Long-haul Holidays - UK - March 2012

INTRODUCTION
Definition
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: Volume forecast of long-haul holidays, 2006-16
Figure 2: Value forecast of long-haul holidays, 2006-16*
Long-haul slump: over 600,000 fewer trips in 2011
Latin America to lead growth
Figure 3: Long-haul holidays, percentage volume growth, by region, 2006-11
Caribbean resilience despite APD
Pre-retirement dreams
Market factors
Sri Lanka leads on holiday costs
Figure 4: Post Office Holiday Costs Barometer, January 2012*
Price pressures: APD
Price pressures: oil
Figure 5: Brent crude oil prices, annual average 2006-11, and spot price 6 March 2012
Price pressures: carbon
Living the dream (at last)
BA capacity growth
Companies, brands and innovation
Leading suppliers
Mainstream developments
Kuoni’s new ethical brand
Virgin in Mexico
Trailfinders shifts upmarket
Living on the edge
Long-haul hits the high street
The consumer
Affluent market
Figure 6: Long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, January 2012
Australasia and Canada are ‘dream’ destinations
Figure 7: Long-haul destinations ever visited, January 2012
A fifth of Britons take long-haul honeymoons
Figure 8: Long-haul holiday types ever taken, January 2012
Voluntourism interest
Real and responsible
Figure 9: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, January 2012
Assistance required
Flight costs are major impediment
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
What are the future prospects for ‘long-haul, low-cost’ airlines?
What are the implications of rising airfares (APD taxes and fuel prices) for the future of long-haul holidays?
Are long-haul destination choices becoming or likely to become ‘safer’ and more conservative?
Is there a potential market for long-haul property rentals?
What is the future for travel agents in helping people to plan and book long-haul holidays?
FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES
Trend: No Degree, No Problem
Trend: Retired for Hire
INTERNAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Overseas market flat as domestic growth continues
Figure 10: Domestic vs overseas holidays volume, 2006-11
Average overseas spend drops in 2011
Figure 11: Domestic and overseas holidays expenditure, 2006-11
Figure 12: Total number of trips taken, by region, 2011
Sri Lanka best for resort value
Figure 13: Post Office Holiday Costs Barometer, 2012 and 2011
APD rises and no change to band structure
Figure 14: Air Passenger Duty, April 2012
Peak experiences
Figure 15: Brent crude oil prices, 2006-12
ETS impact
Holiday surcharging is back
Figure 16: ABTA-registered travel companies levying surcharges, February 2012
Low-cost long-haul
BA long-haul capacity to grow?
Dreamliner arrives
Flying on chip fat
BROADER MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Positive signs
Figure 17: GDP quarterly percentage change, Q1 2004-Q4 2011
Figure 18: UK Consumer Confidence Index, March 2011-February 2012
AB growth helpful for long-haul
Figure 19: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2006-16
Growth in 25-34s
Figure 20: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2006-16
The rand and the Rupee
Figure 21: Annual average exchange rates for Sterling against other currencies, 2007-11
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Short-haul substitution
Figure 22: Long-haul vs short-haul holiday volume and expenditure, at current prices, 2006-11
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points
New long-haul routes
Family adventures
Mainstream changes
18-thirtysomething adventures
Fair deal
Tying (and untying) the knot
Holiday affairs
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Long-haul suffers setback
Figure 23: Long-haul holidays volume and expenditure*, 2006-16
Forecast
Figure 24: Volume forecast of long-haul holidays, 2006-16
Figure 25: Value forecast of long-haul holidays, 2006-16*
Forecast methodology
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Latin America to lead growth
Figure 26: Long-haul holidays, by region, 2006-11
Figure 27: Top 20 long-haul destinations, 2006-11
Caribbean, North Africa and Mexico lead package segment
Figure 28: Visits, spending, average spend, proportion of package holidays, duration and spend per night per region, 2010
January-March share slips
Figure 29: Long-haul holidays taken, by quarter, 2006-10
Over-45 share grows
Figure 30: Long-haul holidays taken, by age, 2006-10
Niche long-haul
Figure 31: Type of holiday taken for holidays/short breaks, 2012
Rental opportunity
Figure 32: Type of accommodation used for holidays/short breaks, 2012
Long-haul spend patterns
Figure 33: Total amount spent on holidays* for self and family in the last 12 months (excluding spending money), by region, 2012
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
TUI Travel Plc
Figure 34: TUI UK and Ireland, key financials, 2010 and 2011
Thomas Cook
Figure 35: Thomas Cook Group Plc – UK, India and Middle East segment, key financials, 2010 and 2011
Cosmos/Monarch
Figure 36: Cosmos Holidays plc, key financials, 2009 and 2010
Virgin Holidays
Figure 37: Virgin Holidays, key financials, 2010 and 2011
Kuoni
Figure 38: Kuoni Travel Limited, key financials, 2009 and 2010
Trailfinders
Figure 39: Trailfinders Limited, key financials, 2010 and 2011
TUI Adventure/PEAK Adventure Travel Group
Figure 40: TUI Adventure, key financials, 2010 and 2011
Explore Worldwide
Figure 41: Explore Worldwide Limited, key financials, 2009 and 2010
CHANNELS TO MARKET
Key points
Long-haul research
Figure 42: Research sources used for holidays overseas, 2012
Flight-only agent bookings popular
Figure 43: Method used to book holidays/short breaks, by region, 2012
LONG-HAUL HOLIDAY TAKING
Key points
Three in ten go long-haul in last 12 months
Figure 44: Long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, January 2012
AB, 16-34 peak
LONG-HAUL HOLIDAY DESTINATIONS
Key points
US still dominant – potential for diversification
Figure 45: Long-haul destinations visited, January 2012
