Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Key takeaways
- The issues
- Other poultry struggles to permeate chicken’s dominance
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- Figure 1: Poultry type consumption, October 2019
- Poultry dependent on habitual behavior
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- Figure 2: Poultry associations, October 2019
- Poultry consumers stuck in the dinner occasion
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- Figure 3: Poultry usage, October 2019
- The opportunities
- Flavors a way forward for dark meat
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- Figure 4: Poultry behaviors by poultry cut consumption, net, October 2019
- New usage can boost excitement and engagement
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- Figure 5: Poultry usage, October 2019
- Jumping on the BFY bandwagon
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- Figure 6: Poultry attributes by protein type consumption, October 2019
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Chicken keeps the category flush
- Plants shake up the protein space
- Ethics raise the bar for protein
- Poultry gets political
Market Size and Forecast
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- Poultry sales remain stalled
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2014-24
Market Breakdown
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- Chicken continues to dominate, steady the category
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 10: Sales of poultry, by segment, percentage change 2017-19
Market Perspective
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- Brands respond to consumer pursuit of protein
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- Figure 11: Percentage of food products with high/added protein claims, 2014-18
- Plant-based proteins everywhere
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- Figure 12: Dietary preferences, February 2019
- Ethical standards crossing into the healthy debate
Market Factors
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- Poultry prices hold steady
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- Figure 13: Changes in consumer food price indexes, year over year and average year to date, August 2018-August 2019
- China lifts four-year ban on US chicken imports
- State legislation begins banning small cages
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Tyson peckish for sales growth
- Happy, healthy birds make top-selling products
- Poultry brands dig deeper into Elevated Convenience
- Plant-based poultry expected to grow
Company and Brand Sales of Poultry
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- Tyson’s losses pave the way for private label to lead
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- Figure 14: Multi-outlet sales of poultry, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Perdue chicken brands move forward
- Chicken
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- Figure 15: Multi-outlet sales of chicken, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Organic, farm fresh brands make gains for Hormel, Cargill and Maxwell
- Other poultry segment
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- Figure 16: Multi-outlet sales of other poultry, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
What’s Working
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- Farm focus
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- Figure 17: Poultry brands with farm fresh messaging, MULO sales 52 weeks, September 2018-19
- Figure 18: Shady Brook Farms video
- Natural birds make healthy sales
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- Figure 19: Poultry brands with organic/natural positioning, MULO sales 52 weeks, September 2018-19
- Figure 20: Poultry product claim growth, percentage change 2017-18
- Cut for convenience
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- Figure 21: Poultry brands with convenience products, MULO sales 52 weeks, September 2018-19
- Figure 22: Poultry products with convenience claims, percentage change 2017-18
What’s Struggling
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- Tyson saddled with a trifecta of woes
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- Figure 23: Tyson poultry products, MULO sales 52 weeks, September 2018-19
- Poultry struggles to stand out among prepared foods
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- Figure 24: Poultry brands with meal kits, MULO sales 52 weeks, September 2018-19
- Legacy plant-based brands stuck in the past
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- Figure 25: Legacy vegetarian poultry brands, MULO sales 52 weeks, September 2018-19
What to Watch
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- Poultry plus plants
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- Figure 26: Plant-based poultry products, MULO sales 52 weeks, September 2018-19
- Figure 27: Perdue Chicken Plus video
- “Slow growth” an attribute to watch
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Health and freshness influence poultry consumption
- Poultry’s place at dinner leaves little time for other occasions
- Consumers need a little excitement
- Keep it clean, natural
- Consumers expect a value
Consumption by Poultry Type
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- Chicken remains at the top of the pecking order
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- Figure 28: Poultry type consumption, October 2019
- Parents consume a wider repertoire of poultry
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- Figure 29: Poultry type consumption, by parental status, October 2019
- Poultry consumption varies by race and origin
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- Figure 30: Poultry type consumption, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2019
Poultry Consumption by Cut
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- Consumption of fresh white meat surpasses other cuts…
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- Figure 31: Poultry type consumption, net, October 2019
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- Figure 32: Poultry type consumption, October 2019
- …but variety, or rather versatility, is the spice of life
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- Figure 33: Poultry type consumption, repertoire analysis, October 2019
