavour over calorie content
Figure 48: Users' attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, April 2012
Flavour is of highest importance but health also plays a role
Figure 49: Users' attitudes towards flavour and health in cakes and cake bars, April 2012
Majority prioritise taste over health
Poor taste perception curbs interest in healthier cakes
Small size makes for easy calorie control in cakes
The market is well positioned to tap into kids’ snacking and sharing
Figure 50: Users' attitudes towards moderating consumption of cakes and cake bars, April 2012
Cakes and cake bars suffer from a poor value-for-money image
Figure 51: Users' attitudes towards the cost of cakes and cake bars, April 2012
CONSUMER – TARGET GROUPS
Key points
 FIVE TARGET GROUPS
Figure 52: Target groups for cakes and cake bars, April 2012
Enthusiasts (17%)
Price-conscious (18%)
Traditionalists (18%)
Health-aware (20%)
Disengaged (27%)
APPENDIX – ISSUES IN THE MARKET
APPENDIX – INTERNAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Figure 53: Snacking between meals, by demographics, 2011
Figure 54: Trends in agreement with selected lifestyle statements on eating/cooking habits, 2007-11
Figure 55: Trends in agreement with selected lifestyle statements on eating/cooking habits, by demographics, 2011
Figure 56: Trends in agreement with selected lifestyle statements on eating/cooking habits, by demographics, 2011 (continued)
Figure 57: Trends in agreement with selected lifestyle statements on eating/cooking habits, by demographics, 2011 (continued)
Figure 58: Trends in reasons for snacking – weekdays and weekends, 2009-11
Figure 59: Reasons for snacking on weekdays, by demographics, 2011
Figure 60: Reasons for snacking on weekends, by demographics, 2011
APPENDIX – COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Figure 61: Usage of selected snacks competing with cakes and cake bars, by demographics, 2011
Figure 62: Usage of selected snacks competing with cakes and cake bars, by demographics, 2011 (continued)
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Figure 63: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2012-17
Figure 64: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK small cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2012-17
Figure 65: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK large/occasion cakes market, by value, 2012-17
APPENDIX – BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Figure 66: Leading advertisers in the UK cakes and cake bars market, 2008-12
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – TRENDS IN USAGE
Figure 67: Usage of cakes, by demographics, 2011
Figure 68: Trends in frequency of eating fresh or packeted cakes, 2007-11
Figure 69: Frequency of eating fresh or packeted cakes, by demographics, 2011
Figure 70: Time of snacking on cakes and biscuits, by demographics, 2011
Figure 71: Trends in types of cakes eaten, 2008-11
Figure 72: Types of cakes eaten, by demographics, 2011
Figure 73: Repertoire of types of cakes and cake bars eaten, by demographics, April 2012
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – USAGE OF SMALL CAKES
Figure 74: Types of small cakes and cake bars eaten, April 2012
Figure 75: usage of at least one type of small cake (net), by frequency, by demographics, April 2012
Figure 76: Usage of cake bars and wrapped cake slices, by frequency, by demographics, April 2012
Figure 77: Usage of individual cakes, by frequency, by demographics, April 2012
Figure 78: Usage of mini cakes, by frequency, by demographics, April 2012
Figure 79: Usage of in-store bakery cakes, by frequency, by demographics, April 2012
Figure 80: Usage of doughnuts, by frequency, by demographics, April 2012
Figure 81: Occasions for eating small cakes within the last six months, by demographics, April 2012
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – USAGE OF LARGE CAKES
Figure 82: Types of large cakes and cake bars eaten, April 2012
Figure 83: Usage of at least one type of large cake (net), by frequency, by demographics, April 2012
Figure 84: Usage of slab/loaf/regional cakes, by frequency, by demographics, April 2012
Figure 85: Usage of whole cakes and sponge rolls, by frequency, by demographics, April 2012
Figure 86: Usage of birthday cakes and party bakes, by frequency, by demographics, April 2012
Figure 87: Occasions for eating large cakes within the last six months, by demographics, April 2012
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – INCREASING USAGE
Figure 88: Factors that would encourage usage of cakes and cake bars, by demographics, April 2012
Figure 89: Factors that would encourage usage of cakes and cake bars, by demographics, April 2012 (continued)
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – CHOICE FACTORS
Figure 90: Choice factors when buying cakes and cake bars, by demographics, April 2012
Figure 91: Choice factors when buying cakes and cake bars, by demographics, April 2012 (continued)
Figure 92: Choice factors when buying small cakes and cake bars, by frequency of consumption, April 2012
Figure 93: Choice factors when buying large cakes and cake bars, by frequency of consumption, April 2012
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS CAKES AND CAKE BARS
Figure 94: Users' attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, April 2012
Figure 95: Agreement with the statements ‘Flavour is more important to me than calorie content’ and ‘In moderation, cakes and cake bars are an acceptable part of children’s diets’, by demographics, April 2012
Figure 96: Agreement with the statements ‘Baking cakes at home is an effective way of saving money’ and ‘Cakes are a good snack to share (eg at work)’, by demographics, April 2012
Figure 97: Agreement with the statements ‘I prefer smaller cakes/cake bars as a means of controlling calorie intake’ and ‘I tend to read the nutritional information on the packaging’, by demographics, April 2012
Figure 98: Agreement with the statements ‘I think that healthier cakes also have less flavour/taste’ and ‘Mini formats allow me to indulge on a more frequent basis’, by demographics, April 2012
Figure 99: Agreement with the statements ‘I think that cakes and cake bars are good value for money’ and ‘Branded cakes taste better than standard own-label ones’, by demographics, April 2012
Figure 100: Agreement with the statement ‘I am interested in cakes with nutritional benefits (eg high in fibre)’, by demographics, April 2012
Figure 101: Users' attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, by frequency of consumption, April 2012
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – TARGET GROUPS
Figure 102: Target groups, by demographics, April 2012
Figure 103: Types of cakes eaten, by target groups, April 2012
Figure 104: Occasions for eating small cakes, by target groups, April 2012
Figure 105: Occasions for eating large cakes, by target groups, April 2012
Figure 106: Factors that would encourage usage, by target groups, April 2012
Figure 107: Choice factors, by target groups, April 2012
Figure 108: Grocery shopping habits, by target groups, April 2012
Figure 109: Attitudes towards healthy lifestyles, by target groups, April 2012
Figure 110: Users’ attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, by target groups, April 2012