LONG-HAUL HOLIDAY TYPES
Key points
All-inclusive rise
Figure 46: Long-haul holiday types taken, January 2012
Honeymooners in for the long-haul
Voluntary potential
Holiday type demographics
Future scope
Destination/holiday type matches
LONG-HAUL HOLIDAY ATTITUDES
Key points
Keep it real
Figure 47: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, January 2012
Long-haul luxury
Expert advice
Key obstacles
Demographics of attitudes
Family constraints
Familiarity preferred
Attitudes and destinations
TARGETING OPPORTUNITIES
Key points
 TARGET GROUPS
Figure 48: Long-haul holidays target groups, January 2012
Authentic Explorers
Demographic profile
Marketing message
Distant Sun Seekers
Demographic profile
Marketing message
Keen But Cautious
Demographic profile
Marketing message
Unengaged
Demographic profile
Marketing message
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Figure 49: Volume forecast of long-haul holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2011-16
Figure 50: Value forecast of long-haul holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2011-16
APPENDIX – LONG-HAUL HOLIDAY TAKING
Figure 51: Most popular long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 52: Next most popular long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, by demographics, January 2012
APPENDIX – LONG-HAUL HOLIDAY DESTINATIONS
Figure 53: Long-haul destinations visited, by most popular long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, January 2012
Figure 54: Long-haul destinations visited, by next most popular long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, January 2012
Figure 55: Long-haul destinations visited, by other long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, January 2012
Figure 56: Most popular long-haul destinations ever visited, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 57: Next most popular long-haul destinations ever visited, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 58: Other long-haul destinations ever visited, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 59: Most popular long-haul destinations visited in the last five years, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 60: Next most popular long-haul destinations visited in the last five years, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 61: Most popular long-haul destinations visited in the past but not in the last five years, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 62: Next most popular long-haul destinations visited in the past but not in the last five years, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 63: Other long-haul destinations visited in the past but not in the last five years, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 64: Most popular long-haul destinations never visited but would like to go, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 65: Next most popular long-haul destinations never visited but would like to go, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 66: Other long-haul destinations never visited but would like to go, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 67: Long-haul destinations never visited and not interested, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 68: Long-haul destinations never visited and not interested (continued), by demographics, January 2012
Figure 69: Other long-haul destinations never visited and not interested, by demographics, January 2012
APPENDIX – LONG-HAUL HOLIDAY TYPES
Figure 70: Long-haul holiday types taken, by most popular long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, January 2012
Figure 71: Long-haul holiday types taken, by next most popular long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, January 2012
Figure 72: Long-haul holiday types taken, by other long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, January 2012
Figure 73: Long-haul holiday types taken, by most popular long-haul destinations visited, January 2012
Figure 74: Long-haul holiday types taken, by next most popular long-haul destinations visited, January 2012
Figure 75: Long-haul holiday types taken, by other long-haul destinations visited, January 2012
Figure 76: Long-haul holiday types taken, by least popular long-haul destinations visited, January 2012
Figure 77: Most popular long-haul holidays ever taken, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 78: Next most popular long-haul holidays ever taken, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 79: Other long-haul holidays ever taken, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 80: Most popular long-haul holiday types taken in the last five years, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 81: Next most popular long-haul holiday types taken in the last five years, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 82: Other long-haul holiday types taken in the last five years, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 83: Most popular long-haul holiday types taken but not in the last five years, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 84: Next most popular long-haul holiday types taken but not in the last five years, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 85: Other long-haul holiday types taken but not in the last five years, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 86: Most popular long-haul holiday types never taken but would like to go, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 87: Next most popular long-haul holiday types never taken but would like to go, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 88: Other long-haul holiday types never taken but would like to go, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 89: Long-haul holiday types never taken and not interested, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 90: Long-haul holiday types never taken and not interested (continued), by demographics, January 2012
Figure 91: Other long-haul holiday types never taken and not interested, by demographics, January 2012