- Generational divide between fresh and frozen
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- Figure 34: Poultry cut consumption, by age, October 2019
- Consumers age out of nuggets
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- Figure 35: Poultry cut consumption, net, by age, October 2019
- Parents consume more types of cuts
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- Figure 36: Poultry cut consumption, repertoire analysis, by parental status, October 2019
- Figure 37: Poultry cut consumption, by parental status, October 2019
Poultry Usage
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- Poultry continues to rise to the dinner occasion
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- Figure 38: Poultry usage, October 2019
- Breakfast, snacking are the path to growth
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- Figure 39: Poultry usage, breakfast and lunch, October 2019
- Women leverage poultry in recipes more
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- Figure 40: Poultry usage, by gender, use as an ingredient, October 2019
- Younger consumers more likely to reach for poultry for lunch
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- Figure 41: Poultry usage, by age, lunch, October 2019
Poultry Attributes
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- Act natural
- Animal ethics on the back burner, for now
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- Figure 42: Poultry attributes, October 2019
- TURF analysis
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- Figure 43: TURF analysis – Poultry attributes, October 2019
- Pricier poultry warrants more attributes
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- Figure 44: Poultry attributes by protein type consumption, October 2019
- Don’t forget Value Chasers
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- Figure 45: Poultry attributes, by food and drink segmentation, October 2019
- Women, especially moms, more concerned with health
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- Figure 46: Poultry attributes, by parental status and gender, October 2019
- Older consumers swayed by freshness, younger consumers by wellness
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- Figure 47: Poultry attributes, by age, October 2019
Poultry Attitudes
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- Consumers could use a flavor boost
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- Figure 48: Poultry behaviors, October 2019
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- Figure 49: Directionally fast-growing flavors in new US food product launches, July 2016-June 2019
- Nuggets, dark meat have the most opportunity for flavor expansion
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- Figure 50: Poultry behaviors by poultry cut consumption, net, October 2019
- Foodies ready for the next thing
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- Figure 51: Poultry behaviors, by food and drink segmentation, October 2019
- Parents more interested in innovation
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- Figure 52: Poultry behaviors, by parental status, October 2019
- Figure 53: Perdue Chicken PLUS video
- Flavor interest is unsurprisingly cultural
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- Figure 54: Poultry behaviors, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2019
Poultry Associations
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- Poultry a part of the routine
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- Figure 55: Poultry associations, October 2019
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- Figure 56: Correspondence analysis – Symmetrical map – Poultry perceptions, October 2019
- Value often sacrificed for convenience
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- Figure 57: Poultry associations, good value, October 2019
- Dark meat loses in health, wins in flavor
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- Figure 58: Poultry associations, October 2019
- Parents perceive nuggets more favorably
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- Figure 59: Poultry associations, nuggets/bites, by parental status, October 2019
- Younger consumers need preparation guidance
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- Figure 60: Poultry associations, by age, easy to prepare, October 2019
Price Sensitivity Analysis
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- Consumers unwilling to sacrifice value
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- Figure 61: Price sensitivity – A 25 oz bag of frozen, unflavored chicken nuggets – Price summary table, October 2019
- Figure 62: Price sensitivity – A 25 oz bag of frozen, unflavored chicken nuggets – Optimal price, October 2019
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- Figure 63: Price sensitivity – A 25 oz bag of frozen, unflavored chicken nuggets – Threshold prices, October 2019
- Figure 64: Price sensitivity – A 25 oz bag of frozen, unflavored all natural chicken nuggets with no artificial ingredients or preservatives – Optimal price, October 2019
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- Figure 65: Price sensitivity – A 25 oz bag of frozen, unflavored all natural chicken nuggets with no artificial ingredients or preservatives – Threshold prices, October 2019
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Food and drink segmentation
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 67: Total US retail sales of poultry, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
- Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of chicken, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of chicken, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
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- Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of other poultry, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 71: Total US retail sales and forecast of other poultry, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
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Appendix – Retail Channels
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- Figure 72: Total US retail sales of poultry, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 73: Multi-outlet sales of poultry, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
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