APPENDIX – LONG-HAUL HOLIDAY ATTITUDES
Figure 92: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by most popular long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, January 2012
Figure 93: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by next most popular long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, January 2012
Figure 94: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by other long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, January 2012
Figure 95: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by most popular long-haul destinations ever visited, January 2012
Figure 96: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by next most popular long-haul destinations ever visited, January 2012
Figure 97: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by other long-haul destinations ever visited, January 2012
Figure 98: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by least popular long-haul destinations ever visited, January 2012
Figure 99: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by most popular long-haul destinations visited in the last five years, January 2012
Figure 100: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by next most popular long-haul destinations visited in the last five years, January 2012
Figure 101: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by other long-haul destinations visited in the last five years, January 2012
Figure 102: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by most popular long-haul destinations visited in the past but not in the last five years, January 2012
Figure 103: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by next most popular long-haul destinations visited in the past but not in the last five years, January 2012
Figure 104: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by other long-haul destinations visited in the past but not in the last five years, January 2012
Figure 105: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by most popular long-haul destinations never visited but would like to go, January 2012
Figure 106: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by next most popular long-haul destinations never visited but would like to go, January 2012
Figure 107: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by other long-haul destinations never visited but would like to go, January 2012
Figure 108: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by least popular long-haul destinations never visited but would like to go, January 2012
Figure 109: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by long-haul destinations never visited and not interested, January 2012
Figure 110: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by long-haul destinations never visited and not interested (continued), January 2012
Figure 111: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by long-haul destinations never visited and not interested (continued), January 2012
Figure 112: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by other long-haul destinations never visited and not interested, January 2012
Figure 113: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by most popular long-haul holiday types ever taken, January 2012
Figure 114: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by next most popular long-haul holiday types ever taken, January 2012
Figure 115: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by other long-haul holiday types ever taken, January 2012
Figure 116: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by most popular long-haul holiday types taken in the last five years, January 2012
Figure 117: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by next most popular long-haul holiday types taken in the last five years, January 2012
Figure 118: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by other long-haul holiday types taken in the last five years, January 2012
Figure 119: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by most popular long-haul holiday types taken but not in the last five years, January 2012
Figure 120: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by next most popular long-haul holiday types taken but not in the last five years, January 2012
Figure 121: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by other long-haul holiday types taken but not in the last five years, January 2012
Figure 122: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by most popular long-haul holiday types never taken but would like to go, January 2012
Figure 123: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by next most popular long-haul holiday types never taken but would like to go, January 2012
Figure 124: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by other long-haul holiday types never taken but would like to go, January 2012
Figure 125: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by long-haul holiday types never taken and not interested, January 2012
Figure 126: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by long-haul holiday types never taken and not interested (continued), January 2012
Figure 127: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by other long-haul holiday types never taken and not interested, January 2012
Figure 128: Agreement with most popular statements about long-haul holidays, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 129: Agreement with next most popular statements about long-haul holidays, by demographics, January 2012
Figure 130: Agreement with other statements about long-haul holidays, by demographics, January 2012
APPENDIX – TARGETING OPPORTUNITIES
Figure 131: Attitudes towards long-haul holidays, by target groups, January 2012
Figure 132: Long-haul holidays taken over the last 12 months, by target groups, January 2012
Figure 133: Long-haul destinations visited, by target groups, January 2012
Figure 134: Long-haul holiday types taken, by target groups, January 2012
Figure 135: Target groups, by demographics, January 2012